Has anybody checked on JSA? Should we put him on suicide watch?

over Paul Ryan not running for re-election?

I'm gonna go out on a limb and say this will be a net positive for JSA

He loves Paul Ryan

so do I. And I see his not running for re-election as a long term net positive.

I disagree. Why would he play that card now? Why not see how everything plays out before taking that side? If it’s as bad as you predict with the current admin, it will just as much in 2,6,10 years as it does right now. Unless someone has some super scandalous stuff on him, I think the inferences we make about his departure point to him losing faith in the current climate.

Who'd had any faith in the climate in the last 10 years?

Ryan has navigated the political waters of the last 24 months about as well as you can. He is not running for re-election. Despite Sanuk's ludicrous position (that he's sold his soul or remained silent) he has stood up to a chief executive of his own party as well and as often as any speaker I can remember. Especially about personally distasteful conduct and speech. He has "worked with" the President and Congess to pass the conservative items on the agenda he could control. Most especially the tax reform law which he has been calling for since he arrived 20 years ago.

He is stepping away prior to any blue tsunami. If it occurs and the Rep Party re-groups around a "real conservative" he will be in the best position to make that himself. If that doesn't happen and the Trump mindset continues he doesn't have to spend his time fighting or being in the middle of it.

He is 48. 20 year conservative track record. No hint of scandal. Presided over a majority of congress and accomplished conservative things. In a difficult political climate with the most difficult chief executive ever he got his principle agenda item passed. And he can now stay out of the rest of this administrations fray for however long it lasts.

He can return at the appropriate time with a track record of conservative service. And with entitlement reform as an agenda plank (something that will get 0 traction currently).

This is a great move.

Why would he play that card now? Why not see how everything plays out before taking that side?

Maybe he is looking at how things are moving and decided to bail now. The Mueller investigation is still moving forward, people are resigning regularly, the threats in the Middle East are growing etc. He likely thought people would be okay with Trump after the tax bill was passed but now sees more problems ahead.

One thing all politicians share is the protection of self-interest so I think he is making his calculation now, and looking ahead to 2020. People have short memories and in those 2 years, he can sell himself as the guy who got the tax bill passed and slowly distance himself from Trump. I think he will jump back in to run for President in 2020.

Just so we are clear. I think him leaving now is a great career move in the short term and a phenomenal move long term. My comment about playing that card was in reference to you saying the longer he took to come out against Trump the worse it would be. I disagree with that stance.

I saw him hanging around near the University of Wisconsin clock tower, big black duffel bag nearby. He had a strange look on his face, for some reason. ;-)

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"Politics is just show business for ugly people."

I think his time horizon is past 2020 depending on how/if things implode in next 12 months. He has plenty of things to do and people to work with in the conservative world in the meantime. He has the obligatory "heroes of my fathers" book to write. Etc Etc. I think his time horizon for stepping back into the ring is "when the time is right". I think he could wait through Trump's second term and 2 terms from a candidate from the other party.

I don't think he will directly challenge an incumbent and sitting President. Maybe an installed one. Maybe not. I think time is on his side. I think he has played this well and will use to his advantage.

I do wonder if there isn't something else going on here. Ryan is currently second in line to be President, with the very real possibility of the removal or resignation of the sitting President at some point, and who knows, maybe the Veep would be cast out too for his involvement with the same shenanigans. Thus, assuming Ryan does want to be President, he's giving up a possible, even if unlikely, path that could have him there in short order.

In our history, no Speaker has ever succeeded to the Presidency. I don't think that possibility is really large enough to even take into consideration.

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Slowguy

(insert pithy phrase here...)

you and I don't see that path in the same way. Even your term "even if unlikely" is a stretch. Even if I don't want it to be.

I don't see the current President being removed or resigning in the next 18 months. In less time than that the campaign season will start.

I see even less of a chance that the Vice President would follow.

I think anyone who gives either of these things much of a chance is not looking at it from "the other sides" perspective. This would not occur without a fight. A big one.

Under that backdrop does Ryan or anyone "want" the job next. Again, you have to think your way through what this country looks like under conditions as you've laid out. I simply don't think this country is willing or prepared to go through that (regardless of whether it should or not).

And finally, I don't assume Ryan wants to be President. At least not in the same way some people (read Hillary) have wanted to be President in the past. I think he could be fine being a very well paid pundent, working for the RNC etc etc. I think he is very much a Republican idealougue. In the same way I think Obama was a Dem ideologue. I think he has a vision of what is and would make this country great. Most of which I agree with. Some of which goes farther than I would.

But he is a Jack Kemp/ Ronald Reagan disciple. And if many of the things in this country he doesn't care for continue to go sideways I think he would look for the right opportunity to be President to push his ideology.

I just think all the short term thinkers here who think his moves have anything to do with only the last 18 months haven't been paying attention to his political career . I think becoming speaker and passing tax reform have been on a long term checklist. The timing happened around Trump. And I think to think he is going to jump at 2020 is a stretch also. I think he will go for the Presidency if and when the time and conditions are right.

I though it was even worse than that, from like a 4:30 down to a 2:50, no? "To the best of his recollection" or some shit ~ as if anyone could somehow just casually forget about running for an extra hour and a half at that point.

I though it was even worse than that, from like a 4:30 down to a 2:50, no? "To the best of his recollection" or some shit ~ as if anyone could somehow just casually forget about running for an extra hour and a half at that point.//

You know the ST sleuths here, they actually found the race where he PR'ed in, it was a 4;01+. What he recalled on that radio show where he said he runs 10 miles a day, was that he recalls running low 2;50's. I actually think he was lying about both of those things, you don't run 10 miles a day and not know what pace you run, at least the difference from 6;30 pace vs 9 minute pace. Those two paces are as far apart as Mercury and Pluto...

Now that he's balanced the budget, his work in DC is finished.

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“Read the transcript.”

Probably, Kevin McCarthy is the right replacement of Ryan

I think it is really simple. He has had so much WINNING, thanks to Donnie the Lying Douchebag, that he has become bored with it.

 
Furious Koch Brothers Sell Paul Ryan on eBay

I think he could wait through Trump's second term

and Elizabeth Warren's 2nd term