what's your best 10k time in the past year or so?

45:49, but it was a really hot day and into the wind all the way. I think I could do at least a couple of minutes better.

You should try to spice up more than your weekend runs with more mileage. I'd say that you definitely want to get up to 10+ mile runs within a few weeks, if not 10 days from now. You've got the gas tank to do it already and your body will appreciate the experience. Just remember to allow for a nice 5-mile recovery run the next day, instead of pushing an 8-miler or extensive repeats. Your daily mileage should vary between 6 and 10 miles with a dip down to maybe 4 miles every other week or so (maybe after a crazy 10x800m repeats day). Try to hold your shorter runs (when not recovery runs) at a higher pace. Since you know you can do 8 at 7:30, try to run your next 5- or 6-miler near 7. If possible change your route, too. Get used to all kinds of terrain at different points in your run. Amazingly, your body will otherwise begin to expect that particular hill at that particular point every time you run.

It sounds like you're headed in the right direction, so keep up your work! And yeah, a 9-12 day taper is a good thing...especially if this is your 'A' race.

Happy running.

An 8 pace is too fast for your long run. That is "race pace" in a half run in 1:45. Run farther -- up to 15 miles, but slow down, mate. You don't need to take 6 weeks to build up to 15. Go 8, 10, 12, 15. You can do it if you just take it easy. 15 miles with walk breaks every 20 minutes is better than 8 miles done too hard.

Keep the recovery cost of that long run to a minimum. Fuel and drink copiously. You should be able to run 6-8 miles comfortably the day after your long run at the same pace.

Jack Daniels' book would say that your long run should be no faster than 8:50 or so with your 10K time (even adjusted as you say). And -- Daniels' book is notorious for giving out too-fast pace times for MOP masters' runners. I'd say you're a lot safer doing easy-long runs at 9:15-9:45.

I say this with some experience because my 10K time and half mary time are about the same as yours, but I can run 8's only by pushing pretty hard (marathon pace). I do easy and long runs at 9:15-9:30. 10 if it's hilly.

You'll also get a big pickup by running often. 6-7 days a week if you can swing it. 3-4 easy pace days (incl. long run) and a couple of faster days.

If you can do 6 days of running with a 15-mile long run, all done around 9 to 9:30 pace, you will cruise to a 1:45. The only extra thing you need to do is start tempo runs 6-8 weeks out. These would be 30-40 minutes at a little slower than 10k pace. Probably 7:30 or so in your case. Faster than goal 1/2 mary pace, but a little easier than 10k.

I do a "marathon pace" run every three weeks too, which is 75-90 minutes at 1/2-marathon goal pace plus 30 seconds.

Slow down that long run and save the energy for your tempo or marathon-pace runs.

BTW--I'm targeting a January half, also. San Diego.

A thought on pacing...

I was wondering how accurate your self-tested paces are. You could be running faster or slower than you think if you're doing road runs. A nice thing to do every once in while is a test at the track.

Pick your "comfortable cruising pace" HR. Let's say it's 140. Warm up by jogging a mile or two, stretch and get ready to go.

Run:

1200 meters. Use 400 to get up to 125 HR (do not go over and back down). Time the 800. Stop, write down your time and HR. Also note effort level and level of discomfort.

Another 1200. Same protocol, but use the 400 to get up to 135. Hold HR for 800; stop and write results.

1200 at 145

1200 at 155

1200 at 165 or top out somewhere.

Faster runners (<40 10k guys) might do 1600's.

This test will peg your paces unequivocally. I do it about every 8 weeks. I enjoy learning that I'm not improving at all. ;-)