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Re: UK Economy going to crash badly? [trail] [ In reply to ]
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trail wrote:
jkca1 wrote:

The UK has been suffering from trade problems for years, and they should have done something to limit imports;


"In 2016, the United Kingdom exported $374B and imported $609B, resulting in a negative trade balance of $235B".


You can go back to about 1983 according to the ONS, and see the UK's trade advantage go south never to recover. I think they call that deficit spending. ;)
Now if your theory is that deficit spending helped pull the world's economy out of the Bush/Obama era financial problems I think we could both agree that it worked short term, but long term someone has to pay the piper if we want to continue dancing.


Trump, is that you?

A trade imbalance and deficit spending are two very, very different things.

Agreed, But how is the UK going to be helped by pulling out of the EU with the problems it has had for decades and then manage a severe downturn in their economy? The BoE is screaming the sky will fall and yet the Govt. continues on its merry way. Not a prudent financial action if you ask me. I

"The great pleasure in life is doing what people say you cannot do."
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Re: UK Economy going to crash badly? [jkca1] [ In reply to ]
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Post ww2, many parts of the UK have seen massive deindustrialisation, including London in some respects.

Post ww2, London was still a significant port, the NE had ship building and coal mining, the west midland was an industrial heartland, south Wales made steel (weirdly I heard a statistic that China has produced more steel in a day than Wales in its history and whilst I can't believe that is correct there is a magnitude of difference between Wales and China)

Thatcher arrived in the early 80's, shut the mines (far stonger then macron will prove to be), and in some respects accelerated the deskilling and deindustrialisation of the economy.

Well, Brexit is reaping the rewards of a economic policy that placed globalisation ahead of a national strategy)

The areas decimated by Thatcher could never vote tory so they voted for Blair, who was more Thatcher than Thatcher, but in their minds he was not a tory.

Neither Labour nor tory has come up with a strategy to rebuild the areas outside London and the South East with an huge success.

Brexit was the manifestation of many parts of rhe UK for a multitude of reasons say fuck you to the political class in spite of the fact that those areas that voted leave in the largest numbers will be harmed rhe most.

It's ironic in one sense, that the way to really stick it to Blair who has a net worth of 20+ million was to vote leave......... That will show him

I think the EU in its current form is destined to fail. Its simply not possible to reconcile marcron with erdogan, Hungary with Germany, Greece with scandanavia, let alone the issues with the single currency but the 52% who voted leave don't see it, don't care, were sold a pack of lies and in some cases bought them, in others simply want to have no part of europe as a matter of principle.

Every single international transaction at any level subjugated sovereignty to varying degrees.

By and large these people don't see that and could not give a shit about it.

If you want to see the definition of turkeys voting for Christmas, look at strong automotive areas and the percentage voting leave and it turns out they are all shocked that their very industries are leaving the UK.

I'm a first generation Irish immigrant. Mother, grandparents, the whole shebang from limerick and they emigrated to the UK in 56.

Within weeks of the referendum i applied for my passport. Now my kids foreign birth registrations and their passports.

I'm no fan of the EU in its current guise but this is an act of economic suicide - at least in the very short term (a decade) - and I want no part of it. I'd rather it had blown up in the next recession.

All that said though. Its the most interesting thing to have happened in politics in my lifetime. More interesting than trump because the most damage he can do is, within reason, limited, relative to a nation committing economic hari kari

I've set out what I think will happen previously. May's deal will be voted down, there will be an extension of A50, a new political party centred on remaining in the EU will be launched, there will be a second referendum and the UK won't leave..........

On Tuesday we find out if A50 can in theory be unaterally withdrawn. An opinion from the EU court. Ironic that the court Brexiteers want to leave will offer an opinion on whether we can choose to unilaterally revoke it and stay against the wishes of the remaining 27

Brexit is awesome
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Re: UK Economy going to crash badly? [Andrewmc] [ In reply to ]
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Andrewmc wrote:
Well, Brexit is reaping the rewards of a economic policy that placed globalisation ahead of a national strategy)

This is veering slightly off topic, but I don't understand this throwing around the germ "globalisation" as a sort of pejorative term. By both the left and the right. To the right it seems to be associated with some kind of loss of national sovereignty as if entering in to trade contracts is ceding power of governance to mysterious foreign forces. And to the left it's associated with allowing corporate interests to undermine labor unions, rights and straight-up human rights by exploiting whichever areas of the globe have the lowest standards.

But I just don't get lumping all those into some aversion to global trade or global trade contracts. The UK basically fucking invented modern globalization, with the East India Company, et al. and, network of colonies and dominant merchant navy.
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Re: UK Economy going to crash badly? [trail] [ In reply to ]
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I did not mean it pejoratively

For almost everyone including those that voted leave its been positive; better food, more choice, cheaper goods, almost nothing over the last forty years has not been improved by widening access to other markets

However, if your family mined coal, built cars or worked in ship building. That's been the price

On balance its been worth paying but you can understand why People might be upset
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