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Re: Frodo inside everyone's head before Kona.... [Scotttriguy] [ In reply to ]
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Scotttriguy wrote:
Was it Jan surging that caused Javier to get the stitch? Or was Javier getting a stitch, and it looked like Jan surged? I suspect the later.

I would expect Javier to employ the same tactic in Kona he's done with all his 70.3s: swim front pack, but not lead the pack - bike front pack, but not lead the pack.

In Kona I'd predict he stays with Jan - whatever Jan does if / when Sebi, Lionel, Cameron come, Javier does the same. If Jan goes with them, so does Javier.

His tactic has been to conserve energy and wait for the run.

I expect the same in Kona. And hoping he takes the win.

IF and I mean a BIG IF they enforce the draft rules, then I predict Gomez gets a drafting penalty like he SHOULD have gotten at 70.3 worlds. Either way, NO WAY Gomez stays with the lead cyclists in Kona, NO WAY!!!
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Re: Frodo inside everyone's head before Kona.... [japarker24] [ In reply to ]
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japarker24 wrote:

Crowie won 70.3 WC and Kona in the same year (did Kienle?).....so I guess with Frodo you're throwing in the win at Frankfurt (IM Euro Champs) as 3 big races in the same year.

It’s not just winning 70.3 WC and Kona, but like many I thought this was going to be the most competitive season I can recall, covering 70.3 and full. The depth and quality of the contenders, existing and new.

Assuming he finishes it off in Kona he would have been utterly dominant. Winning the big one at each distance, plus another big ticket event at each (Frankfurt, Oceanside) handpicked to give him a race against his main rivals. He’ll have been near peak for 7 months, unbeaten, and will have beaten most rivals twice, at both distances.

Toughest race still to come though....
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Re: Frodo inside everyone's head before Kona.... [TRO Saracen] [ In reply to ]
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Not responding to anyone in particular, but I would imagine that Kienle is please that all the focus seems to be mainly on the other guys. He is smart and he will win this year.
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Re: Frodo inside everyone's head before Kona.... [CementBottle] [ In reply to ]
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CementBottle wrote:
Scotttriguy wrote:
Was it Jan surging that caused Javier to get the stitch? Or was Javier getting a stitch, and it looked like Jan surged? I suspect the later.

I would expect Javier to employ the same tactic in Kona he's done with all his 70.3s: swim front pack, but not lead the pack - bike front pack, but not lead the pack.

In Kona I'd predict he stays with Jan - whatever Jan does if / when Sebi, Lionel, Cameron come, Javier does the same. If Jan goes with them, so does Javier.

His tactic has been to conserve energy and wait for the run.

I expect the same in Kona. And hoping he takes the win.

IF and I mean a BIG IF they enforce the draft rules, then I predict Gomez gets a drafting penalty like he SHOULD have gotten at 70.3 worlds. Either way, NO WAY Gomez stays with the lead cyclists in Kona, NO WAY!!!

Gomez doesn’t have to stay with the lead bikers. The lead bikers will be Amberger, Starky & Wurf. Guys who, IMHO, have no chance to win.

Pink? Maybe. Maybe not. You decide.
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Re: Frodo inside everyone's head before Kona.... [japarker24] [ In reply to ]
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japarker24 wrote:
CementBottle wrote:
Scotttriguy wrote:
Was it Jan surging that caused Javier to get the stitch? Or was Javier getting a stitch, and it looked like Jan surged? I suspect the later.

I would expect Javier to employ the same tactic in Kona he's done with all his 70.3s: swim front pack, but not lead the pack - bike front pack, but not lead the pack.

In Kona I'd predict he stays with Jan - whatever Jan does if / when Sebi, Lionel, Cameron come, Javier does the same. If Jan goes with them, so does Javier.

His tactic has been to conserve energy and wait for the run.

I expect the same in Kona. And hoping he takes the win.


IF and I mean a BIG IF they enforce the draft rules, then I predict Gomez gets a drafting penalty like he SHOULD have gotten at 70.3 worlds. Either way, NO WAY Gomez stays with the lead cyclists in Kona, NO WAY!!!


Gomez doesn’t have to stay with the lead bikers. The lead bikers will be Amberger, Starky & Wurf. Guys who, IMHO, have no chance to win.

