cabdoctor wrote:
AVG. The best predictor of performance is previous performance. I'm a small guy with a big anaerobic engine and I race a lot of crits. I routinely see NP numbers in races that I can never reach in a solid state effort for the same duration. So while looking at NP makes me feel good, for me those numbers end up being purely theoritical and of no use in setting training zones, pacing breakaways, or TTs. There's a really good reason the Power Duration Curve in WKO uses AVG and not NP. As far as hilly courses, good course recon with a good idea of how to gauge each effort I find helps the best, especially if you're feel great or horrible.
if you're racing crits you should not be looking at your power data AT ALL (and actually if you're looking at your garmin we need to have a chat). for IM short/long races you need pacing information, for crits its purely tactical. you follow wheels or you don't, and its not your strength that dictates pacing, its what the group is willing to allow. even if you're getting into the break, speed is a better indicator of what you need to be doing, not power. Crits by their very nature are likely to have a big VI, 1.2 is not uncommon, and when reviewing data post race the most important # for me is 0w time. My goal is to have maximum time at 0w (coasting) and a win/podium. Crits are far more about energy conservation and using it when required than it is proving that you can throw down power all race long.