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Who’s the next dominating TdF winner?
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Which rider Will dominate the tour this decade?
Previously we’ve had Anquetil, merckx, hinault, indurain, Armstrong and Froome.
Usually there are a couple of years between the “dominators” and usually they start at the beginning of a decade. Froome, Armstrong and indurain were 27 at the time of their first win, merckx and hinault were 24, But hinault 27 at his 2nd win Anquetil was 23, But 27 at his 2nd win, so stats basically say “27” is where it starts.
Bernal is the obvious one, But the same was said for Ullrich and both were Young when they won their first (and for Ullrich, only) tour.
So, who’s turning 27 in 2021 or 2022 and dominates the decade?
I really want to say Wout Van aert, But I doubt it.
And in this context, riders like LeMond and Contador are “intermediate” winner
Last edited by: brasch: Sep 8, 20 13:54
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Re: Who’s the next dominating TdF winner? [brasch] [ In reply to ]
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I hate to say it, but outside of this year maybe, it's whoever among all the young talent goes to Ineos. Once all the promising guys like Pogacar, Evenepoel, Martin, Higuita, Martinez, et al, complete their contracts their current teams likely won't be able to match the Ineos offer. And Ineos will have the best team to put around them.
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Re: Who’s the next dominating TdF winner? [trail] [ In reply to ]
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trail wrote:
I hate to say it, but outside of this year maybe, it's whoever among all the young talent goes to Ineos. Once all the promising guys like Pogacar, Evenepoel, Martin, Higuita, Martinez, et al, complete their contracts their current teams likely won't be able to match the Ineos offer. And Ineos will have the best team to put around them.

I think I'd disagree with this. They won't be able to snatch up 4 or 5 GT contenders, maybe 2 or 3, but someone will always be on a different team that could compete. And at some point another team will build to have 2-3 strong contenders to compete against Ineos. Just like Jumbo-Visma is this year.

I would love to see Pogacar stay on a different team from Bernal. That could be the decade long battle.
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Re: Who’s the next dominating TdF winner? [trail] [ In reply to ]
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trail wrote:
I hate to say it, but outside of this year maybe, it's whoever among all the young talent goes to Ineos. Once all the promising guys like Pogacar, Evenepoel, Martin, Higuita, Martinez, et al, complete their contracts their current teams likely won't be able to match the Ineos offer. And Ineos will have the best team to put around them.

If the answer to this question is Bernal, then maybe Ineos can let these riders go to other teams. I think the answer to this question is Bernal myself. If he is as banged up as they say he is and riding the way he is, then they have their man for the long term.
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Re: Who’s the next dominating TdF winner? [trail] [ In reply to ]
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If Lemond did not have the hunting accident he probably would have been a 5 time TDF winner.
I agree that team strength is the determining factor now and I think Jumbo Visma is maybe the strongest.
If Kruijswijk was there they would be even stronger.
With all the new talent out there it is hard to say there is a dominant rider.
In the old days (Merckx, Hinault) they won everything, all three grand tours, classics, Paris Roubaix.
That just won't ever happen again.
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Re: Who’s the next dominating TdF winner? [DeLuz] [ In reply to ]
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DeLuz wrote:
.
In the old days (Merckx, Hinault) they won everything, all three grand tours, classics, Paris Roubaix.
That just won't ever happen again.


Probably not to that degree. But Evenepoel has looked like that kind of talent at times. He may not win all those in the same year like the old-school guys. But he looks like the kind of talent that could win classics, then go on to a Grand Tour career.

Last year Alaphillipe won Milano-San Remo then came in 5th in the TdF after leading it for most of the way.

