Tumbleweed...

No one has an opinion? This is the most opinionated forum I frequent (best thing about it).

Would it help if I bought a bikini and started an instagram account (warning: I’m a middle aged bloke)?

Need to decide whether I go all in or whether I wait another year and get another year older and your guys opinions could be the determining factor!

How far off your previous condition are you? And would you have achieved your 10 hour/KQ goal if not for the mechanical?

Other than not getting unlucky with the mechanicals, it seems unlikely you can improve on previous IM performance starting from a lower base and with just 10 weeks to train. Biggest challenge is going to be your run. You can clock up a load of bike miles and make some decent power gains in 10 weeks. But ramping up the run volume when you've just got over shin splints is asking for problems. And you'll be struggling for endurance anyway with no long training, so second half of the run could be painful.

IM NZ looks to be a moderately fast course: https://www.trirating.com/course-ratings/

But unless you weigh 60kg (for your 193W/200W) I'd suggest that you don't stand a chance in hell of a 10hour finish.

But you could train enough to have a solid and enjoyable race. For example Brett Suttons training plans still have 3hour bike and 90min as longest 12 weeks out from the race (but some quite tough midweek sets.)

Not necessarily. I was 95kg when my FTP was around 200W (so probably rode around 150W) and finished 10:30 at several races. Now at 85 kg I have a 9:45 PR, and I was maybe riding riding near 200 W. No power meter but FTP was still only between 280 or 290 at that time.

That's just plain weird. Was it a downhill race?

I presume I am a way off my previous condition. It's been 3 years (minus ten weeks!) and I only started training formally again this year. I was doing OK until October when my shin splints flared up. I ride my bike a lot and all my rides/runs are hilly (I live on the edge of a hilly regional park).

I wouldn't expect to be in better condition. I am comfortable that I was good for sub ten last time but for the mechanical(s).

I'm about 3 kilos heavier.

I'm running similar times for shorter runs but am worried about endurance. Same for the bike. Power numbers are okish (could be better) but would be worried at the lack of long rides. I've done bugger all swimming. That would definitely be slower.

I think the alternative is to wait another year - train better - possibly do my own 100/100 runs, Southern Hemisphere timing and have a crack next year.

Cheers

It was IM Cozumel so in a way the swim was downhill. haha. A 3:12 run split helps, but even with a sub 300W FTP it's possible to go sub 10.

Hmmm. I weighed 67 kilos. Maybe my memory is failing me. I thought my target power was 200 and I pretty much nailed that. I rode just over 6 hours but lost about 50 - 1:05 with recurring mechanical issues with my front wheels that required on-course assistance. I'll dig out my file.

My time was 10:35 so even if I only lost 40 minutes, I should have been good for ten hours.

Not interested in an enjoyable race. Want to crack ten hours and get the bogey off my back.

you don't strike me as the type of person with the prerequisite behaviors to qualify for Kona.

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Eric Reid AeroFit | Instagram Portfolio
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Ha! I like to think I make up for my poor attitude with raw talent... And an ability to suffer on race day.

The year I missed out, the last slot in my age group went to a guy who did 9:52ish (I think he was about 10th!). I think I was good for a reasonable bit faster than that.

BUT - it did roll a bit deep that year and other age groups required significantly faster times.

That's why my goal has never been to KQ. It is to go sub ten. I'm just aware that if I hit 9:4X then, in some years, I could be there or thereabouts.

Interested in what behaviours I should be exhibiting? Other than committing to swimming.

Ah, I think there may have been a typo in your first post (FTP of 200 :-) - that would be impressive )

Well done.

Not interested in an enjoyable race.

One of the common themes from people who compete at a high level is that they enjoy the training and racing. I'd say if you are in worse shape and are not enjoying it, better off not doing the race at all.

Not a typo! My first FTP test about a year ago put me at 210 W and that was 8 months of additional training after my 10:30 finish when I was 95 kg. Last month I finished in 9:45 at 85 kg and my FTP test a few days ago put me around 295 W. So I probably rode 200 W or less, which is what the original poster did at his last IM.

Sorry, I was a bit flippant with that comment. I do enjoy the training and love the racing. There is nothing I've experienced elsewhere like the energy you get on race day at IMNZ. I presume I'm not the only one who gets a little bit over it after multiple weeks of 20+ hours of training but that is what it takes.

My comment was an inarticulate attempt to point out I have a very specific goal - to go sub-ten. If that is unlikely with the time left to train before the event, then I would rather leave it another year and have a better build into next summer.

The issue I am grappling with is that I will burn off a whole lot of annual leave through training which I can only do once every few years so if I gamble and do it this year, I will not have enough in the bank to do the same next year.

I think a third approach could be to train without burning off leave. Do the event in whatever time it takes and use it as part of getting back into the sport for next year. There's probably no downside in that.

1. Postpone; high risk vs. reward outcome, with little chance of success setting up for disappointment, because your training and race day would have be damn near perfect, plus a lot of luck.


2. Do training without burning so much, if any, leave. You don't need 20+ hours a week looking at your past performance to crack sub 10; Spend the next year consistently putting in what you can without taking much time off. Get in the weight room, now, and for the next 3-5 months; 20 minute sessions will do. Ride even if it's only 30 minutes to an hour and hopefully you get a 2-3 longer ones per month whatever you can spare, as often as possible 4-5 days per week; run 20 mins to an hour 3-5 days/week in the same fashion. If you get more than that in great. You'll be that much more prepared. Then when you're 4-6 months out get it together to do build up with as few extended interruptions (planned breaks ok, obvi) in training as possible. but on a balanced plan with consistent, 3-4 months of base training in the 10 to 12 hours build up to 15 hpw, with a handful of weeks in the build months of 18-20 hours can get you there with some room for minor mechanicals ;) . Do long stuff for each sport once a week, at least once a month (with a break every 4th week) and build up. No exceptions, and fill the rest of the week in with shorter technique or "speed" focus, you can crack sub 10.

Consistency/time=results

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Matt Leu, M.S. Kinesiology
San Pedro Fit Works, Los Angeles, CA
Endurance Athlete and Coach
Consistency/time=results

Thanks for your detailed response! I think I've reached a similar conclusion which is to give up my 10 hour goal this year. I think the most likely outcome will just be injury. However, I think I may do the ironman just as part of my getting back into the sport and not worry about time. I can pretty easily manage 15ish hours per week without taking leave and that should be enough to get me around - just not quickly. I am happy to pull the pin before hand if my shin splints flare up again. That will give me a really good base to work from next year.

Then I'll spend the next year getting ready in a structured and consistent way. I was pretty consistent up until October when the shin splints occurred and I can do that again.

I think I will have a crack at a Southern Hemisphere 100/100 and see if lower intensity, higher volume running makes a difference. Will start that in April/May I guess. I love running and it is my strongest leg, but I am becoming more injury prone I fear.