1. Lange
2. Currie
3. Gomez
4. Sebi
5. Hanson

1. Ryf (by miles)
2. Crowley
3. Hauschildt
4. Lucy
5. Jackson

Frodeno out really changes the dynamic of the race I think. But I still don't see Gomez as a top 3 guy in his Kona debut.

1. Sebastian Kienle
2. Patrick Lange
3. Lionel Sanders
4. Josh Amberger
5. Javier Gomez

---

Washed up footy player turned Triathlete.

4. Josh Amberger
5. Javier Gomez

I think Gomez may be on podium. Cant see Josh Amberger before Gomez atleast. Too much run power amongst the guys i would say

1. Ryf
2. Jackson
3. Charles
4. Carfrae
5. Sali

1. Sebi
2. Currie
3. Lange
4. Gomez
5. Amberger

So, Frodo is out....

1. GOMEZ
2. SANDERS
3. KIENLE
4. MC NAMEE
5. NILLSON

---

Spaniard. Sorry for my english for the sensitive ones :P

1. Sanders
2. Gomez
3. Currie
4. Lange
5. Kienle

Gomez, Currie & Lange come out of the water about in the same group. Currie goes with a group that includes perhaps O'Donnell, Van Lierde,.. to try and get rid of the likes of Gomez, Lange & McNamee. They all get passed by a freight training Wurf who got out of the water a bit before Sanders & Kienle, and tries to catch up to the Amberger-Starky train that has formed to get some cushion on Sanders & Kienle. Now those 2 blow by both the Gomez, Lange & McNamee group and the group that includes Currie and some others. Wurf, Starky and Amberger all get passed by Sanders & Kienle before the half way part of the marathon. Currie comes off the bike a few minutes back on Sanders & Kienle and a few minutes ahead of Gomez, Lange & McNamee. Sanders runs a 2:48 and pulls off the win, Kienle runs a 2:53 and gets passed by Currie who does a 2:43 who gets passed by Gomez who runs a 2:40. Lange does not have the legs to run a 3rd 2:40 in Kona and has to let Gomez go at 32k but still passes Kienle.

Either that because Gomez lacks experience and decides to stay with Lange and McNamee and tries to beat them on the run, or Gomez goes with Currie, O'Donnell, etc because he knows he can keep up with Currie from Cairns and wants to get rid of the likes of Lange and McNamee. He then can still pass Sanders for the win in about the same fashion as Lange did to Sanders last year. Rest of the top 5 remains the same.

1. Ryf
2. Charles
3. Crowley
4. Sali
5. Carfrae

Basically about the same scenario as last year, although I think Lucy will have a bigger gap/maintain it longer before Ryf catches up..

I dont know him well but has Matt Hanson zero chance?

His race in Texas was fast no?

With Frodo out I am going to go....

1.Gomez 2.Lange 3.McNamee 4.Currie 5.Hanson

He does not have the swim or bike that's required to compete for a podium let alone win.

---

blog

Ah man, i had top 3 in the other thread, guess I'll shoot for 5 too.

Women:
Ryf
Carfrae
Charles
Haug
True

Men:
Gomez
Lange
Sanders
Nilsson
Kienle

---

808 > NYC > PDX > YVR
2024 Races: Taupo

Now you have two DNS in your list!

---

808 > NYC > PDX > YVR
2024 Races: Taupo

RESULTS:

MALE
1 7:52:39 Patrick Lange
2 7:56:41 4:03 Bart Aernouts
3 8:01:09 8:31 David McNamee
4 8:03:17 10:39 Tim O'Donnell
5 8:04:41 12:03 Braden Currie


FEMALE
1 8:26:18 Daniela Ryf
2 8:36:34 10:17 Lucy Charles
3 8:41:58 15:41 Anne Haug
4 8:43:43 17:26 Sarah True
5 8:50:45 24:28 Mirinda Carfrae


I had 2/5 in the men's race and 2/5 in the women's race which is about typical for my IMWC picks. Kona always has some surprises in the top 5.
So.... how'd you do?

---

-------------------
Madison photographer Timothy Hughes | Instagram

I was SO WRONG. I should quit.

---

808 > NYC > PDX > YVR
2024 Races: Taupo

Not a million miles off there, have to see of I revised my pics when Frodo pulled out.

Actually your 5/5 in the women's race is crazy good regardless of order.

---

-------------------
Madison photographer Timothy Hughes | Instagram

Bahhh what happened to Hanson? Never heard his name all night, he's let me down.

Never seen Aernouts name mentioned once in the build up to the point I didn't even know he was racing, probably the most surprising finish place of the race?

So...I knew Gomez wouldn't be close, but wow, I had a feeling he'd do worse the closer we got. Seb and Amberger DNFing really kills me.

---

Washed up footy player turned Triathlete.

Yes, probably.

It seems like a dark horse makes it onto the podium about every year in Kona. Many stay in contention but some are one and done. It's a strange race.

---

-------------------
Madison photographer Timothy Hughes | Instagram