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Re: Nordstream Sabotage [TimeIsUp] [ In reply to ]
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TimeIsUp wrote:

Sorry, I meant the US. Wouldn’t a strike on infrastructure coming directly from us be a declaration of war?

I wouldn't call clandestine (relatively) minor damage to non-operational pipelines in international waters very close to strong U.S. allies a very good "declaration of war."

Pretty passive-aggressive, not 'Murican style. I'd hope we open up WWIII a little stronger than that. :)
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Re: Nordstream Sabotage [trail] [ In reply to ]
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trail wrote:
Clutch Cargo wrote:


Seal Team 6


Hmm. I still don't see a clear motivation for the U.S. There is indirect motivation, but I don't see a strong risk-reward equation. The U.S. is already "winning" the battle for strong EU commitment against Russia. I don't see a clear motivation for sabotaging U.S. partners and strong allies in order to "help them" stay committed.

My theory is internal Gazprom conflict, amounting to internal Russian conflict.

So far in 2022, we've had several suspicious fatalities at Gazprom including the "Director of Transport." I put it at roughly a half dozen high level people with ties to Gazprom. Could be oligarch backlash, "You want to fuck with us? Fine."

Also I'd assume that the larger Gazprom sphere of support and maintenance contractors have the technical chops to pull off sabotage of their own pipeline.

This self-sabotage logic is probematic. But *every* rationale is problematic.

It could also be an external Gazprom conflict.

Gazprom is contractually obligated to deliver a specific amount of gas or they will have to pay large penalties. It is clear that Putin wants to shut off the flow and make Europe suffer all winter. Sabotaging it lets Putin cut off the flow of gas without Gazprom being in financial trouble.
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Re: Nord Stream Sabotage [Nutella] [ In reply to ]
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Nutella wrote:
HiKai wrote:

The US did this !


Your entire post is nonsensical Russian propaganda.

Seems like just the sort of thing Russia tries to achieve with their propaganda efforts.
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Re: Nord Stream Sabotage [ThisIsIt] [ In reply to ]
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ThisIsIt wrote:
Nutella wrote:
HiKai wrote:

The US did this !


Your entire post is nonsensical Russian propaganda.


Seems like just the sort of thing Russia tries to achieve with their propaganda efforts.

Fortunately, we have Tucker Carlson to declare that the US did this, and then to offer potential retaliation options for Russia.

Slowguy

(insert pithy phrase here...)
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Re: Nord Stream Sabotage [Nutella] [ In reply to ]
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Nutella wrote:
HiKai wrote:

The US did this !


Your entire post is nonsensical Russian propaganda.


We have a winner! Bottom line, Russia is losing and is desperate. They completely misjudged EU/US resolve in accepting the costs for supporting Ukraine. This is a threat, pure and simple, that Putin is willing to escalate the conflict, no matter the cost. There is no incentive at all for the US to sow chaos and attack the assets of allies, when Ukraine is at a huge advantage, buoyed by US support. CIA warned allies in June that they had intel about a possible attack. Thuggish sabotage is right in Russia's wheel house.
Last edited by: oldandslow: Sep 30, 22 13:53
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Re: Nord Stream Sabotage [slowguy] [ In reply to ]
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slowguy wrote:
ThisIsIt wrote:
Nutella wrote:
HiKai wrote:

The US did this !


Your entire post is nonsensical Russian propaganda.


Seems like just the sort of thing Russia tries to achieve with their propaganda efforts.


Fortunately, we have Tucker Carlson to declare that the US did this, and then to offer potential retaliation options for Russia.

I've never actually seen the guy other than what has been posted here but I had figured that most of that type of rhetoric had dried up given that even the Russian trolls let alone the American useful idiots don't seem to pop up nearly as often in the comments section of news articles or Youtube or on Facebook.
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Re: Nord Stream Sabotage [oldandslow] [ In reply to ]
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Yeah, that seems the most likely interpretation.

The leaks smell of desperation. And one party appears to be the most desperate.
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Re: Nord Stream Sabotage [trail] [ In reply to ]
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Dollars to doughnuts this was Russia. It’s got Russian fingerprints all over it: sabotage the pipeline to show that Europe’s resistance has consequences, whilst at the same time saying “no, no, zees voz not uz - vee are not krayzee schtupid!”

It’s when they say they aren’t crazy stupid enough to do this that you know for sure that it was them.

