So 1300 products. Many part of China's technology strategy will be subject to tariffs.

Just laat week at the end of the party conference China announced that ontology pharmaceuticals amongst others could be imported tariff free.

How will they respond?

One of my colleagues here thinks it will be a hostile takeover of Taiwan and HK

If not now he thinks they will do this at someone point this year.

http://www.newsweek.com/president-xi-jinping-warns-taiwan-any-attempts-split-china-doomed-fail-853412

given jinping alluded to both HK and taiwan in beijing last week i am not sure who is clueless

he did again this week at a military base in hubei

they do not want the continued special status for taiwan, hk, and macau

Mini trade spats pop up all the time. Taiwan tensions also ebb and flow. Even if this trade spat turns into something more significant, there is no way China will use it as a pretext for more drastic action over Taiwan. And the article you cited makes no assertion that the two issues are related.

China and the US both know they need each other. Probably us more than them, especially given their enormous holdings of US debt. On 10th January 10-year UST yields spiked through 2.50% on reports that China may buy less US treasuries. China played it down, but it shows the power they have over our economy. China will act proportionately and only escalate if they feel the need, and even that escalation would be nothing like what you are talking about. Rather, it would likely just be more tariffs on US goods.

The chinese holding our debt thing is sooo overblown. They own a teeny tiny portion of what the US is worth but everyone acts like they own us. If they were to suddenly cash all of their treasury bonds in (which they can't) it would be a mere blip on the US economy.

The greater implication is what would happen to china. Western countries are responsible for 40% of China's economy. A serious trade war/ebargo with the US and it's allies would completely devastate china economically, and by proxy, politically.

China's response will not be ham-fisted but start soft and build until the desired balance is struck. China's response will be intelligent, balanced and diplomatic. Like America's foreign and trade policy used to be.

China will start by encouraging domestic business to buy local or European goods and services. I suspect Chinese airlines will opt more frequently for Airbus than Boeing. Award engineering contracts to Siemens over GE. It will be a gentle, subtle but palatable shift. Industry will try and put pressure on the Gov't and hopefully get the current Administration to reconsider.

If that does not work, China will retaliate by increasing tariffs on key American products. The aforementioned aircraft, and on cars. Guess where General Motors sells 3.9M cars per year? China. (vs. 3.0M GM cars sold in the US). China is a big market and still growing. https://qz.com/...t-selling-car-there/
China could even start throttling US tech giants from selling there - maybe Apple will be declared 'in cahoots' with the CIA and get banned in China.

At this point trade will decrease and both economies will be feeling the pain. Any victory in such a trade war would be Pyrrhic.
If Trump is (unwisely) willing to keep the trade war going, China may be forced to test its growing geopolitical sphere of influence. It could start convincing, bribing and cajoling the various East Asian nations to pick a side. I suspect many, if not most, will go with China. Why wouldn't they? China is 4 times larger than the US in population, its local, its growing much more rapidly, its been traditional global power for most of its 5000 year history, its culturally more similar.

This is a stupid fight to pick. Its unnecessary. Its quite clear that US History will not look back kindly on Trump, but this trade war decision may be seen as one of the major contributors to accelerating the decline of the American empire.

The chinese holding our debt thing is sooo overblown. They own a teeny tiny portion of what the US is worth but everyone acts like they own us. If they were to suddenly cash all of their treasury bonds in (which they can't) it would be a mere blip on the US economy.

The greater implication is what would happen to china. Western countries are responsible for 40% of China's economy. A serious trade war/ebargo with the US and it's allies would completely devastate china economically, and by proxy, politically.

China announced that ontology pharmaceuticals amongst others could be imported tariff free.

China's response will not be ham-fisted but start soft and build until the desired balance is struck. China's response will be intelligent, balanced and diplomatic. Like America's foreign and trade policy used to be.

China will start by encouraging domestic business to buy local or European goods and services. I suspect Chinese airlines will opt more frequently for Airbus than Boeing. Award engineering contracts to Siemens over GE. It will be a gentle, subtle but palatable shift. Industry will try and put pressure on the Gov't and hopefully get the current Administration to reconsider.

If that does not work, China will retaliate by increasing tariffs on key American products. The aforementioned aircraft, and on cars. Guess where General Motors sells 3.9M cars per year? China. (vs. 3.0M GM cars sold in the US). China is a big market and still growing. https://qz.com/...t-selling-car-there/
China could even start throttling US tech giants from selling there - maybe Apple will be declared 'in cahoots' with the CIA and get banned in China.

At this point trade will decrease and both economies will be feeling the pain. Any victory in such a trade war would be Pyrrhic.
If Trump is (unwisely) willing to keep the trade war going, China may be forced to test its growing geopolitical sphere of influence. It could start convincing, bribing and cajoling the various East Asian nations to pick a side. I suspect many, if not most, will go with China. Why wouldn't they? China is 4 times larger than the US in population, its local, its growing much more rapidly, its been traditional global power for most of its 5000 year history, its culturally more similar.

This is a stupid fight to pick. Its unnecessary. Its quite clear that US History will not look back kindly on Trump, but this trade war decision may be seen as one of the major contributors to accelerating the decline of the American empire.

How could chinese steel tarrifs affect Australia...


Those damn supply chain issues