Personal experience tells me that riding in a paceline puts me in the "snotstream" of the riders in front of me. Everyone who has ridden in a group has emerged from rides with someone else's snot on them at some point.
If you don't think this is a problem, give your buddy a spray bottle filled with beet juice, and set it to the mist setting. Now ride behind them while they spray small amounts from that bottle directly in front of them every second or so. I promise you that you will find beet juice all over your face, your bike, and your clothes. Now imagine being in a group of 20-50 guys, all with spray bottles for multiple hours at a time. Then remember that beet juice doesn't have the potential to kill you, permanently damage your hearts lungs or brain, and isn't contagious.

My protocol is ride mostly solo. I have gone out with small groups for short rides occasionally. I've joined in (not planned prior) with some groups while out riding solo. Stay physically far apart and mask on at any gathering after the ride.

Basically, I acknowledge that this is non-zero risk. I think that taking those risks occasionally is permissible. I'm not in a hot Covid zone right now. If Minnesota's infection rate heats up, I'll have to stop entirely.

I agree that if we want to do the absolute utmost for society, we should all go full hermit. However, that isn't sustainable for most people.

I'm not looking forward to winter, though. That's when it's too cold for most people to comfortably ride outside, and I'm in this camp. I'll hike, walk, and run as much as I can. I'll get an indoor trainer and hop on Zwift. I think I'll want to go to the gym occasionally, and the campus gym is making everyone wear masks while exercising. I'll have to see how many people there are to judge if this is a risk worth taking.

Interesting article about tandem cycling in times of Covid, just released. Basically, the Dr. says wear a mask, ride with a captain you know, and enjoy the ride.

https://www.theatlantic.com/...ycling-covid/616537/

I happen to live in an area that had higher positivity and now has lower positivity test rates. Some people never stoped riding in groups and now most who rode in groups pre Covid, are back riding in some type of group now. Some larger and some smaller. Almost all of thise that were staunchly anti group are back in small groups. If you have pre existing conditions, of course you should reflect on that risk. Our community, for what it’s worth, doesn’t know any cyclists that have caught Covid from another cyclist on a ride. The few riders in our community that have gotten Covid, feel they know exactly where they got it... some on vacation earlier in the year, and others from family members that visited, and were found to be positive before they were positive.

I, along, with many other riders were discussing we have ridden with others who had the flu or common cold over the years, and none of us could recall getting sick from those other riders who were still sick, but wanted to ride. The CDC says getting Covid outside versus inside is 1/20th of the risk. Throw in fast moving air, the numbers drop more. How much, who knows, but the risk of getting Covid appears to be so much higher in most other activities.

Covid will likely be with us for many years, in some capacity, so I guess everyone will eventually have to decide what risks they are willing to take... and of course, driving to a group ride or race, will probably continue to be more deadly than anything caught on a group ride.

n=1, but I was a pretty good guinea pig recently in a "can you catch covid while cycling" test. About a month ago I went on a 4.5 hour ride with a buddy...just the two of us. We spent the first ~3 hours taking turns pulling but the last hour and a half I started to hurt and spent the entire time on his wheel and directly in his "snotstream".

The next day his wife wakes up not feeling well so she gets a rapid covid test which comes back positive. This causes him to get tested, also positive. I rode almost 5 hours alone with someone who was asymptomatic but covid positive (he did end up developing symptoms, they're both fully recovered now).

After 2 weeks of quarantine and 2 negative tests...I never caught the virus. Like I said, n=1 but let's just say I'm 1000% comfortable riding outdoors in groups with others now.

Firstly in 40+ years of riding I have never had the snot of another rider land on me. Maybe I was lucky that the riders I hve been around my entire life spread over 20 different countries have more courtesy.

Secondly, someone's snot laning on my tights or jacket, or helmet of glasses or cheeks won't give me Covid19 even if this new snot stream theory of snot transmitting Covid19 in a paceline has any validity.

I was curious after reading all these posts (yeah I'm that bored).
So I hope you don't mind if I ask, without prejudice, a few questions to satisfy my own morbid curiosity about exposure to this virus.

When you ride do you wear standard normal sunglasses, cycling glasses, wrap around frames or a visor, do you cycle face up or down, and do you breath, predominantly, through your mouth or nose. Do you wear cycling gloves and were you riding a road bike, on or off the hoods or Tri bike. And how relaxed is your position.

