I’m curious about the wild card scenarios. Let’s say he races MT and misses a spot. Would his injury allow him to get an wildcard entry? Seems this would be exactly why you have that type of pathway if it still exists. It’s not as if he’s “faking” his way into not putting the racing load on his body he simply can’t do it yet.

I'm a bit late to this thread but I just watched his latest video on YouTube. Based on his TRUE recovery date starting April 2nd, he's almost 8 weeks into the recovery. His cycling restrictions have been lifted up to 240 watts, so it's not like he's not doing anything, I'm sure he's out there doing long rides at 240 watts which is at least maintaining some good cycling base. I'm confident his cycling power will return quickly once all cycling restrictions are lifted.
I'm not sure he'll be 3 minutes faster in his swim, but if he is only 1 minute faster, than he should be able to make main pack in Kona if he doesn't mess up his periodization like he did last year.
The key to the whole thing will be his running, how quickly will he be able to return to run form. He states twelve weeks for complete recovery before he can start running, which puts him early June. Leaves him a couple of months to prep for IM Tremblant to qualify, and hopefully he doesn't have to sacrifice too much of a taper for that race and can continue his training leading into Kona.

Very interested to see how this year turns out for him. For his sake, I think he needs to do Arizona this fall to secure the qualifying slot for next year, and not have the pressure on himself to get a Kona slot.

Really like Lionel too. Sometimes I think I'm one of those who can't figure out why I'm hurt and doing so poorly, and then he shares this and I'm like "Yes, I can identify". His will to succeed and his average looking skill set has me filled with admiration. He's one of the most compelling stories in IM as he shares with us what he is going through and thinking. This is the kind of training/racing drama that will keep me following him and wishing him the best. He is making best case scenario plans, like we might.

After all of his OA wins and 2nd OA at Kona, how can you say "his average looking skill set"???