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Re: Universal Basic Income [Brownie28] [ In reply to ]
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Max Tegmark, the MIT Cosmologist, addresses some of these issues in his book, "Life 3.0".

He likens the possible jobs that humans can do as a landscape with low-lying areas representing manual labor and mundane office work, and peaks representing art, philosophy, engineering, etc. His analogy is that machines have been slowly flooding the landscape since the beginning of the industrial revolution, displacing workers to higher ground. But, with the rise of AI, the pace of flooding is increasing, and the available dry land is diminishing. Sometime, likely in the next 20-30 years, depending on which AI expert you ask, there will be no task that a human could perform that could not be done better, and more cost-effectively by a machine.

If true, obviously this will have far-reaching consequences for many aspects civilization, not just jobs. The end game may be a society where humans are free to pursue their own self-development though art, literature, leisure, exploration, etc. Or, AI may ultimately see humans as irrelevant, or even counter to its own goals, and extinguish us.

In my opinion, as far as universal basic income goes, I agree with the posters that have already mentioned that it would be (classically) inflationary, as well as encourage sloth. I can't find the link at the moment, but I'm reminded of an academic waxing poetically about such a society where people would be free from the mundane tasks of working and instead pursue high-minded interests. He was mercilessly criticized for misjudging human nature, and predictions of people spending their days immersed in porn and video games ensued.


"100% of the people who confuse correlation and causation end up dying."
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Re: Universal Basic Income [BCtriguy1] [ In reply to ]
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BCtriguy1 wrote:
j p o wrote:


And I can understand if those pills don't go down easy for you. But I have come to believe pretty strongly they would help society.


The amazing thing is, there are societies out there that do provide those benefits, and there is no doubt they are better off, or happier, and living longer, then we are. You don't have to play make believe to think that.

My cousin married a Norwegian girl and lives over there. They have a lot of services like you mentioned that we don't. They do come at a cost, for sure, but, the benefit to society as a whole is very real.
Of course they'll encounter fewer issues with their 5 million citizens - of which 4.5 million are native born and the majority of the remainder are also of Scandinavian descent - than we will with our 327 million citizens - and 11 million undocumented/illegal immigrants and our melting pot of races and religions and ethnicities and history of slavery. Just look at those numbers: we have twice as many people in the US who aren't citizens and are almost exclusively poor migrants from Mexico and other Hispanic countries, than Norway has people in their country.

Totally disingenuous argument, this Scandinavian comparison, I laugh every time someone brings it up as though it's at all analogous to the US.
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Re: Universal Basic Income [spudone] [ In reply to ]
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spudone wrote:


So 10% not native born vs. 3% undocumented in your example. And I seriously doubt UBI would be going to non-citizens.

What makes Norway's system work is that they plan long term and don't have a rabid fear of paying for services they want on a national level. They created a government pension from their oil wealth that has helped as well.

OK again, if you're going to be disingenuous then what's the point in arguing the merits of this? 3% of people in the US are undocumented migrants. Another 17% are Hispanic immigrants. Another 13% are black people who are mostly native born but have a hugely disproportion percentage living in poverty and dealing with drug, crime and gang problems, largely stemming from slavery and racism and segregationist policy that has left an entire underclass of poor black people. Does Norway have even a tiny fraction of these types of challenges? How much federal US money is spent dealing with/combating these types of issues?

When your country is mostly one race, mostly one religion, has never dealt with segments of the population being enslaved, and doesn't have neighboring countries that are incredibly poor with largely poor, uneducated people trying to flood in you can definitely get stuff like this accomplished. We're not that country in the US, not by a long shot.
Last edited by: Brownie28: Jun 20, 18 10:54
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Re: Universal Basic Income [Brownie28] [ In reply to ]
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 "Think about it: you give every working-age person in the country $1,000, what happens to the cost of goods? They rise, dramatically. "

Maybe you already covered this (haven't read the whole thread), but what makes you think this?

I understand, for example, if you provide access to something like student loans, that drives up the demand for higher education, which drives up the prices. If all of the sudden everyone has access to an extra $50-$200K, that will affect the market.

