https://www.tcsnycmarathon.org/...qualifying-standards

"A limited number of time-qualifier spots were available to runners who met the time standards in a non-NYRR race. These spots were filled on a first-come, first-served basis. Applicants who applied with a non-NYRR race qualifying time were placed in the nonguaranteed entry drawing until their time could be verified. Verification was completed prior to the drawing on February 28, 2018. Those who applied with a non-NYRR race qualifying time after the number of spots available had been reached were placed in the non-guaranteed entry drawing."

Does anyone have any idea of what percent make it through on time, but from non-NYRR races?

I'm looking to run the race with my Dad (he and I have a goal to run the 6 majors together) - so I'd like to know that I'm reasonably guaranteed entry. His plan is to run NY via travel agency in 2019 so I'd like to give him some assurance that I'll get in if I post a time so he can pull the trigger himself - otherwise I may go the travel agency route also.

If anyone has any intel on what the odds may be, it would be much appreciated. Thanks!