Kienle and Sanders will be in the lead pack as well, but I should have said main bike pack. I see Gomez being third pack down the road on the way be from Hawi, behind the lead pack and behind the first chase pack. I see Gomez riding with Lange being 10+ minutes back at T2. With Kienle, Sanders and Frodo up the road, that is a TALL ask for Gomez in his FIRST Kona!!!
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Re: Frodo inside everyone's head before Kona.... [CementBottle] [ In reply to ]
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CementBottle wrote:
Scotttriguy wrote:
Was it Jan surging that caused Javier to get the stitch? Or was Javier getting a stitch, and it looked like Jan surged? I suspect the later.

I would expect Javier to employ the same tactic in Kona he's done with all his 70.3s: swim front pack, but not lead the pack - bike front pack, but not lead the pack.

In Kona I'd predict he stays with Jan - whatever Jan does if / when Sebi, Lionel, Cameron come, Javier does the same. If Jan goes with them, so does Javier.

His tactic has been to conserve energy and wait for the run.

I expect the same in Kona. And hoping he takes the win.


IF and I mean a BIG IF they enforce the draft rules, then I predict Gomez gets a drafting penalty like he SHOULD have gotten at 70.3 worlds. Either way, NO WAY Gomez stays with the lead cyclists in Kona, NO WAY!!!

Jimmy's zebra boys will be watching Javier like a hawk in Kona. That I think we can be certain of.

People can say what they want about Jan, Sebi, or Sanders' chances, but one thing is certain is they have earned a pretty clean reputation when it comes to how they play on the bike.
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Re: Frodo inside everyone's head before Kona.... [lacticturkey] [ In reply to ]
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Yes, I think apart from his ideal body and talent for long distance, Frodeno strikes me as the most professional one. Of course all the guys are training very hard and living for the sport 24/7. But sometimes there seem to be small things that are not ideal.
Brownlee trains a lot and hard and can push himself, but maybe he cannot hold himself back and pace. And I heared rumours that he eats chocolate croissants and stuff like that all the time.
Sanders has not less of a drive. But he often goes from one extreme to the next and does silly things out of emotions. He also doesn't have a huge team behind him. (Don't get me wrong, because of that I want to see him win Kona).

But Frodeno seems to prepare how a Football team would prepare or how NASA prepares an expedition. He even hires his own physical therapist that follows him around the world and treats him multiple times per day and prevents stuff from even happening. Frodeno says it was his best ever investment.
He is also very disciplined and knows when to hold back. He trains consistently and does not overreach in one week and then misses sessions the next. The same goes for pacing. No suicidal surges etc.
Then he eats very clean without depleting himself. So he looks for good quality all the time but does never starve. (In his book he writes that he is now at 76-77 kilos and a bit heavier than in ITU but he feels well. During his early days he sometimes depleted himself and tried to get leaner what often did more harm than good).
As well as this he has his mangager that plans everything and leaves nothing to chance.

I think Frodeno has the perfect body for long course. Tall and strong what is good for swimming and TTing but still very narrow and lean to help his running and cooling in the heat.

10k - 30:48 / half - 1:06:40
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Re: Frodo inside everyone's head before Kona.... [ToBeasy] [ In reply to ]
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ToBeasy wrote:
Yes, I think apart from his ideal body and talent for long distance, Frodeno strikes me as the most professional one. Of course all the guys are training very hard and living for the sport 24/7. But sometimes there seem to be small things that are not ideal.
Brownlee trains a lot and hard and can push himself, but maybe he cannot hold himself back and pace. And I heared rumours that he eats chocolate croissants and stuff like that all the time.
Sanders has not less of a drive. But he often goes from one extreme to the next and does silly things out of emotions. He also doesn't have a huge team behind him. (Don't get me wrong, because of that I want to see him win Kona).

