Kay Serrar wrote:
spot wrote:
Kay Serrar wrote:
spot wrote:
Kay Serrar wrote:
There are very regular incidents involving deaths of soldiers on the Indian-Pakistani border. There is little reason to think this will escalate.
This is the first time in decades that each country's aircraft have crossed the LOC to conduct airstrikes on each other's territory; this is far, far different from previous incidents.
This has been going on since 1980 and escalation is not the primary issue between nuclear powers; rather, an accident is the existential scare. Pakistan has already agreed to release the captured Indian pilot. The underlying tension over Kashmir will not be resolved any time soon. Probably not in our lifetimes.
If this was a serious issue you would have seen the INR weaken more dramatically. See attached chart which shows a slight weakening yesterday (but remaining within the recent range) and then strengthening again today - but very minor moves.
Again, yes, there have been skirmishes going on along the LOC, but airstrikes across the LOC have NOT been a part of those skirmishes. This is very new and not comparable. Now, that isn't to say that I think this will escalate further, especially if the pilot is released soon, but to suggest this is just more of the same is not correct.
I get that, and it certainly hit the headlines (to the level that BK became alarmed) more than the usual ongoing skirmishes. I was just looking to put some perspective on it for those who may be unfamiliar.
The debate now is about things like whether to resume full train services, which I guess shows that, yes, it was a slightly bigger incident, but also if that's the kind of debate taking place it doesn't point to anything like all out war.
I was alarmed, Mr. Blep's completely mistaken reading of my comment to the contrary.
So far, the balance of terror between the two countries seems to be holding steady and we can hope that rational people on both sides won't end up nuking both countries back into the stone age.
That's the problem with nuclear weapons and defense treaties and such. Those things start flying, and everybody will be dragged into it.
"Politics is just show business for ugly people."