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Re: Does the Tour De France Make it to Paris ? [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]
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Will be surprised if there are no positive test results in the peloton. Dream scenario will be the same results as last week. Although, I did read that teams have been conducting their own tests so they are not caught off guard. Hopefully, all remaining riders get to Paris.
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Re: Does the Tour De France Make it to Paris ? [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]
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Agree on the 99/100 odds. Hidden in France's death rolling average is a mega-spike to 80 deaths reported on 9/11. In the days preceding, their numbers were consistent with prior weeks.

That took the 7-day average from 18 to 30 immediately. It was Friday, and France generally reports light on Saturdays and Sundays, so we will not know for a few days if the 80 spike was an outlier or the new trend for them. But, by that time, the racers will be closing on the finish line.

France seems like it should be due for an increase in daily deaths, given the rise in cases since July. So, it is actually a big shocking that it hasn't occurred yet.
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Re: Does the Tour De France Make it to Paris ? [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]
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devashish_paul wrote:
Rest day number 2. Everyone gets tested, counter reset to zero.

What are the odds on the Tour getting to Paris. I would say 99/100 it gets there.

Worldometer says that 7 day moving average for cases has gone up from 5000 per day to around 8000 per day and 7 day moving average for death from 10 to 30 or so, the latter nearly doubling in the last few days.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/france/


Worst case a few teams get tossed. With the number of abandons already, its not the end of the world, but if it blows apart the GC (ex: UAE or Jumbo being tossed) that's going to suck.

Just spoke to a friend that is in the bubble. Their belief is if they make it through today, they make it to Paris.
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Re: Does the Tour De France Make it to Paris ? [marcag] [ In reply to ]
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marcag wrote:


Just spoke to a friend that is in the bubble. Their belief is if they make it through today, they make it to Paris.

That's pretty much a given because they only test on rest days. So that only leaves self-reported illness over the last week.
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Re: Does the Tour De France Make it to Paris ? [Nerd] [ In reply to ]
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Nerd wrote:
Will be surprised if there are no positive test results in the peloton. Dream scenario will be the same results as last week. Although, I did read that teams have been conducting their own tests so they are not caught off guard. Hopefully, all remaining riders get to Paris.

If I am on a team, I am testing my riders daily and if anyone has it, they suddenly have an injury and quit the tdf and go home or staff have to go home for an "emergency". So by the time testing is done today, its all good to go.
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Re: Does the Tour De France Make it to Paris ? [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]
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devashish_paul wrote:
Rest day number 2. Everyone gets tested, counter reset to zero.

What are the odds on the Tour getting to Paris. I would say 99/100 it gets there.

Worldometer says that 7 day moving average for cases has gone up from 5000 per day to around 8000 per day and 7 day moving average for death from 10 to 30 or so, the latter nearly doubling in the last few days.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/france/


Worst case a few teams get tossed. With the number of abandons already, its not the end of the world, but if it blows apart the GC (ex: UAE or Jumbo being tossed) that's going to suck.

If Jumbo or UAE are on the verge of testing out, ASO will likely re-test anyone with a positive enough times to turn up a negative result to keep them in the race. They don't want an asterisk'ed Tour winner.
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Re: Does the Tour De France Make it to Paris ? [trail] [ In reply to ]
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trail wrote:
they only test on rest days.

Apparently they are testing more than that and not just teams testing internally
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Re: Does the Tour De France Make it to Paris ? [ctflower] [ In reply to ]
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ctflower wrote:
If Jumbo or UAE are on the verge of testing out, ASO will likely re-test anyone with a positive enough times to turn up a negative result to keep them in the race. They don't want an asterisk'ed Tour winner.

I suspect that any rider that tested positive twice would want to pull out of the race even if being pressured to stay in. I'd also hope that any team doctor would squash that move. Even with mild symptoms, there's a high probability they'd not be able to finish within the limits, especially for more than a single stage. Fatigue is prevalent with covid.
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Re: Does the Tour De France Make it to Paris ? [Nerd] [ In reply to ]
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Nerd wrote:
Will be surprised if there are no positive test results in the peloton. Dream scenario will be the same results as last week. Although, I did read that teams have been conducting their own tests so they are not caught off guard. Hopefully, all remaining riders get to Paris.

If teams are self testing are they required to report positive results?

Let food be thy medicine...
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Re: Does the Tour De France Make it to Paris ? [JackStraw13] [ In reply to ]
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On a plus note since Christian Prudhomme tested asymptomatic positive and he was in a car with the French prime minister, magically in France the period for quarantine for asymptomatic positive shrunk to 7 days given that most of the transmission happens in the first 5 or so days and 14 days is overly conservative resulting in people just not following the quarantine....there is some common sense to this when enacted in law since laws have to take into account how people comply (or not...whichsadly has nothing to do with science).