But Frodeno seems to prepare how a Football team would prepare or how NASA prepares an expedition. He even hires his own physical therapist that follows him around the world and treats him multiple times per day and prevents stuff from even happening. Frodeno says it was his best ever investment.
He is also very disciplined and knows when to hold back. He trains consistently and does not overreach in one week and then misses sessions the next. The same goes for pacing. No suicidal surges etc.
Then he eats very clean without depleting himself. So he looks for good quality all the time but does never starve. (In his book he writes that he is now at 76-77 kilos and a bit heavier than in ITU but he feels well. During his early days he sometimes depleted himself and tried to get leaner what often did more harm than good).
As well as this he has his mangager that plans everything and leaves nothing to chance.

I think Frodeno has the perfect body for long course. Tall and strong what is good for swimming and TTing but still very narrow and lean to help his running and cooling in the heat.

OK now that I jinxed Frodo with this thread and he is supposedly out with a hip fracture, who do you guys want me to jinx next before Kona. Luckily I did not start a Lucy Charles thread as I would like to see her unseat Daniela!
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Re: Frodo inside everyone's head before Kona.... [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]
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devashish_paul wrote:


OK now that I jinxed Frodo with this thread and he is supposedly out with a hip fracture, who do you guys want me to jinx next before Kona. Luckily I did not start a Lucy Charles thread as I would like to see her unseat Daniela!

All bets are off. Except my prediction:

Following a "light-bulb moment" during his pre-race round of golf, Lionel decides to load more calories and adds peperoni to his pizza (because he saw Sebi eating that once) for his critical pre-race meal. But after drinking 7l of fluid in 90km, his newly vegan-adapted bowels rebel and he ends up with explosive diarrhea on the Hawi descent, causing him spray Cam Wurf with fecal matter and getting a DQ for failing to use an aid station porta potty.

Cam vomits violently, causing him to lose control of his bike at 70kph, taking down Sebi, Gomez (who was drafting) and Braden Curry with him.

Lange avoids the carnage and runs down Starky for the win.
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Re: Frodo inside everyone's head before Kona.... [japarker24] [ In reply to ]
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You do know tht Cam ran 2:52 last weekend right? If he runs 2:55 in Kona with otherwise the same splits he would win and go sub 8.

Terrible Tuesday’s Triathlon
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Re: Frodo inside everyone's head before Kona.... [oscaro] [ In reply to ]
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I'm sure he can go from barely breaking 3h once to running sub 3 in Kona in 4 weeks. No problem...


oscaro wrote:
You do know tht Cam ran 2:52 last weekend right? If he runs 2:55 in Kona with otherwise the same splits he would win and go sub 8.

What's your CdA?
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Re: Frodo inside everyone's head before Kona.... [trailerhouse] [ In reply to ]
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Okay so 2:52 is barely breaking 3 now? Also he has ran around 3h 3-4 times this year, and ran 2:58 i Zurich. It's also pretty well known that he doesn't go all out on the run and just sees it as a catered training day with a pay check. Sure him on the podium isn't probable, but it is not impossible.

Terrible Tuesday’s Triathlon
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Re: Frodo inside everyone's head before Kona.... [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]
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[q. Luckily I did not start a Lucy Charles thread as I would like to see her unseat Daniela![/quote]
Do you really think someone can get fast enough at biking and running in 4 (or thereabouts) years, having just been a swimmer, to be the world best triathlete.

I don't.
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Re: Frodo inside everyone's head before Kona.... [tuckandgo] [ In reply to ]
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tuckandgo wrote:
[q. Luckily I did not start a Lucy Charles thread as I would like to see her unseat Daniela!


Do you really think someone can get fast enough at biking and running in 4 (or thereabouts) years, having just been a swimmer, to be the world best triathlete.

I don't.[/quote]
Biking I think in 4 years a national team caliber swimmer can get there on the bike Lance did it in his youth, I don't see why Lucy can't. The run is harder. I don't think Lucy has a background in cross country or any running sport like soccer or field hockey. But if Daniela cramps for whatever reason due to the heat she feels from Lucy, and does not back down on her pace to manage her body and feels like she needs to push through and cramps worse, then all bets are off. Lucy seems like the only one who will be close enough that Daniela's buffer is not infinite. It's near infinite on Mirinda Carfrae. Against Mirinda, Daniela comes off the bike and is 2.5 miles down Alii before Mirinda racks. That's a lot of real estate to use for walking breaks IF you need to regroup.
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Re: Frodo inside everyone's head before Kona.... [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]
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devashish_paul wrote:
tuckandgo wrote:
[q. Luckily I did not start a Lucy Charles thread as I would like to see her unseat Daniela!


