Max Tegmark, the MIT Cosmologist, addresses some of these issues in his book, "Life 3.0".
He likens the possible jobs that humans can do as a landscape with low-lying areas representing manual labor and mundane office work, and peaks representing art, philosophy, engineering, etc. His analogy is that machines have been slowly flooding the landscape since the beginning of the industrial revolution, displacing workers to higher ground. But, with the rise of AI, the pace of flooding is increasing, and the available dry land is diminishing. Sometime, likely in the next 20-30 years, depending on which AI expert you ask, there will be no task that a human could perform that could not be done better, and more cost-effectively by a machine.
If true, obviously this will have far-reaching consequences for many aspects civilization, not just jobs. The end game may be a society where humans are free to pursue their own self-development though art, literature, leisure, exploration, etc. Or, AI may ultimately see humans as irrelevant, or even counter to its own goals, and extinguish us.
In my opinion, as far as universal basic income goes, I agree with the posters that have already mentioned that it would be (classically) inflationary, as well as encourage sloth. I can't find the link at the moment, but I'm reminded of an academic waxing poetically about such a society where people would be free from the mundane tasks of working and instead pursue high-minded interests. He was mercilessly criticized for misjudging human nature, and predictions of people spending their days immersed in porn and video games ensued.
"100% of the people who confuse correlation and causation end up dying."
He likens the possible jobs that humans can do as a landscape with low-lying areas representing manual labor and mundane office work, and peaks representing art, philosophy, engineering, etc. His analogy is that machines have been slowly flooding the landscape since the beginning of the industrial revolution, displacing workers to higher ground. But, with the rise of AI, the pace of flooding is increasing, and the available dry land is diminishing. Sometime, likely in the next 20-30 years, depending on which AI expert you ask, there will be no task that a human could perform that could not be done better, and more cost-effectively by a machine.
If true, obviously this will have far-reaching consequences for many aspects civilization, not just jobs. The end game may be a society where humans are free to pursue their own self-development though art, literature, leisure, exploration, etc. Or, AI may ultimately see humans as irrelevant, or even counter to its own goals, and extinguish us.
In my opinion, as far as universal basic income goes, I agree with the posters that have already mentioned that it would be (classically) inflationary, as well as encourage sloth. I can't find the link at the moment, but I'm reminded of an academic waxing poetically about such a society where people would be free from the mundane tasks of working and instead pursue high-minded interests. He was mercilessly criticized for misjudging human nature, and predictions of people spending their days immersed in porn and video games ensued.
"100% of the people who confuse correlation and causation end up dying."