Russia is now engaged in a military war in Ukraine and an economic war in Europe. It’s just that no one wants to say the second but out loud.
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Re: Nordstream Sabotage [Nutella] [ In reply to ]
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General reply, for those who are interested in a report on European gas usage and plans for diversification (this report was pre sabotage)

https://www.gisreportsonline.com/r/german-gas-policy/

Maurice
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Re: Nord Stream Sabotage [Greg66] [ In reply to ]
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Greg66 wrote:
Russia is now engaged in a military war in Ukraine and an economic war in Europe. It’s just that no one wants to say the second but out loud.

I thought that was largely the purpose of the sanctions? Secondarily denies them the high tech hardware for military equipment.

It's kind of crazy, given that Russia has an economy not much larger than that of Spain, and less than that of Italy, France, Canada, Germany, UK, and of course the US.

Unless Ukraine morale fails, which seems very unlikely, Russia's only hope really is to hold out long enough that someone like Trump gets elected and screws up the resolve of the western powers.

Just like WWII was all but over once the US entered, this is all but over as long as the western economies deliver the goods to Ukraine.
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Re: Nordstream Sabotage [g_lev] [ In reply to ]
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g_lev wrote:
ThisIsIt wrote:
Constantine wrote:
ThisIsIt wrote:
Constantine wrote:
Sabotage ? I’ll go with shitty craftsmanship.


Apparently explosions were detected.


It’s definitely a curious situation, the thing about sabotage is the depth of the pipe,
On average 200’ deep that’s special diving.
It’s not a continuous pipe there are connecting sections.


I heard a guy speculate the Russians could have sent something down the pipe to explode!


That pipe, although shut down, was full of pressurized gas. I can't imagine it would be that easy to insert some kind of device into a pressurized pipe in such a way that it could crawl a few hundred miles then explode.

Pipelines both gas and oil send PIGs (pipleline inspection gauge) through pipelines. They inspect the pipeline and can clean out sludge, I don't think they should explode, but it would not be hard to rig one to explode.

I read they normally pig the Nord stream pipeline once a year. The pipeline was down for maintenance so it seem like a good time to use a pig. At this point I do not think they have determined an internal or external explosion.
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Re: Nord Stream Sabotage [MOP_Mike] [ In reply to ]
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Crazy thing is that it really could have been any of them.! Personally, my finger is pointing towards the US. Russia is certainly mad enough to do it, but I think the US possibly has more to gain?

Like most current issues, there is a HUGE amount of propaganda coming out all both sides. None of us can really say what is true or false. We just have to accept that the vast majority of it is BS.
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Re: Nord Stream Sabotage [Hiphophopper] [ In reply to ]
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Hiphophopper wrote:
but I think the US possibly has more to gain? .

More to lose, though. If it ever came out that the U.S. was sabotaging infrastructure that serves strong European allies, it'd risk the unified support it has in supporting Ukraine. Also high risk because a direct U.S. strike on Russia assets is a clear escalation. And I don't see a need for high risk activities given things are seemingly going well for the U.S.

Don't see milquetoast Biden signing off on high visibility sabotage.

Could be wrong, though.
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Re: Nord Stream Sabotage [trail] [ In reply to ]
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trail wrote:
...Don't see milquetoast Biden signing off on high visibility sabotage...

Shirley you've been following Eric's "Dark Brandon" thread. :-)


"100% of the people who confuse correlation and causation end up dying."
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Re: Nord Stream Sabotage [Hiphophopper] [ In reply to ]
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Hiphophopper wrote:
Crazy thing is that it really could have been any of them.! Personally, my finger is pointing towards the US. Russia is certainly mad enough to do it, but I think the US possibly has more to gain?

Like most current issues, there is a HUGE amount of propaganda coming out all both sides. None of us can really say what is true or false. We just have to accept that the vast majority of it is BS.

Eyeroll emoji
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Re: Nord Stream Sabotage [Hiphophopper] [ In reply to ]
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Hiphophopper wrote:
but I think the US possibly has more to gain?

Name one thing the US has to gain.
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Re: Nord Stream Sabotage [Hiphophopper] [ In reply to ]
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Hiphophopper wrote:
Crazy thing is that it really could have been any of them.! Personally, my finger is pointing towards the US. Russia is certainly mad enough to do it, but I think the US possibly has more to gain?

Like most current issues, there is a HUGE amount of propaganda coming out all both sides. None of us can really say what is true or false. We just have to accept that the vast majority of it is BS.

What propaganda? Seems like almost everything I’ve read has been pretty measured, basically saying we don’t know who did it at this point but it was probably the Russians.
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Re: Nord Stream Sabotage [slowguy] [ In reply to ]
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slowguy wrote:
ThisIsIt wrote:
Nutella wrote:
HiKai wrote:

The US did this !