Do you really think someone can get fast enough at biking and running in 4 (or thereabouts) years, having just been a swimmer, to be the world best triathlete.

I don't.


Biking I think in 4 years a national team caliber swimmer can get there on the bike Lance did it in his youth, I don't see why Lucy can't. The run is harder. I don't think Lucy has a background in cross country or any running sport like soccer or field hockey. But if Daniela cramps for whatever reason due to the heat she feels from Lucy, and does not back down on her pace to manage her body and feels like she needs to push through and cramps worse, then all bets are off. Lucy seems like the only one who will be close enough that Daniela's buffer is not infinite. It's near infinite on Mirinda Carfrae. Against Mirinda, Daniela comes off the bike and is 2.5 miles down Alii before Mirinda racks. That's a lot of real estate to use for walking breaks IF you need to regroup.[/quote]

I think Lucy needs another fast swimmer to actually work with her on the bike, was it Brandon that just sat on her 'wheel' for the majority of the bike before Ryf blasted by in the latter stages? In fairness to her, she did say she couldn't do anything else but mustve been tough for Lucy taking that much wind, especially at Kona.
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Re: Frodo inside everyone's head before Kona.... [oscaro] [ In reply to ]
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Quote:
You do know tht Cam ran 2:52 last weekend right? If he runs 2:55 in Kona with otherwise the same splits he would win and go sub 8.

Some other guy will stay close enough on the bike, Sanders, Kienle and then they outrun him with a run split under 2.50.
He will be better this year but winning, not likely
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Re: Frodo inside everyone's head before Kona.... [oscaro] [ In reply to ]
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Agree. Frodo out helps Wurf. I think there is now a perfectly viable path for him to win the race.

He needs to put 10’ on the sebi-sanders train into T2, and then to run 2:5x low.
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Re: Frodo inside everyone's head before Kona.... [MadTownTRI] [ In reply to ]
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MadTownTRI wrote:
Agree. Frodo out helps Wurf. I think there is now a perfectly viable path for him to win the race.

He needs to put 10’ on the sebi-sanders train into T2..../This won't happen

and if it does

run 2:5x low...../Then this won't happen.

Pink? Maybe. Maybe not. You decide.
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Re: Frodo inside everyone's head before Kona.... [japarker24] [ In reply to ]
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He could conceivably start the bike 5 minutes ahead of Kienle and Sanders, and with Starky on top of that. That has to happen for this scenario to play out.
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Re: Frodo inside everyone's head before Kona.... [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]
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devashish_paul wrote:

Biking I think in 4 years a national team caliber swimmer can get there on the bike Lance did it in his youth, I don't see why Lucy can't. The run is harder. I don't think Lucy has a background in cross country or any running sport like soccer or field hockey. But if Daniela cramps for whatever reason due to the heat she feels from Lucy, and does not back down on her pace to manage her body and feels like she needs to push through and cramps worse, then all bets are off. Lucy seems like the only one who will be close enough that Daniela's buffer is not infinite. It's near infinite on Mirinda Carfrae. Against Mirinda, Daniela comes off the bike and is 2.5 miles down Alii before Mirinda racks. That's a lot of real estate to use for walking breaks IF you need to regroup.

At this point...how is the running bit relevant. Her competence on the marathon off the bike has been tested quite well over time. Not seeing it like a crazy weakness.

Washed up footy player turned Triathlete.
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Re: Frodo inside everyone's head before Kona.... [CPT Chaos] [ In reply to ]
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what were you saying about gomez.....?
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Re: Frodo inside everyone's head before Kona.... [ToBeasy] [ In reply to ]
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ToBeasy wrote:
But Frodeno seems to prepare how a Football team would prepare or how NASA prepares an expedition. He even hires his own physical therapist that follows him around the world and treats him multiple times per day and prevents stuff from even happening. Frodeno says it was his best ever investment.
He is also very disciplined and knows when to hold back. He trains consistently and does not overreach in one week and then misses sessions the next. The same goes for pacing. No suicidal surges etc.
F me, this is hilarious.
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