The concept behind universal basic income isn't "extra" money, but replacement money. So today's low income person making $20K/year is tomorrow's out of work person making $20K/year. Lets say the math works a little differently and its $30K/year. Okay, and then over time the market adjusts such that they still have the same relative inflated income to today's $20K/year.

This would assume, of course, some sort of phasing in of the program.

-----------------------------Baron Von Speedypants
-----------------------------RunTraining articles here:
http://forum.slowtwitch.com/...runtraining;#1612485
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Re: Universal Basic Income [big kahuna] [ In reply to ]
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"The more you incentivize sloth, the more sloth you're gonna get."

I agree with you 1000%.

The problem is, what do you do when low skill / no skill jobs are all automated? Throw in AI, and even mid/high skill jobs might get automated?

And what's wrong with sloth if the work isn't needed? (Hmmm.....maybe unintended consequences? Like more gang activity because delinquents are bored?)

-----------------------------Baron Von Speedypants
-----------------------------RunTraining articles here:
http://forum.slowtwitch.com/...runtraining;#1612485
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Re: Universal Basic Income [Brownie28] [ In reply to ]
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Brownie28 wrote:
BCtriguy1 wrote:
j p o wrote:


And I can understand if those pills don't go down easy for you. But I have come to believe pretty strongly they would help society.


The amazing thing is, there are societies out there that do provide those benefits, and there is no doubt they are better off, or happier, and living longer, then we are. You don't have to play make believe to think that.

My cousin married a Norwegian girl and lives over there. They have a lot of services like you mentioned that we don't. They do come at a cost, for sure, but, the benefit to society as a whole is very real.
Of course they'll encounter fewer issues with their 5 million citizens - of which 4.5 million are native born and the majority of the remainder are also of Scandinavian descent - than we will with our 327 million citizens - and 11 million undocumented/illegal immigrants and our melting pot of races and religions and ethnicities and history of slavery. Just look at those numbers: we have twice as many people in the US who aren't citizens and are almost exclusively poor migrants from Mexico and other Hispanic countries, than Norway has people in their country.

Totally disingenuous argument, this Scandinavian comparison, I laugh every time someone brings it up as though it's at all analogous to the US.

Take a deep breath. You are argumenting against a position I am not taking.

Long Chile was a silly place.
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Re: Universal Basic Income [Brownie28] [ In reply to ]
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I'm 68 and I completely believe that in my lifetime most jobs will be done better by intelegent computers and robots than my men. Now it's fine for you to complain about how lazy the poor people will get when they now longer have their crappy job to go to but what about you. You will not be necessary! You will not have a job to go to! Same for your neighbors in you upper middle class neighborhood. Surgeons, judges, airline pilots, stock brokers; presto, chango, you are done. Can you write computer code? There will probably be a AI computer that can do it better! Maintain the network? Again; you lose!

So, now that you all are facing unemployment, how do you feel about a government mandated minimum yearly salary? And, how much do you want?

---------------------------
''Sweeney - you can both crush your AG *and* cruise in dead last!! 😂 '' Murphy's Law
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Re: Universal Basic Income [BarryP] [ In reply to ]
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BarryP wrote:
"Think about it: you give every working-age person in the country $1,000, what happens to the cost of goods? They rise, dramatically. "

Maybe you already covered this (haven't read the whole thread), but what makes you think this?

I understand, for example, if you provide access to something like student loans, that drives up the demand for higher education, which drives up the prices. If all of the sudden everyone has access to an extra $50-$200K, that will affect the market.

The concept behind universal basic income isn't "extra" money, but replacement money. So today's low income person making $20K/year is tomorrow's out of work person making $20K/year. Lets say the math works a little differently and its $30K/year. Okay, and then over time the market adjusts such that they still have the same relative inflated income to today's $20K/year.

This would assume, of course, some sort of phasing in of the program.
If you listen to the podcast, the concept is exactly what I posted: $1,000 to every working-age person in the country, every month. For folks already receiving some form of government welfare they'd basically choose their existing payout or the UBI.

