Indeed, it still is early as the northern hemispere season is barely underway. However, Tim DeBoom continues to impress. After he admitted to having a low-key winter of training he has outclassed many of the key contenders in his two outings to date. It appears that he is taking the Mark Allan approach of only doing one Ironman a year and that one IM will be IMH and it will be the focus of his year. It's a program that appears to be working well for him.

Reid has a completely new attitude and will be a factor.

Macca, is definately that package that all the estabished stars fear most. He has no weakness, other than his relative inexperience at ultra-long racing. If he does put it all together on race day with his BEST swim/bike/run he will win.

People go on an on about Larsen, and the other super bikers. I mean no disrespect to these great athletes, but the men's race at Hawaii always comes down to the run. If you can't run well under 2:50, then you will not win this race. Larsen & Co. do play a role in the dynamics of how the race unfolds, but it has always come down to the run. Not necessarily the fastest run, but the one who is best placed at T2, who will then run the fastest. DeBoom and previously Reid have this tactic down to a science.

On the women's side - Badmann defies my previous statement that IMH is won on the run. She wins it on the bike - hands down. Badman is no slouch on the run, but the likes of Bowden, Bentley, Fuhr and others are clearly faster on the run. The question is can they keep it close enough on the bike to make it happen on the run. They have had a few years to figure this out. I am waiting for a breakthrough on this front. Perhaps this is the year.

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Steve Fleck @stevefleck | Blog

I dont know whether he had a low key winter or not but I have to say a healthy skepticism of what they say is wise if only because they know that other pro's are reading this and seeing Tim taking it ez.......well it just dont make sense...

That said it has to be Reid, Tim and Macca going in to HA this year. LVL would be the surprise like Reid was last year. Dont think there are any Germans that will win but certainly Thomas could be at the sharp end.

Lieto and Larsen could stir things up as well and if Walton showed as well things could get interesting.

More interesting would be Lessing, Macca and Walton on the swim and bike, that could completely split the field................it is to early for this speculation.

Luc van Lierde.

Winning Ironman Malaysia shows that he still has what it takes. His swim and bike were outstanding, and although he slowed there on the run due to some vomiting, he has a run that can beat anyone in Hawaii when he is "on."

I like Macca's package, but LVL lead the swim in Malaysia (against Bryan Rhodes), he has matched Hellriegel on the bike in Hawaii (1996 and 1999), and has an outstanding run.

Watch Luc come out of the water near the front, hang with Macca and company (getting away from DeBoom and Reid), and then out-run the "bikers" and hold off the other good runners.

His endurance is good from Malaysia, and mid-summer will be focused on speed. It should be a good race.

Aren't we getting off topic a bit?

(Yes I'm immature and I couldn't resist)

I don't disagree with anything anyone has said. However, one person not mentioned who I think can be a real contender is Spencer Smith (even if he insists on wearing pink again). I know that he has had a number of problems at IMH, but I think he has the talent and the hunger. If he can get rid of the mistakes, he will be able to challenge the top guys.

One thing is almost a certainty this year: this should be the most competitive race in many years--it seems all the contenders will show up this year in top form, ready to race, and nervous about the competition.

Having said all that, my prediction: Macca--he will go all out from the start and open a lead on the top runners. If his run holds together, I think he will win.

Timmy D finally gets some respect by running down everybody (Luc included) for his third title. Macca gets to spend another year dissing everyone that finished the race ahead of him (all 2,000 of them) as weak poseurs.

That 2:58 run speed of yours can't hold off Timmy D, Macca. I don't care how fast you ride. If Timmy D wanted to run 2:58, he could match your bike split, too.

But Timmy D likes to run sub-2:48 and pass up all the wonders from down under.

That said, if Luc shows up on form, it'll be a thriller down to the tape. Tim, Peter and Luc turning the corner and sprinting for home. Tim by a nose. Spencer a few minutes back with Cam Brown. The usual suspects round out the top ten (Larsen included; maybe Macca back there if he doesn't quit after the Tim/Peter/Cam train goes rolling past around mile 20).

Funny, I used to like Macca. Now I'm sick of hearing him talk about about how lousy everyone else is.

a really hard time thinking that a brit, especially one SS size will ever do great in HA i.e. win.

Would love to be proven wrong but he seems to really suffer in the heat yet lives and trains in a hottish climate, dont see him winning although germans have done it so who knows????????????????

Question is how much of a lead will the bikers (Larsen, Macca, Hellreigel) have once TD and Peter start the run. If Maccas lead is over ten minutes then a 2:58 marathon is possibly good enough?

I think we'll see some serious hammering on the bike with Larsen and others who want to stay with him. Should be a great race. TD might have to wait to pass guys after the energy lab.