Your entire post is nonsensical Russian propaganda.


Seems like just the sort of thing Russia tries to achieve with their propaganda efforts.


Fortunately, we have Tucker Carlson to declare that the US did this, and then to offer potential retaliation options for Russia.


I am not sure whether that was prescience on your part, but yep.

https://www.foxnews.com/...-war-means-end-world

I take it you know who Lord Haw-Haw was. Well, the US has its very own domestically resident Lord Haw-Haw in the shape of Tucker.
Last edited by: Greg66: Oct 4, 22 8:27
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Re: Nord Stream Sabotage [Greg66] [ In reply to ]
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Greg66 wrote:
slowguy wrote:
ThisIsIt wrote:
Nutella wrote:
HiKai wrote:

The US did this !


Your entire post is nonsensical Russian propaganda.


Seems like just the sort of thing Russia tries to achieve with their propaganda efforts.


Fortunately, we have Tucker Carlson to declare that the US did this, and then to offer potential retaliation options for Russia.


I am not sure whether that was prescience on your part, but yep.

https://www.foxnews.com/...-war-means-end-world

I take it you know who Lard Haw-Haw was. Well, the US has its very own domestically resident Lord Haw-Haw in the shape of Tucker.

Someone should move into a few rooms in Tucker's house and threaten to blow the whole thing up if they try to force him to leave. I'm sure Tucker would acquiesce and let them just have those rooms.
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Re: Nord Stream Sabotage [ThisIsIt] [ In reply to ]
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I'm not directly referring to the pipeline issue, more to the conflict as a whole. Media coverage is in no way neutral so cannot be considered totally reliable.

We currently have a Ukrainian refugee and her son living with the couple next door to us and over the look at few months they've almost become part of the family...but they has also told me a lot about the darker side of Ukraine.

Don't get me wrong Putin is a nut job and needs to be defeated ASAP, but please don't for one minute think that Ukraine is a perfect place, full of nice euro type people...it really isn't.

Or that we in 'the west' are completely blameless. NATO has been using Ukraine as a base for 'excersises' which is nothing short of poking that big russian bear with a stick.
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Re: Nord Stream Sabotage [Hiphophopper] [ In reply to ]
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Hiphophopper wrote:
I'm not directly referring to the pipeline issue, more to the conflict as a whole. Media coverage is in no way neutral so cannot be considered totally reliable.

We currently have a Ukrainian refugee and her son living with the couple next door to us and over the look at few months they've almost become part of the family...but they has also told me a lot about the darker side of Ukraine.

Don't get me wrong Putin is a nut job and needs to be defeated ASAP, but please don't for one minute think that Ukraine is a perfect place, full of nice euro type people...it really isn't.

Or that we in 'the west' are completely blameless. NATO has been using Ukraine as a base for 'excersises' which is nothing short of poking that big russian bear with a stick.


I don't have any such illusions. Pretty much everyone describes Ukraine as a fledgling, flawed democracy, rife with corruption. And people are people, there will be good and awful people everywhere which is why you need institutions and institutional norms to controls things. I think it's fair to say Ukraine is miles of head of Russian in those regards, Russia in fact seems to hardly care about such things.

As for the last point, Russia can fuck off, they don't get to tell other nations how to conduct their affairs. NATO hasn't imposed itself on any country, the expansion of NATO has occurred because of countries requesting entry, mostly for protection from Russia (e.g. Finland, Sweden, and now most recently Ukraine).

The US would be just as unjust in invading Mexico or Cuba if those countries were sidling up to Russia or China and allowing them to conduct military operations there.

As far as media bias goes, yes it's obviously there, so use those critical thinking skills people should have learned in school. The media most people consume is just sound bites with no depth anyway, but the depth is there for anyone who cares to look for it.
Last edited by: ThisIsIt: Oct 4, 22 3:44
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Re: Nord Stream Sabotage [Hiphophopper] [ In reply to ]
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Wow. So much to unpack here.

Hiphophopper wrote:
I'm not directly referring to the pipeline issue, more to the conflict as a whole. Media coverage is in no way neutral so cannot be considered totally reliable.

Care to elaborate how/where media coverage is not neutral? The coverage I see seems to be pretty much fact-based reporting and representation of different opinions about which path forward is warranted. If you refer to the fact that few media reports paint the Russian side as the good guys: well, that wouldn't really be truthful, would it?

Hiphophopper wrote:
We currently have a Ukrainian refugee and her son living with the couple next door to us and over the look at few months they've almost become part of the family...but they has also told me a lot about the darker side of Ukraine.

