What a great stage! It was great to see all of the attacks. I waited until 6pm to watch so I could see the OLN coverage. It was so hard not to check the results beforehand.

I give Lance a slight edge for the win. Maybe a 60% chance.

I think Beloki, Mayo, Hamilton, and Vinokourov will fight to the end. Beforehand, I didn't think Tyler had a shot at the podium but seeing his performance with the broken collarbone, I think he would have had as good a chance as anyone at the overall win. I don't think Jan is completely out of it yet, either. He didn't lose that much time today(1:24) and I think he will only get stronger.

I also predict that from now own, teams will focus more on the team TT. I guess we'll never know if Lance could have covered the move by Mayo had he not been so far back in overall time due to his teams' poor TTT.

The good news is, we might finally see a competitive Tour.

I don't think Mr. Armstrong is nearly as tired as the rest of the crew bringing up the rear. He's smart enough to expend only the amount of energy required to get ahead and stay ahead. There's so much racing left to go, it wouldn't be prudent to blow everyone away on a climb this early in the race. What if he didn't recover well, or if the effort resulted in some bronchitis or an illness (such as a cold, etc) was able to gain a foothold and manifest itself.

No, Mr. Armstrong is WAY more calculating and intelligent than that. He will maintain his lead and lengthen it as he deems appropriate. If you taped any of the race, go back and look at the calm concentration on LA's face during hard climbs, and compare his face and body movements to the others. The Man isn't overexerting himself. The others are red-lining their engines, it's written all over their faces and shown in their body language. Last year, he faked a grimace for the cameras, then sheepishly chuckled about it later as he blew the field apart. I think he was almost embarrassed to have fed the media frenzy surrounding him, but he gave them something to whail about for a few minutes..."Is he cracking???!!!Just look at that grimace...etc.", it was hilarious. This year, he may be in even better condition. The 100'th anniversary TDF is now in his control, and it will be a great race to watch as he surgically dissects the course and his competitors.

The only things that can now beat Mr. Armstrong are wrecks, failures of bikes and/or parts, crazy people out on the road that obstruct him, illness, etc., and these are real problems that must be overcome/avoided. But, he won't have to be so crafty as to out-think and out-maneuver some rider that is better than him. And that is precisely what the other riders will have to do to beat Mr. Armstrong...it isn't going to happen.

The other riders are not capable of surpassing Mr. Armstrong by virtue of their cycling abilities, simply because Mr. Armstrong is the best overall rider out there...AND he is in the lead, AND he is focused, AND he is a very smart tactitian, AND he has probably the best team supporting him.

PS: LA could have covered the move by Mayo, and Colonel Mustard, as well as Ketchup and French Fries. It simply wasn't necessary to do so at the time.

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Quid quid latine dictum sit altum videtur
(That which is said in Latin sounds profound)

You would't be seeing things through postal-colored glasses would you? Well, you could definitely look for a job in Lance's pr department. I agree that Lance still has to be given the edge for the victory because I feel he has the best combo of TTing and climbing ability, but I think you give him a bit too much credit and not enough to the other great riders out there. Yaquicarbo, you don't think things will be at least interesting this year? Wouldn't you like to see a close tour for once?

My dream scenario:

Lance needing to make up some time going into the final TT. He either just does it or comes up short by a couple of seconds. The final stage into Paris sees some real action for the 1st time in a while and the race is decided there. Yeah, I know I'm dreaming...

i don't know for sure if lance could have covered mayo's move or not(as mr. yaqui states), but i do know he didn't even try so it's hard to say exactly where his form might be. i do know that beloki launched a serious attack(something i wasn't sure he was capable of) and once heras dropped, lance seemed to bridge pretty easily/comfortably, and then marked every other counter(except for vinokourov's) with ease. i am torn between thinking he is slipping somewhat or whether he waiting for the first tt and the pyrenees. it does seem as if the other gc contenders have all decided to be much more proactive than in year's past...

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f/k/a mclamb6