Just a few days left, since its a regional championship i assume there will be coverage so have freed my calendar.
I think it will be a crazy fast time, maybe sub 7:50. Last year burgs went 47-4:17-2:52 for 8:02 and i think Gomez will pretty much match his swim/bike but i think he’ll run sub 2:40. Wouldn’t be surprised if he dropped the hammer and ran something stupid like a 2:35 to freak out some kona contenders,

Personal opinion but if I was him and new I could run a 2:35....basically I would run a 2:50 and/or the bare minimum to win.

Then in post race interviews I would say every humble thing about “underestimating the distance” “my aim is to win Kona in 2020” “I have nutritional issues to figure out” “my goal is to have fun, get Kona experience and come top 5 if things go well” etc...etc...

I would keep a sub 2:35 potential in my back pocket.

Anyways should be a great race!

This is probably the most likely scenario and it's certainly Gomez' usual approach to do 'just enough' for the W.

But.....

He has been following an intense race calendar for the last few years, full ITU series and a couple of 70.3's on top so it has really been in his best interests for reaching the season's goals to keep doing 'just enough' for the W so he can go again in 3 weeks. He's had absolutely nothing to gain by extending a winning margin.

He's lightly raced this year in comparison, with just the one target. I would assume this is his one and only pre Kona IM, so 1-2 weeks recovery are not an issue. Whilst the W would be most important there is lots to gain, and learn from giving it a bit of tickle even if the W is in the bag. You don't really know you have a 2:35 in the locker unless you go pretty close to it, and test yourself after a hard swim/bike. It would test the nutrition strategy as well in hot humid conditions. I don't think he'll go into Lionel territory, but he must be tempted to push and prove some things to himself.

I think everyone should consult ST before they do anything.

I don't see Gomez keeping pace with TB on the bike and then burying himself to bring TB back on the run. Then again, Gomez is a freak, and June isn't usually when TB is unbeatable, so who knows.

Gomez has worked a lot on his position, so I don't expect him to be that far behind, plus I don't really get why everyone seems to think he is a bad biker. TB had about the same split as Lange and the front pack in Kona and I would definitely think Gomez could keep up with them. My guess is Gomez comes first out of the water and the spends most of the ride legally drafting tb.

Ironman live page is up. Not looking like any streaming coverage.

Gomez has worked a lot on his position, so I don't expect him to be that far behind, plus I don't really get why everyone seems to think he is a bad biker. TB had about the same split as Lange and the front pack in Kona and I would definitely think Gomez could keep up with them. My guess is Gomez comes first out of the water and the spends most of the ride legally drafting tb.

Gomez has worked a lot on his position, so I don't expect him to be that far behind, plus I don't really get why everyone seems to think he is a bad biker. TB had about the same split as Lange and the front pack in Kona and I would definitely think Gomez could keep up with them. My guess is Gomez comes first out of the water and the spends most of the ride legally drafting tb.