Might get worse yet, as Bolton will consistently be a voice pushing to be hard on Russia.

ps Sorry for you if this continues to negatively affect plans.

No impact to me. I was caught in the last round of expulsions and embassy reductions, so my Russia plans are already out the window.

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Slowguy

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The problem is that expelling diplomats might seem like a big deal but it is meaningless to Putin who would see that as a weak response.

Putin reacts to strength and the only thing that would get his attention is going after his wealth or that of his friends. He was angry when the U.S and Canada passed the Magnitsky Act but Britain watered it down so much that is was a joke and Putin knows it. Britain could have sent a strong message by going after the wealthy oligarchs living in London but they expelled a few diplomats to avoid angering Russia. Putin would be laughing.

It's worth noting that 12 of those expelled from the U.S. were not diplomats, but "intelligence officers" a.k.a. spies. That plausibly undermines Russian efforts to perform intelligence operations in the U.S., which is a worthy side-effect vs. "punishment."

Probably some registered diplomats are also spies, but that's another story

I don't think Putin is laughing at expelled diplomats from more than a dozen countries. That's a pretty significant diplomatic black eye. A big part of what Putin is trying to achieve is to raise Russia's status as a major player in the eyes of the world. This doesn't help.

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Slowguy

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We expelled 60 people. I can pretty much guarantee that more than 20 of them were intelligence officers.

And by the way, "diplomat" and "intelligence officer" are not mutually exclusive terms.

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Slowguy

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I guess your way of saying it is slightly clearer....

I just mean that you can be a plain old intelligence officer (not a James Bond style spy) and be a diplomat. A major part of the role of a diplomat, by international agreement, is to observe the conditions in the host country and report to your own country to inform decision makers. That sometimes involves openly declared intelligence officers who are professionals in the intelligence community and diplomats assigned to embassies or consulates.

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Slowguy

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Who is getting worse deal here. Ruskies going back to Russia or westerners going back to the West?

Kind of depends. On either side, it sucks to be told you have 72hrs to a week to pack up your stuff, your pets, your family and move to another country, even if it's back home. I would say that, in general, Westerners expelled from Russia have a better time of it than vice versa. In this situation, nobody's being expelled for something specific that they did. It might be different if you were individually expelled because you screwed up.

In general, of course, quality of life is better here and in most Western countries, than it is in most of Russia.

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Slowguy

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