In case anyone’s curious, because I was, the cumulative probability of getting the wheels is:
1-{(7/8)^[number of times to peak]}
So only 49% of people will have the wheels after 5 summits. After 10 trips to the top 74% of people will get the wheels. 5% of people who have made 23 trips to the top will still not have won the wheels. 1% of people who have ridden to the top 35 times will be throwing their trainers through the window.
Considering how many people there are on Zwift I’d imagine some people are in for some frustration.
I’ve done 8. Still no wheels but that’s not at all surprising.
(This assumes that Zwift keeps the probabilities the same for the entire series.)
1-{(7/8)^[number of times to peak]}
So only 49% of people will have the wheels after 5 summits. After 10 trips to the top 74% of people will get the wheels. 5% of people who have made 23 trips to the top will still not have won the wheels. 1% of people who have ridden to the top 35 times will be throwing their trainers through the window.
Considering how many people there are on Zwift I’d imagine some people are in for some frustration.
I’ve done 8. Still no wheels but that’s not at all surprising.
(This assumes that Zwift keeps the probabilities the same for the entire series.)