Old school is new school again. And it's great. Maybe it won't last, but it's a nice break from the Lance Armstrong pattern of hyper-focusing on 3 weeks.
Last edited by: trail: Sep 8, 20 14:48
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Re: Who’s the next dominating TdF winner? [trail] [ In reply to ]
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Well there was the fat version of Lance that did this in the rain in Oslo (I believe that was in the same year that he finished last at Classica San Sebastian when they were folding up the stands when her arrived at the finish):


Last edited by: devashish_paul: Sep 8, 20 15:47
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Re: Who’s the next dominating TdF winner? [brasch] [ In reply to ]
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Not sure how Pogacar can time trial but at 21 I'm hoping to see Bernal and him go head to head on some HC cols in the coming years. Pogacar would have to be mentioned as potential superstar.
Last edited by: Shambolic: Sep 8, 20 15:57
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Re: Who’s the next dominating TdF winner? [Shambolic] [ In reply to ]
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Shambolic wrote:
Not sure how Pogacar can time trial

Really well.
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Re: Who’s the next dominating TdF winner? [brasch] [ In reply to ]
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This boy Sepp can ride some moutains. 7+watts/kilo for quite awhile. He is an elderly 24 but still new to the road scene. If they keep the current TT limits on grand tours he could be next american to win.
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Re: Who’s the next dominating TdF winner? [trail] [ In reply to ]
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trail wrote:
Shambolic wrote:
Not sure how Pogacar can time trial


Really well.

He beat Roglic at the Slovenian Championships by 8 seconds on a 30 min course:

http://cyclingpub.com/...0under%20the%20rain.
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Re: Who’s the next dominating TdF winner? [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]
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devashish_paul wrote:
trail wrote:
Shambolic wrote:
Not sure how Pogacar can time trial


Really well.


He beat Roglic at the Slovenian Championships by 8 seconds on a 30 min course:

http://cyclingpub.com/...0under%20the%20rain.
Wow that says it all. There's our next dominating TdF winner there...
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Re: Who’s the next dominating TdF winner? [brasch] [ In reply to ]
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Thibault Pinot (just kidding)


Bernal, Pogacar, Hirschi, Evenepoel are this next decade's exciting young riders (for now).
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Re: Who’s the next dominating TdF winner? [Diabolo] [ In reply to ]
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Diabolo wrote:
..... Evenepoel .....

This guy, assuming he can make a full recovery from his crash.
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Re: Who’s the next dominating TdF winner? [SBRcanuck] [ In reply to ]
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Another vote for Evenepoel.

Pogacar is great and obviously can TT, but I wouldn't say Roglic was in top form during that TT. Also, Pogacar smartly did a bike change right before the climb from his TT to road bike. Looking at the data you can see what time he saved. I would still rate Roglic as a better rider. The big difference is Pogacar is younger and has a chance to race more GTs.
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Re: Who’s the next dominating TdF winner? [brasch] [ In reply to ]
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If I had to put money down right now, I would split it between Alaphiliippe (who is currently 28) and Wout Van Aert (25).

I really feel like Van Aert is holding back at the TdF right now. Hopefully this is to gain experience for the years ahead.
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Re: Who’s the next dominating TdF winner? [brasch] [ In reply to ]
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Bernal without any doubt. The fact that he already didn't fall away in the last week of a grand tour at last year's TDF as most youngsters do is insane, let alone win the race and has put him way ahead of his peer group. Look how long it's taken the Yates brothers to be able to perform across a GT, if they're even really doing that now. He only got stronger during the race. In a normal year without Covid he doesn't really have any rivals for GC and he'll only be held back by injuries/ misfortune. He seems to have good enough bike skills though.

Maybe he'll burn out quicker and be done at 30, but I get the impression with him that he's not a moron (this week's haircut aside) and him/ Ineos will manage his condition to give him a long career.

Although he's not a big guy, he's not a tiny climber like Quintana is, so he'll also be able to develop a decent TT as well to remove that vulnerability in GC.

Big mention to Wout van Aert, Mathieu van der Poel and Remco Evenepoel as well though, as they'll pretty much dominate everything else over the next decade.

Roglic will certainly be a factor and may win a couple of GT's plus a few of the week stage races over the next couple of years, but not going to have a huge impact. Roglic at 30 now being in the mix for GT's (the age you would expect, maybe even still relatively young for GC) only highlights just how far ahead Bernal is.

Feel the Speed
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Re: Who’s the next dominating TdF winner? [brasch] [ In reply to ]
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This thread is really showing how little some triathletes know about road cycling. Bernal has to be the obvious answer here, but maybe he is the Contador to Pogacar's Froome.
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