Males:
- Lange - People still underestimate the course and run course record holder. Its funny by now. Ohh and he still didnt show his full running potential - yet.
- McNamee - he is a beast in disguise of a sheep. Last year I made the mistake to underestimate him even though I was aware of him.
- Gomez - He is not van Lierde. So his 1st Kona is most likely Lange/Frodeno style. And thats 3rd place.
- Sanders - Normally a podium and even championship contender. Yet the combined power of Lange/McNamee/Gomez hunting each other down Ali Drive is nothing he can handle. No way.
Wild cards and dark horses (in descending priority):
- Nilsson - just because he could do it - he has the potential to be in the Lange/McNamee/Gomez/Sanders league. Yet he should show that potential before its too late.
- Kienle - I just dont see how he has the run to compete with Lange/McNamee/Gomez/Nilsson/Sanders, yet on a good day he might? And he has the experience... Yet I do believe it needs one or two DNF or penalties ahead of him to get on the podium.
- Dreitz - its his first Kona. Yet he is one of the few who sometimes excel to an almost unbelievable level. Races where he swam ok to good, biked almost like Kienle/Wurf/Starky and still hammered a rock solid fast run. Its almost stupid to fully ignore him. Yet he probably faces the fate of most first time Kona - athletes... something goes awkwardly wrong.
- Will Clarke - too easy to forget about him. Even more when seeing his past result. But he has the swim and the run and even the bike if you dig deeper. On a perfect day on the bike... he can make it to podium. Anything possible from 25 - 2.
- Matt Hanson - might sound like a weird pick. And he might most likely fail and not even hit TOP10. Yet on the perfect day he can... touch the podium.
Females:
- Ryf obviously. She is at a level where they should send her to compete with the males. Just because she is so cool and fast. Problem is, she would still be at least TOP10...
- Charles
- Jackson
Am not that much into the female part so I took the obvious picks. Except: I hope for Huetthaler to DNF - but hey, thats how I see it.