Don't get me wrong Putin is a nut job and needs to be defeated ASAP, but please don't for one minute think that Ukraine is a perfect place, full of nice euro type people...it really isn't.

Shocker: there are some not-so-nice people in Ukraine! Who has ever claimed otherwise? What exactly does that have to do with the situation at hand?

Hiphophopper wrote:
Or that we in 'the west' are completely blameless. NATO has been using Ukraine as a base for 'excersises' which is nothing short of poking that big russian bear with a stick.

Excuse my french, but this part is utter bullshit. Putin and his cronies have staged an illegal landgrab in 2014 (after having sworn to eternally respect the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine). Following that, Ukraine turned to NATO countries (not NATO itself) with requests for help in training of their defence forces because they feared further hostilities from Russia (fully justified, as it turns out). Ukrainian NATO membership or permanent presence of NATO troops in Ukraine were never realistically on the table before the invasion, and the recent events have made it very clear that it really never was about NATO to begin with.
Also, I completely reject the notion that Russia is in any way shape or form entitled to some form of "influence sphere" outside their own internationally recognized borders. Don't like the fact that your neighbors look elsewhere for cooperation (and inspiration)? Become a better neighbor!
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Re: Nord Stream Sabotage [malte] [ In reply to ]
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malte wrote:
Wow. So much to unpack here.

Hiphophopper wrote:
I'm not directly referring to the pipeline issue, more to the conflict as a whole. Media coverage is in no way neutral so cannot be considered totally reliable.


Care to elaborate how/where media coverage is not neutral? The coverage I see seems to be pretty much fact-based reporting and representation of different opinions about which path forward is warranted. If you refer to the fact that few media reports paint the Russian side as the good guys: well, that wouldn't really be truthful, would it?

Hiphophopper wrote:
We currently have a Ukrainian refugee and her son living with the couple next door to us and over the look at few months they've almost become part of the family...but they has also told me a lot about the darker side of Ukraine.

Don't get me wrong Putin is a nut job and needs to be defeated ASAP, but please don't for one minute think that Ukraine is a perfect place, full of nice euro type people...it really isn't.


Shocker: there are some not-so-nice people in Ukraine! Who has ever claimed otherwise? What exactly does that have to do with the situation at hand?

Hiphophopper wrote:
Or that we in 'the west' are completely blameless. NATO has been using Ukraine as a base for 'excersises' which is nothing short of poking that big russian bear with a stick.


Excuse my french, but this part is utter bullshit. Putin and his cronies have staged an illegal landgrab in 2014 (after having sworn to eternally respect the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine). Following that, Ukraine turned to NATO countries (not NATO itself) with requests for help in training of their defence forces because they feared further hostilities from Russia (fully justified, as it turns out). Ukrainian NATO membership or permanent presence of NATO troops in Ukraine were never realistically on the table before the invasion, and the recent events have made it very clear that it really never was about NATO to begin with.
Also, I completely reject the notion that Russia is in any way shape or form entitled to some form of "influence sphere" outside their own internationally recognized borders. Don't like the fact that your neighbors look elsewhere for cooperation (and inspiration)? Become a better neighbor!

I mean he's not entirely wrong, NATO did provoke Russia by allowing countries to join for their own self-defense which basically took them off the table as far as countries Russia could try to reconquer. So I mean, the Russians just had to go for the ones that were still out there that could be invaded. Perfectly justifiable.
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Re: Nord Stream Sabotage [MOP_Mike] [ In reply to ]
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Some insights on Whodunnit.




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Re: Nord Stream Sabotage [ThisIsIt] [ In reply to ]
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Interesting. Thanks. I agree that Russia is the most likely suspect -- I think it's a desperate scorched-earth move, with an implied threat to other undersea assets, that also casts aspersions on the US.

I don't think the US did this at all. But, I'm not sure I agree with the guy's reasoning that if the US did it, they wouldn't do it between the detection and attribution levels as was done.

I think that's only true if the US *looks like* they may be behind it, weakening resolve in Europe. Otherwise, sabotage between those levels serves the US interest in forcing Europe's hand by taking Russian gas off the table. That wouldn't necessarily be true *if* the US had done this below the detection threshold.

His point about a losing, desperate actor being much more willing to undertake such a risky operation is well taken, too.

I also agree that other non-Russian undersea assets may soon become targets (which points convincingly at Russia rather than any other actor).


"100% of the people who confuse correlation and causation end up dying."
Last edited by: MOP_Mike: Oct 4, 22 18:20
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