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Ironman World Championship Psych Sheets
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Here are the psych sheets for Kona: Ironman World Championship Psych Sheets

If it's helpful, please consider donating to the fundraiser I am doing for the Pediatric Brain Tumor Foundation (a link is on the top of each sheet, too).

I adjusted the algorithm for these, as it is harder to do the predictions when the field is stacked. For the other psych sheets, looking at previous IM / HIM finish places was enough to predict who most of the top finishers would be. However, with most everyone in Kona having finished in the top-5 at some point in the past year, I took a different approach.

I'm not currently looking at consistency across events or quality of fields with respect to finishing places, although those would be good to add in the future. For now, I calculated each competitor's best "score" as follows, using their best finish place within their division multiplied by a certain factor:

1. Regular Ironman: 1 + 0.5 * number of years before 2017
2. Regular Half Ironman: 2 + 1 * number of years before 2017
3. Ironman World Championship: 0.1 + 0.2 * number of years before 2017

After the equivalent of around 20th place at an Ironman, I factor in USAT scores if they exist.

These numbers are just made up by me, but the thinking was that a top Kona result is worth a lot more than a regular Ironman result.
Last edited by: triryan: Sep 16, 18 17:14
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Re: Ironman World Championship Psych Sheets [triryan] [ In reply to ]
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seems weighted in an odd way. how have the "predictions" faced up with reality in the past?

I'm racing 2019 IM Arizona as part of Team Smile Train. Will I implode? Will I finish strong? Donate to find out more!
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Re: Ironman World Championship Psych Sheets [jkhayc] [ In reply to ]
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Pretty good for being directional in predicting top finishers at other Ironmans...This was IMWI...feel free to compare against the results. This is the first time doing one for Kona.


jkhayc wrote:
seems weighted in an odd way. how have the "predictions" faced up with reality in the past?
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Re: Ironman World Championship Psych Sheets [triryan] [ In reply to ]
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Interesting work. Although, it would be interesting to account for course / race difficulty as assuming all times are equal will rank those on flat races higher. Trirating does course ratings which could prove useful.
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Re: Ironman World Championship Psych Sheets [jkhayc] [ In reply to ]
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jkhayc wrote:
seems weighted in an odd way. how have the "predictions" faced up with reality in the past?

Was pretty accurate for IM Santa Rosa too.
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Re: Ironman World Championship Psych Sheets [triryan] [ In reply to ]
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Scanning the M50-54 AG I noticed Pierre Heynemand Jr. only had year listed (and not his fastest this year). He has a handful of Kona Top 5 placings in the last few years I have seen him listed multiple times in the USA rankings in the same year, so somehow the data is not syncing up as the same person. He is Canadian so likely doesn't check. Sometimes listed as Jr. sometimes not.

Anyway, just a name I recognized (from getting crushed by him a handful of times) with missing results.

Even though I'm not racing I still feel compelled to review your psych sheets! Thanks.
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Re: Ironman World Championship Psych Sheets [Stelvio] [ In reply to ]
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I'm matching on first/last name, country, and age, so any variations will throw things off. I updated his name on the start list so that it uses the best result...moves him up to #3.


Stelvio wrote:
Scanning the M50-54 AG I noticed Pierre Heynemand Jr. only had year listed (and not his fastest this year). He has a handful of Kona Top 5 placings in the last few years I have seen him listed multiple times in the USA rankings in the same year, so somehow the data is not syncing up as the same person. He is Canadian so likely doesn't check. Sometimes listed as Jr. sometimes not.

Anyway, just a name I recognized (from getting crushed by him a handful of times) with missing results.

Even though I'm not racing I still feel compelled to review your psych sheets! Thanks.
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Re: Ironman World Championship Psych Sheets [triryan] [ In reply to ]
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Galveston or Texas psych sheets up yet?

Yes I contribute every time you do one for a race I am doing!

Thanks :-)

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2018 Races: Crashed out for the year
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Re: Ironman World Championship Psych Sheets [Toothengineer] [ In reply to ]
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I can try to take a look at putting something together this weekend. It doesn't look like Ironman has posted a 2019 IMWC start list yet, so I won't have the data on who has already qualified.


Toothengineer wrote:
Galveston or Texas psych sheets up yet?

Yes I contribute every time you do one for a race I am doing!

Thanks :-)
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Re: Ironman World Championship Psych Sheets [Toothengineer] [ In reply to ]
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I updated the main thread with Ironman Texas


Toothengineer wrote:
Galveston or Texas psych sheets up yet?

Yes I contribute every time you do one for a race I am doing!

Thanks :-)
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