But French govt is roughly saying that they are trying to figure out how society can move ahead in the context of this thing, not totally avoid it. This bodes well for completion of the TdF and who knows if it is good or not for public health. I guess we will find out in 2 weeks, 4 weeks and 6 weeks if French hospitals are overwhelmed and there is a new wave of deaths in France due to the TdF happening.
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Re: Does the Tour De France Make it to Paris ? [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]
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785 COVID tests yesterday at the Tour de France. Zero (0) positives. On to Paris.

clm
Nashville, TN
https://twitter.com/ironclm | http://ironclm.typepad.com
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Re: Does the Tour De France Make it to Paris ? [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]
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devashish_paul wrote:
....there is some common sense to this when enacted in law since laws have to take into account how people comply.

Not really, it goes the other way around...most people act based on laws, How Well they’re enforced and Possible punishment.
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Re: Does the Tour De France Make it to Paris ? [brasch] [ In reply to ]
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In any case zero positive during testing yesterday, so TdF heading to Paris (YAY):

https://www.cyclingnews.com/news/no-covid-19-positive-tests-emerge-during-tour-de-france-second-rest-day/


and this bodes well for Worlds and Giro in Italy as their numbers are low compared to France
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Re: Does the Tour De France Make it to Paris ? [brasch] [ In reply to ]
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brasch wrote:
devashish_paul wrote:
....there is some common sense to this when enacted in law since laws have to take into account how people comply.


Not really, it goes the other way around...most people act based on laws, How Well they’re enforced and Possible punishment.

Chris Cuomo disagrees with you.
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Re: Does the Tour De France Make it to Paris ? [ironclm] [ In reply to ]
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ironclm wrote:
785 COVID tests yesterday at the Tour de France. Zero (0) positives. On to Paris.

Cathy, I literally cried when I saw this year's version of this picture happen as the Tour de France rolled into Paris




In a year which for almost all of us has sucked pretty badly, for one fine moment, it felt "almost normal". I've followed every pothole in this race since 1984....it did not dissappoint....now back to reality of life, business, family navigating through the Covid19 worlds of 2020.

On a plus note, we have the UCI World's and Giro on deck followed by Vuelta and the rest of the monuments. With the rider rider bubble making it thorugh 2 months I am optimistic we will get the rest of the cycling season
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Re: Does the Tour De France Make it to Paris ? [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]
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I've said to others that I didn't think the Tour would make it to Paris. I'm glad to be wrong - but I don't think we currently know how many spectators got infected, and that's an issue.

I'm still thinking that given conditions in Spain and Italy, it's risky to let the Vuelta and the men's Giro go ahead. If both those countries are stricter about crowds than France was, then it could be acceptable. The thing is, I'm not sure I see that happening.
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Re: Does the Tour De France Make it to Paris ? [weiwentg] [ In reply to ]
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weiwentg wrote:
I've said to others that I didn't think the Tour would make it to Paris. I'm glad to be wrong - but I don't think we currently know how many spectators got infected, and that's an issue.

I'm still thinking that given conditions in Spain and Italy, it's risky to let the Vuelta and the men's Giro go ahead. If both those countries are stricter about crowds than France was, then it could be acceptable. The thing is, I'm not sure I see that happening.

I don't think we will ever know how many people in crowds got infected because of the Tour de France. What we do know is that in Italy during Strade Bianche and Milano San Remo, there was literally no one on the sides of the roads where otherwise it would be 5 spectators deep. So minimally Italy already had better crowd control in some of its biggest races and we roughly saw the same subsequently during Tirenno Adriatico (well at least on the flobikes.com coverage). I think Italians having really gone through the disaster in March and April particularly around Bergamo, are much more cautious publicly on how they revert back to old normal but that may just be an illusion too. Let's see. Before the Giro, the Italians are putting on the UCI worlds at the Imola Formula 1"Enzo and Dino Ferrari" track complex, so we'll see. Thankfully in Italy daily deaths since early July have been single digits to teens.
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Re: Does the Tour De France Make it to Paris ? [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]
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devashish_paul wrote:
weiwentg wrote:
I've said to others that I didn't think the Tour would make it to Paris. I'm glad to be wrong - but I don't think we currently know how many spectators got infected, and that's an issue.

I'm still thinking that given conditions in Spain and Italy, it's risky to let the Vuelta and the men's Giro go ahead. If both those countries are stricter about crowds than France was, then it could be acceptable. The thing is, I'm not sure I see that happening.


I don't think we will ever know how many people in crowds got infected because of the Tour de France. What we do know is that in Italy during Strade Bianche and Milano San Remo, there was literally no one on the sides of the roads where otherwise it would be 5 spectators deep. So minimally Italy already had better crowd control in some of its biggest races and we roughly saw the same subsequently during Tirenno Adriatico (well at least on the flobikes.com coverage). I think Italians having really gone through the disaster in March and April particularly around Bergamo, are much more cautious publicly on how they revert back to old normal but that may just be an illusion too. Let's see. Before the Giro, the Italians are putting on the UCI worlds at the Imola Formula 1"Enzo and Dino Ferrari" track complex, so we'll see. Thankfully in Italy daily deaths since early July have been single digits to teens.

I sure hope you're right. I'm trying to remember where I heard that Italy and Spain were experiencing a resurgence. It's actually that Spain is really bad, and Italy seems to not be so bad right now in terms of incident cases. Hopefully it stays that way during the Giro.

I maintain that looking at things right now, I'm worried for the Vuelta. I hope I'm wrong.
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