So to me, yes many people would be losing productive jobs and working less-lucrative jobs and this would be 'replacement' income. But the vast majority of people would continue working their current jobs and just take this on as additional income. Net-net you'd have more money in the market, the supply and demand of food remains constant, you have some inflation and basic goods/food would wind up more expensive. I did say elsewhere in the thread that a 'dramatic' rise in prices is too extreme, but I can't imagine anyone would argue that there'd be inflationary pressures anytime you add ~$1.2T annually to the market.
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Re: Universal Basic Income [Brownie28] [ In reply to ]
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~Brad
Last edited by: bradword: Jun 20, 18 11:26
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Re: Universal Basic Income [big kahuna] [ In reply to ]
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big kahuna wrote:
Me to an employee (last year): "Why do you call off at least twice a week?"

Employee to me (said matter-of-factly): "Because I can't live on only two days of pay a week."

I worked with a guy in Miami in 1980, a real slacker, always missed days. The only reason he had a job was because his brother in law was the foreman. He used to like to tell that joke;

''You know why I work 4 days a week? Cause I can't make enough in three!''

---------------------------
''Sweeney - you can both crush your AG *and* cruise in dead last!! 😂 '' Murphy's Law
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Re: Universal Basic Income [Sweeney] [ In reply to ]
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Sweeney wrote:
I'm 68 and I completely believe that in my lifetime most jobs will be done better by intelegent computers and robots than my men. Now it's fine for you to complain about how lazy the poor people will get when they now longer have their crappy job to go to but what about you. You will not be necessary! You will not have a job to go to! Same for your neighbors in you upper middle class neighborhood. Surgeons, judges, airline pilots, stock brokers; presto, chango, you are done. Can you write computer code? There will probably be a AI computer that can do it better! Maintain the network? Again; you lose!

So, now that you all are facing unemployment, how do you feel about a government mandated minimum yearly salary? And, how much do you want?
Since I didn't say anything that you're implying, good work building your strawman without reading the thread. In fact my first post, I said specifically that the podcast hit on high skilled jobs as being replaced by AI as well - the example the talked about was Oncology as something that takes over a decade of specialized training that could disappear overnight in the not too distant future.

I'm arguing the merits of the UBI, because I think there are serious drawbacks and I also think it'd do more harm than good for the poorest people and ultimately result in a lot of inflationary pressure without doing a lot to solve the upcoming jobs/work crisis.

Also my job is quite safe, but thanks for your concern :)
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Re: Universal Basic Income [velocomp] [ In reply to ]
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velocomp wrote:
trail wrote:
I
Second, I don't think the price of most goods would rise "dramatically," except maybe in the short term. Supply rises to meet demand. In theory, once equilibrium is re-established, there'd only be a marginal change in price. Unless there's some hard constraint constraining growth in supply.


I disagree. If you look at college costs, I believe there is a direct correlation between access to federally available tuition assistance and rising costs of tuition

I agree 100%.
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Re: Universal Basic Income [bradword] [ In reply to ]
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Good clip. I guess where I disagree with Shapiro--because I mostly agree with his argument here--is that there IS an underclass of people forming that isn't captured in that 4% unemployment. He even talks about it, SSDI growing incredibly fast. That's a workaround, to date, of the lack of UBI and really plays to the most unmotivated in the country and their ability to game the system. But I wonder how this plays out when AI starts impacting people who WANT and CAN make a productive living, like the oncologists and computer programmers, but the robots are now able to do their work better (and cheaper) than them. What then? What about trucking, where the 3+ million truckers and the millions of jobs that support that industry--gas stations, diners, etc--rely on a profession that will be largely defunct 10, 15 years from now?
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Re: Universal Basic Income [Brownie28] [ In reply to ]
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Everyone wants to think their job is safe. Pilots thought they were safe but now we have drones. Yes you say but they have to have a drone pilot in a room somewhere. Put a AI computer in that seat and it can fly 100 drones at once.

So what is your safe job? And how much do you want guaranteed by the government when it's gone?