All of these are factors, I would assume, on whether someone is fully exposed to the virus.
Lastly when you were following, how close were you on their wheel.
Are they heavy sweaters.

Was the weather calm, sunny, windy, low or high temps and what sort of speed were you riding at.

I don't actually group ride, ever, but I do (or have) ridden with a partner/coach.
And I was curious about what things may reduce the risk factors and if anyone had thought through that process.

As you say n=1, you are confident that your experience following a single, infectious, rider makes you confident in a group.
Although I must admit I'm not sure why, but I would wonder how large the group could be and how many in the group can be infectious before you lose that confidence (assuming you know in advance). Fortunately cycling weather comes to an end (for the weak knee'd like me) very soon in this neck of the woods so this is purely rhetorical as I have no races and no overwhelming need to stop eating cookies for some time to come.....:0)

Cycling sunglasses (Roka SR-1x)
I was wearing gloves with cut off fingers
We were on road bikes, switching between hoods and drops depending on the pace
We were pushing pretty hard at times, I was definitely huffing and puffing, breathing mostly through my mouth.
Position is relatively aggressive on the road bike, I've got like half a spacer on the stem.
Was right on his wheel, like I mentioned we rode hard and I was feeling it, I was definitely wheel sucking to not get dropped.
Weather was warm (mid 70s to low 80s), humid and cloudy, probably 10-15 mph winds
We averaged 20-21 mph

I'd say I'm confident as long as nobody spits or blows their nose on me, otherwise I don't see how it could get much worse than what I was exposed to.

In Minnesota I have been riding with a group of 20-30 riders once a week. They have been riding since June but I have joined for the past 6 weeks. The ride is 50-60 miles long lasting around three hours. The temp ranges from 40 to 70 degrees and typically has been around 60. The wind conditions have been all across the board. We ride in a paceline and sometimes two across when the road permits. We make a bathroom stop at the halfway mark and everyone loosely gathers together to chat or take in some nutrition. Nobody wears masks except for after the ride for those heading into the coffee shop. I know of zero incidences of a cyclist contracting COVID.

I also lead an indoor cycle class once a week and have been doing so since mid-August. Participation has been low (4-6 members) so easy to keep a safe distance. I am anticipating for things to pick up as the weather cools down. Masks are required in the building but not while on the bike. The attention to safety and cleanliness has been stellar. Again, no incidences of members getting sick at my location or any others in my area.

We have a simple rule.... if you have to expectorate, leave the paceline. But really this was expected before C-19.

Thanks for sharing your story. Have you ever tested for Covid antibodies? Curious to see if you ruled out being positive previously, but unknown to you and asymptomatic. Thanks.

That's a good point, I have not had an antibody test so there is some possibility that I previously had it and never knew. I don't currently have any plans to get an antibody test but will update the thread if I do.

I'm not saying you didn't previously have covid but 99% of my friends and co-workers believe they had it until they've gotten an antibody test and it shows they didn't. Obviously, that's a small sample size but I constantly hear people say they think they had covid. If you want a free covid antibody test just donate blood with the red cross. That's what I did. I didn't think I'd ever contracted covid but I figured it wouldn't hurt to give blood and get the free antibody test

There's a very big difference between "can you catch covid while cycling" and "did you catch covid while cycling".
You only know that you didn't. This is not science.
Far too many people have zero idea how to design a test or draw a conclusion, but are going around drawing false conclusions left, right, and centre. The US president included.
Your anecdote is just that. Without context, and repetition (considerable repetition under controlled similar/varying circumstances) and statistical analysis of same, you have no conclusion worth sharing and your "1000%" comfort is baseless.

Ok dude, just sharing my story that was fully caveated with “n=1”

People are free to make their own conclusions. As a result of both my experience as well as guidelines suggesting that the virus is far more difficult to contract outdoors I’m comfortable with riding outdoors with others. This obviously isn’t a scientific study and was never framed as one...just an anecdote.

Riders assembling for the start at the Tour de Clermont (Florida) this past weekend (3 Oct 2020). I wore a mask to packet pick-up and maybe until about 5 mins before the start. Other than that, it was just your standard organized ride with course markings and SAG stops. The pack quickly broke apart within 5 miles of the start and I rode most of the way with 3 friends. The volunteers at SAG stops had masks and gloves and handed riders individual water bottles instead of people refilling from the typical 10 gallon Igloo coolers.

are you aware of the difference between being "subjective" and "objective?"

Why yes.

Are you aware that probability of virus transmission is not subjective?