There were 19 missed field goals/Extra points this weekend in the NFL. I don't know how many were made, but 19 seems like a pretty high number for a settling score.

I think the practice is more about never taking points off the board, and the point is to win, whether by 1 or 50 points doesn't matter.

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The secret of a long life is you try not to shorten it.
-Nobody

I think your stats support the theory that teams should keep pushing towards the end zone,. There seem to be less and less gimmies out there, for whatever reason. Put the fate of your job in the hands of your highest paid players, not the lowest paid player on the team (don't forget the 3rd string qb or punter, who is the holder)

A couple of examples of what you're talking about might be helpful. I can't think of a situation in football when time isn't at least one factor/object to consider. Most coaches will look at a host of factors, including time left, when making the decision whether to go for it or kick a field goal.

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''The enemy isn't conservatism. The enemy isn't liberalism. The enemy is bulls**t.''

—Lars-Erik Nelson

Minnesota at Green Bay for one yesterday. Minnesota shut it down in OT after a big first down and missed a field goal, there was plenty of time... game over in a tie

The other one that resulted in a made winning kick but I think was a risky play was LSU @ Auburn. LSU had control of the clock and had Auburn on their heels. They had a first down on the 21 with 1:04 to play and a timeout in their pocket, which is an eternity in CFB. They could have at least attempted a lowish risk play or two to try and get into chip shot range, but they settled for the 42 yd attempt after 3 straight dives. They still won the game, but making 42 yd field goals on the road with a 19 year old kicker is not how i would want to live my life.

Why not leave it in the hands of the top scorers, they have the track record;

http://www.espn.com/...eaders/_/stat/points

you have to look at the line in Vegas first... then it might make some sense.

Yeah, I was wondering what they were doing in that game too. College teams can blow a lot of pressure kicks. If it is Janikowski from 30, yeah, I'll run the clock out. If it is pimple faced 19 year old, I want the TD.

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I'm beginning to think that we are much more fucked than I thought.

How many of these decisions re whether to go or take the field goal made on 4th down?

I can see your point if teams were going for the field goal on 3rd down, with time still on the clock, but isn't it in most circumstances pretty much a no-brainer if it's 4th down? There may be exceptions, but those are rare.

These are 4th down decisions, but if you look at the plays these teams are running on 1st-3rd down, it is clear they have given up trying to push the ball forwards, they are just trying to get the ball centered, sometimes even losing a few yards. I am not saying you throw a risky pass over the middle into double coverage, but there are infinite low-medium risk plays that with the right block, read, or juke, could result in a touchdown, and game over.

Fair point. I'd be curious to see what, on average, the teams are trying to accomplish.

At the end of the game when a field goal can win it, once a team is in field goal range, and especially in the red zone, there's a significant incentive to play conservatively. You don't want a turnover, so any pass has to be safe -- sideline or end zone, with it more likely than not being overthrown. If you can't trust the QB for that, then you run for a few yards and spot. Then you count on your defense to hold for what's remaining on the clock.

There are a lot of dynamics that go into that, but my guess is that more often than not, it's what will win the game.

I agree that is the rule of thumb, but statistically it doesn't make a ton of sense in some situations. You mention turnovers, what is the average per game, 1-2 per team? 3 is usually deemed a sloppy game for a team, so let's say 2.5. A team often has 60-70 offensive snaps in a game, so the chance of a turnover on average is less than 4% for any given snap, so coaches are making decisions to avoid something that mathematically happens quite rarely. I realize looking only at the stats doesn't consider the situational nature of the game, which is why I am picking on situations in which teams have momentum and time to spare (LSU and Minnesota specifically from this weekend).

Additionally, given how commonplace the standard behavior/play calling has become, if you were to line up and try to run a real play, vs a dive off guard, there is a chance the defense isn't prepared, since they would normally assume the tailback dive is coming.

But where are turnovers most likely to occur? I suspect statistically they're more likely to happen in the red zone, when teams are going for it and are relatively desperate. How many games have ended on an interception?

Most likely, teams take the conservative approach because, statistically, it pays off.

That doesn't mean that teams don't pass when in FG range or in the red zone. Just that they're careful about it.

 
The kick has far less risk than just about any other play they can run. And as far as the stat on 19 missed points from kicks, Crosby made 15 points on kicks by himself on Sunday, so overall, the kicking game is just fine and a good way to put up points.

As for the GB vs. Min game it very clearly demonstrates the issues with going for it. In the end of the 4th GB had the ball with all their downs and Min had 2 timeouts left. GB was in FG range for Crosby and had the opportunity to run the ball three times, burn both of Min's TO's and leave them with about 90 seconds left with no TO's after the FG try. McCarthy is a guy that will do this 9 times out of 10. On Sunday he grew a wild hair and decided to try to win the game instead. He elected to pass on the first two downs. If it had worked he would be e genius and a gutsy coach playing to win, but it didn't, both fell incomplete. So he used 15 seconds of clock and didn't burn any of Min's TO's. We gave the ball back to them with 1:45 to play and two TO's which is an eternity. If McCarthy had been conservative and run the ball on those downs we might have won the game.

In the 4th quarter Cousins threw 2 interceptions near the end, one clinched the game for us but got taken back by the dipshit ref call.

Also in the very end of the game GB's running back ran for 6 yards going for a 1st to ice the game, he fumbled but managed to recover his own fumble. Then Rodgers fumbled and recovered his own fumble right after that. So in the span on 2 game minutes you have 4 potential turnovers. Starts to make the kicking seem like a pretty sure thing when Crosby made 5 of 6 for the day.

Right its not like 10 min earlier, you had the ball down by 5 with 2 min to go, and ended up scoring a TD and having to make a 2 pt conversion to force overtime, cause your QB got picked off and the other team got a field goal to expand the lead to 8.

Yeah its called the safe play cause it has less risk of losing. Coaches no the percentages, and what their kicker can make. Yes this year some NFL kickers seem to be missing a lot more. Not sure why (was there any rules changes that impact the kicking game or what ball they can use???) don't know.

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Just Triing
Triathlete since 9:56:39 AM EST Aug 20, 2006.
Be kind English is my 2nd language. My primary language is Dave it's a unique evolution of English.

But most often will only yield a few yards and every player on the other team will be going for strip fumble. Is it really worth the risk?

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Just Triing
Triathlete since 9:56:39 AM EST Aug 20, 2006.
Be kind English is my 2nd language. My primary language is Dave it's a unique evolution of English.

To be fair, 4 of those came from the same guy.