---------------------------
''Sweeney - you can both crush your AG *and* cruise in dead last!! 😂 '' Murphy's Law
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Re: Universal Basic Income [Bretom] [ In reply to ]
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Bretom wrote:


I disagree with almost all of this.


I acknowledge that everything your mention is a legitimate concern. I'm deeply worried about the increasingly diverging split between high-wage/low-wage classes.

But my job is robots, and replacing people with them, so naturally I'm a little more optimistic. I see them as freeing people for more productive labor, rather than stripping people of the opportunity to find value in labor.

That's a really cool quote thing you did, btw,
Last edited by: trail: Jun 20, 18 13:42
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Re: Universal Basic Income [Sweeney] [ In reply to ]
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Sweeney wrote:
Everyone wants to think their job is safe. Pilots thought they were safe but now we have drones. Yes you say but they have to have a drone pilot in a room somewhere. Put a AI computer in that seat and it can fly 100 drones at once.

So what is your safe job? And how much do you want guaranteed by the government when it's gone?
Eh it's easy to see why and how pilots can be automated, no different than driverless cars.

I'm a product guy, I work with bank operations folks, sales teams, regulatory/compliance people to determine what to prioritize in our accounting system and how to best meet needs for various projects. Even if AI can automate the code part, you still need people to decipher the regulations - which are constantly changing, and unless our politicians and the various regulatory bodies magically agree on one approach, it'll continue to change regularly - and also work through needs of clients and mock up sample reports etc. Unless federal (for dozens of nations) and industry regulators all agree to a static, universal accounting method and static compliance, operational and performance reports then as I said, my job is safe at least until I retire or the robots take control.
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Re: Universal Basic Income [Brownie28] [ In reply to ]
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Brownie28 wrote:
There have been some threads on here over the past year about the growing impact of robots and AI on the workforce and how it could impact far more than the blue collar fields we all think about. That in mind, Sam Harris - who has one of my favorite podcasts, Waking Up - spoke with Andrew Yang, who's a former CEO and serial entrepreneur and a big-time proponent of a Universal Basic Income. He's also running for President in 2020 with the UBI as his main driver and what he wants to get into the political conversation. Here's the podcast for anyone interested:
https://samharris.org/...versal-basic-income/

Give it a listen, they tackle some of the major benefits and criticisms, the reason why something like this is important and a few other topics.

One thing they DIDN'T tackle, and one of my main criticisms now that I've really started to think about it, is that this would be a majorly regressive program and do tons of damage to low income folks. Think about it: you give every working-age person in the country $1,000, what happens to the cost of goods? They rise, dramatically. For rich people they wouldn't notice, for upper middle and even middle class they'd see it but they'd be able to supplement with the new $1,000 and still be left with 'extra'. For poor people, if we're saying they'd have a choice of their current welfare payout OR the UBI check, they'd be getting minimally more than they had been getting but goods will be far more expensive - i.e. they're fucked. Not to mention goods would be taxed with a VAT and while they'd exclude necessities, it would mean less ability to pay for non-essentials for poor people.

I don't know...I totally agree that we have to figure out a solution asap because 20 years down the road our economy and job market will be dramatically different than it is right now and it'll cause disruptions in a whole host of industries, putting millions and millions out of work, but I don't think the UBI is the way to go. I do think the job bank idea has some merit, need to research that more but it's an interest concept I hadn't heard of.

Anyway, what do people think?

I think this has to happen, it's only a matter of time.

However, even before the recent tax cuts, fiscally we have problems. It is going to take massive corporate and upper class tax increases from where we are now to fund this. Even after the increases the tax rates will be "historically" low, even if there is a false dialogue now about how excessively high our taxes are.

One structural issues with this that will be interesting. Assuming it is enough to live on, a lot of low wage workers are not going to work anymore. Granted some of these jobs are not needed because of automation, but say Taco Bell still needs some employees. How much do they have to pay to get enough people? Obvious solution is just let illegals take the jobs; for this reason alone the wall is a bad idea. Once we are on universal income, nobody but illegals are going to do a lot of the lower rung jobs.
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Re: Universal Basic Income [Brownie28] [ In reply to ]
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Quote:

Totally disingenuous argument, this Scandinavian comparison, I laugh every time someone brings it up as though it's at all analogous to the US.


