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No housing bubble. Nothing to see here
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https://www.telegraph.co.uk/...-decade-fall-lehman/

So. Yes lending criteria in general may be better but we know many people are up to their eyeballs in unsecured credit.

What happens when the economy turns to those mortgages and unsecured credit lines

So fucking glad I got shot of the house next Tuesday.....
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Re: No housing bubble. Nothing to see here [Andrewmc] [ In reply to ]
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Andrewmc wrote:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2018/09/16/subprime-mortgages-back-decade-fall-lehman/

So. Yes lending criteria in general may be better but we know many people are up to their eyeballs in unsecured credit.

What happens when the economy turns to those mortgages and unsecured credit lines

So fucking glad I got shot of the house next Tuesday.....

We the public and the regulators don't seem to have learned that much.

They constantly try to escape from the darkness outside and within
Dreaming of systems so perfect that no one will need to be good T.S. Eliot

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Re: No housing bubble. Nothing to see here [len] [ In reply to ]
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I've learnt a lifetimes worth in the last 26 months. More than I ever needed to.

It's terrifying. I've been scared witless that it would all get worse before I could get out.
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Re: No housing bubble. Nothing to see here [Andrewmc] [ In reply to ]
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After the bubble we "Corrected" to normal historic highs since 1960's. We hit higher numbers during the baby boom largely because of...well the baby boom. We dumped crap loads of "Emergency cash" from the Treasury, Tarp and so on to "Save the economy". the end result was that a real correction never happened and we are headed right back into the same crap we were in 10 years ago. This time around however we have a public debt that is what we had during WWII and already low interest rates combined with a smaller labor participation rate and an aging population....what could go wrong.
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Re: No housing bubble. Nothing to see here [Andrewmc] [ In reply to ]
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Don't overlook the subprime loan market keeping the auto industry afloat. There are going to be a lot of used cars up for sale. I wouldn't touch a new car except for maybe an electric.
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Re: No housing bubble. Nothing to see here [Andrewmc] [ In reply to ]
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As you say though, mortgage lending in the last decade has been pretty sensible. I know a lot of people who have either re-mortgaged or bought for the first time since 2008 and the checks are extremely tight. Deposits minimum 10% (and considerably more if you want access to the best deals), low multiples of income, proper due diligence done on spending and disposable income, etc. So unless interest rates rise much more quickly than anybody is expecting, I'm struggling to see what will trigger a big correction in house prices. Can see a steady decline/stagnation over a number of years (this is already happening in and around London), particularly at the top end of the market where stamp duty is now cripplingly expensive, but that's probably healthy and isn't going to put too many people into big trouble. Probably not a good time to own property as an investment, so yes I can see why you're relieved to get out, but owner occupiers seem like they should mostly be OK.

Unsecured credit lines are definitely more of a problem. Can certainly see the banks taking a haircut on some of those loans, and maybe a lot of cars/TVs/sofas are going to get repossessed by the bailiffs. Whether it's a big enough problem to cause bankruptcies I don't know.
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