Can you imagine the wailing and gnashing of teeth from the left if after all Trump has been accused of he gets re-elected? So he gets re-elected after the Mueller report, the border wall fight, the declaring of a national emergency, the Kavanaugh nomination, the tweets upon tweets upon tweets and the rise of AOC.

What's next, is wall street gonna tell us the Repubs win back the House?

Without knowing much about the methodology of the survey it's hard to put much weight into that. I work on "Wall St" and have not seen or heard of such consensus. It could be over 50% though. Much will depend on who Trump is running against.

I think betting markets have the dems winning at a slight edge -130 vs +150 for the GOP. This is around the same as Michigan state beating texas tech. (for people who dont follow the betting markets, in October 2016 Hillary had about as good a chance as winning as UVA has as beating Auburn.)

I was thinking about this as well. But it rings true. I am just thinking about next year a lot.

All the odds I've seen have Trump as the favorite. Example.

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It doesn't really matter what Phil is saying, the music of his voice is the appropriate soundtrack for a bicycle race. HTupolev

So what in your laundry list of things do you think would cause a 2016 Trump voter to not be a 2020 Trump voter?

If their life expectancy is greater than 20 years and find truth refreshing.

Being even odds +100 or +110 doesn’t mean u are the favorite.

The casino takes the middle so you have to be at least-105 to be a slight fav. Either way the sports books I use (sports book.ag and bovada) have the same odds for dems winning -150. These sports books had Clinton as a bigger fav before the election. So I am not saying they are always correct (or picking the fav is the way to go). Most likely these odds are going to be heavily skewed by the money.

Just providing more info of Wall Street vs the books.

A non felonious non communist wannabe as the Democratic candidate.

yeah, it appears to me that the majority of the slate of Dem candidates are doing their best to promise free everything to everybody in order to win the nomination, without thinking how that is going to play in the general election. I have stated before and will state again...if it's Amy Klobuchar vs Trump, I'm going to vote for Amy. And, tellingly, my extremely Republican parents (they like to describe people as "good Republicans") feel exactly the same way. If it's Klobuchar vs. Trump, they'll probably vote Dem for the first time since Kennedy vs.. Nixon.

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Taco cat spelled backwards is....taco cat.

Fundamentals say he should. Of course the economy could turn, but he is doing everything he can to throw gas on the fire.

That and there are no really strong candidates running against. Just a bunch of Senators and they are historically weak. Only 3 sitting Senators have been elected President and they were all much better candidates.

I am surprised the percentage is not higher. Everyone is making money and that's what really counts in an election. All the donkeys can hope for is the economy to crash and who will that help? Oh yes, they help themselves by putting people out of work...


“We think the labor market is the strongest thing in the U.S. economy right now,” said Luke Tilley, chief economist at Wilmington Trust. “We’re encouraged by the wage gains.”

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"The great pleasure in life is doing what people say you cannot do."

Normally approval rating tracks with the economy. The economy is already baked into his approval numbers.

3 Senators have been elected. How many people with no previous political experience have been elected? Yet we have trump, I don't think using that historic number of senators becoming president is really meaningful.

Its really not about getting someone that voted for trump in 2016 to not vote for trump, the democratic candidate does not need that to happen. They need some combination of those that voted for Obama and didn't vote in 2016 or voted 3rd party to vote Democrat in 2020. That is their main goal, not so much persuading 2016 trump voters not to vote for him. Just look at Michigan Clinton got over 300,000 less votes than Obama did in 2012 and trump got only 100,000 more than Romney. Even if all those 100,000 with Obama-trump votes, there are lots of votes for Democrats to pick up. Wisconsin trump got less votes than Romney. With the turn out expected in 2020, trump needs to find more people to vote for him than did in 2016.

Those odds don't say what you think they say. They are not each of the odds of each Democratic candidate going head-to-head against Trump. They include the odds that each Democratic candidate will beat all the other Democratic candidates. While Trump is not expected to face a serious primary challenge. So as each Democratic candidate drops out, the odds of all those remaining will increase. Until it's head-to-head.

So a bunch of 1%ers are Trump fans. Who would have ever thought.

I thought that the odds show the payout if I were to bet today on any of the candidates. Trump currently has the lowest payout. Pick any of the dems and if they win and I get more than if I bet on Trump today and he won. Am I wrong?

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It doesn't really matter what Phil is saying, the music of his voice is the appropriate soundtrack for a bicycle race. HTupolev

You're exactly right. But that's a very different bet then the subject line: does Trump get re-elected? Because the odds include the odds of the Dems all competing against each other in addition to competing against Trump .

A Final Four analogy would be having to pick a title winner after the first semifinal game, but before the second. Let's say Michigan State wins the first semi, but Virginia and Auburn haven't play yet . If you had to pick the team with the best odds to win the title, it'd be Michigan State because they only have to play one game to win, while Auburn and Virginia would have to win two games to win.

That's what it's like with Trump. He's already won his semifinal game (effectively). But the Democrats all have to play each other before they can play Trump. And that's all very uncertain. There's no clear frontrunner, so the odds of any one Democrat aren't that great. But once a primary winner emerges, their odds of winning the Presidency will skyrocket.

So Trump is currently the betting favorite. Why can't you just admit it.

Trump favorite.

Trump favorite.








Seriously, I understand your excellent explanations. Now I am just trying to prepare you for when Trump tweets: "I'm the Vegas favorite to be re-elected."

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It doesn't really matter what Phil is saying, the music of his voice is the appropriate soundtrack for a bicycle race. HTupolev

Trump is the favorite! I've conditioned myself as to the inevitability as a self-protective tactic.

The same things that caused Democrats to win House seats over Republicans by 8.6%. Hard-core Trump suppporters will certainly not change, but a small shift is all that is needed to make the difference and suburban voters abandoned the GOP in droves. That said, I see the probability of a Trump re-election as ~70%, unless things go economically south. MOst votes are completely locked in, and Trump has a built-in 2-3% geographical advantage. I would go further and predict three scenarios: Trump wins the popular and electoral vote outright (20%), Trump loses the popular vote and still wins the election (50%), Trump loses the popular vote and election (30%). This is due to the fact that he is unabashedly POTEC, and truly more explicitly divisive than any other president in history. He would gladly lose 1 million votes in California to gain 10,000 in Wisconsin. That is simply the way he is, to the detriment of this country.

So what in your laundry list of things do you think would cause a 2016 Trump voter to not be a 2020 Trump voter?


A lot of people say that Trump is popular because the stock market is doing well but a big reason Trump won is because of voters in the heavy "working class" states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, Ohio and Wisconsin believed he could bring back jobs. It's always about local jobs and the economy, not about the stock market because a lot of his supporters want a good job and don't have a lot of spare money to invest in stocks.


Those Republican voters don't care about things like foreign affairs, personal character of a President, his language, his lying or who he hires or fires, they care about their job and if they can earn enough to support their family. If the jobs are there, they will vote for Trump.

I'm going to wait for the mainstream media to report on who they think will be the winner. If CNN, MSNBC, and most of the rest say it will be so and so, then it must be believable, because they report unbiased facts.