Sorry, it happens in lots of countries. Germany assimilated all of the failed Eastern Germany, has a significant long-term immigrant population, and a large migrant worker population. The UK and France would be two other examples. Ideologically we simply reject solutions that work in countries that have issues that are quite similar to ours. You don't have to look any further than the 50 different policies in the USA. With some notable exceptions, states that implement more progressive approaches to poverty reduction are economically stronger than ones that don't.

BTW, I'm a music teacher and choir director, so my job is pretty resistant to automation. When I direct a show, I am often forced to buy a pre-recorded track, because hiring a local pit orchestra is too expensive for the budget of that group.
Last edited by: oldandslow: Jun 20, 18 23:06
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Re: Universal Basic Income [trail] [ In reply to ]
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trail wrote:
Brownie28 wrote:

Well what about all those old manufacturing towns and coal towns where there's 50% unemployment among working-age men? Trump's base are a base precisely because of sea change in available jobs and the complete inability of people to find gainful employment and how it's ripped apart entire regions of people.


I see those as more short term. And by short-term I mean 1-2 generations. The national unemployment rate is low. Many sectors are desperate for workers.

Anyone unable to find gainful employment right now just isn't trying very hard.

And though I play libral on this forum, I don't think that pouring free money on top of those areas with 50% unemployment is a great motivational strategy to get them to learn new, in-demand skills.

Personally I've always felt that our approach to unemployment should follow economic conditions: emphasis on transfer payments in a recession when unemployment is high and emphasis on training when we are in an expansion and unemployment is low (not either or, just a change of the blend).
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Re: Universal Basic Income [Brownie28] [ In reply to ]
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"So to me, yes many people would be losing productive jobs and working less-lucrative jobs and this would be 'replacement' income. But the vast majority of people would continue working their current jobs and just take this on as additional income. Net-net you'd have more money in the market, the supply and demand of food remains constant, you have some inflation and basic goods/food would wind up more expensive. I did say elsewhere in the thread that a 'dramatic' rise in prices is too extreme, but I can't imagine anyone would argue that there'd be inflationary pressures anytime you add ~$1.2T annually to the market. "

Again, it would depend on how you implement it. I didn't think you'd be adding $1.2T.

-----------------------------Baron Von Speedypants
-----------------------------RunTraining articles here:
http://forum.slowtwitch.com/...runtraining;#1612485
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Re: Universal Basic Income [BarryP] [ In reply to ]
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BarryP wrote:

Again, it would depend on how you implement it. I didn't think you'd be adding $1.2T.
This is true, but I'm basing this off Yang's commentary on the podcast...the man's running for President, we have to take him at his word!

But seriously, what's the balance between 1. enough money that those 'left behind' in our new robot age can subsist, but 2. not so much money that it doesn't bankrupt the nation and doesn't spin the economy into some sort of inflationary recession? How does this monthly payment impact the low-wage, non-robot job market (if at all)?

I just have a lot of questions about the UBI and the economic impact and mostly, when I think about it, I don't get a good sense that it'd be a net benefit, even if I do concede that something needs to be done to plan for what will be millions of disappearing jobs in all kinds of professions.
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Re: Universal Basic Income [spudone] [ In reply to ]
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It would be interesting to have an actual person who lives in a Scandinavian country to post about their welfare system. I looked at it a while ago and countries have had changes over time. At some times one could get welfare with few questions asked, not expected to work but it looked like in many cases if you were fit an able you are still expected to work or train to work. The other thing is most of those countries are only 1-2 generations removed from the vast majority of people more or less fending for themselves.. In other words the work ethic is still there even if one can get away without working. At least for most folks.

They constantly try to escape from the darkness outside and within
Dreaming of systems so perfect that no one will need to be good T.S. Eliot

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