Pretty much never. For a real answer you can always use best bike split for a specific course. But, for most closed loop courses...aero will almost always win.

My TT is 24-25 depending on water/nutrition necessary for the race, my roadie would be 16-17 including water (but not nutrition) and even on Whistler, I still save 13 minutes using the TT. My bet on weight being an issue is 35 lbs but I am no expert.

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808 > NYC > PDX > YVR
2024 Races: Taupo

Depends on your speed, which again depends on how strong you are. If you can do 25mph up a 10% incline, I think aero benefits will be greater. But I Think GCN tested it and came to the conclusion that it was around a 7-8% incline for fit riders.
But position is different, so you might also be more comfortable and putting out more power on a Road bike.
Watching pro cyclists, it seems there’s a drafting benefit for them until they’re at 12-15% incline, but that might just as Well be the mental aspect of hanging on

Possibly when T2 finishes at a significantly higher elevation than T1. Or if there is no flat roads, a lot of steep climbing, and the descents are so technical that you can't be on the aero bars. Or if you're sitting in the middle of a draft pack the whole bike leg...(pink).

That describes very little courses that exist today. For sure nothing that WTC puts on (except for the draft pack part).

What the other guys said. You would have suffered just as much on a lighter bike.

Cervelo did a white paper on it a while back as well, and I think the general idea was that weight only trumps aero if your average gradient for the ride is 6%+.....which yea, never happens. Well, an example would be the TDF time trial stage up Alp D'Huez a while ago.

https://www.cervelo.com/...notes/weight-vs-aero

Almost never.

Thing is.....a ton of people thinking about weight of bikes should consider their own body first. Buy whatever you actually want, of course.

But don't fool yourself that shaving even a full 2 lb off your bike will matter as much as shaving 20 lb off your body. Put that extra money to a power meter and TrainingPeaks subscription. Unless of course you can afford all of it, then go for it.

I ride in the group ride with guys that are 20 lb heavier than I am. We're pretty equal power on flats/rollers. But as soon as it goes up even 3%, I can gap them pretty far pretty quick when the effort is longer than a minute. If the grade is over 6%, forget it. I'll put in a minute for every 3 to 4 minutes going up.

I think people who don't have the time to reach power goals could certainly focus on body composition and stand to gain a lot. Being lighter is also more aero, smaller hole you punch through the air. It sucks for guys on a group ride following me that are 170 to 185 lbs. I try to sit up more than use the drops when I lead just to be fair so they can get their rest just like I get when it isn't my turn.