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TdF Stage 5; Loriant to Quimper...lumpy stage...breakaway wins?
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Here is tomorrow's profile with lots of cat 4 and cat 3 climbs



Last 5 km profile



This stage had Greg Van Aevermaet and Michael Matthews written all over it...or Sagan, if of course there is no breakaway that stays away. BMC is going to want to defend yellow, so it depends on who is in the breakaway. Also this is a stage that Julian Alaphillippe could win and go into yellow (he is 7 seconds back) with the stage win time bonus depending on where the BMC boys and Thomas finish on the stage.

GC

General classification after stage 4#Rider Name (Country) TeamResult1Greg Van Avermaet (Bel) BMC Racing Team13:33:56 2Tejay van Garderen (USA) BMC Racing Team 3Geraint Thomas (GBr) Team Sky0:00:03 4Philippe Gilbert (Bel) Quick-Step Floors0:00:05 5Julian Alaphilippe (Fra) Quick-Step Floors0:00:07 6Bob Jungels (Lux) Quick-Step Floors 7Tom Dumoulin (Ned) Team Sunweb0:00:11 8Søren Kragh Andersen (Den) Team Sunweb 9Michael Matthews (Aus) Team Sunweb 10Rigoberto Uran (Col) EF Education First-Drapac p/b Cannondale0:00:35 11Rafal Majka (Pol) Bora-Hansgrohe0:00:50 12Daniel Oss (Ita) Bora-Hansgrohe 13Jakob Fuglsang (Den) Astana Pro Team0:00:51 14Richie Porte (Aus) BMC Racing Team 15Alejandro Valverde (Spa) Movistar Team0:00:53 16Mikel Landa (Spa) Movistar Team 17Chris Froome (GBr) Team Sky0:00:55 18Adam Yates (GBr) Mitchelton-Scott0:01:00 19Vincenzo Nibali (Ita) Bahrain-Merida0:01:06 20Romain Bardet (Fra) AG2R La Mondiale0:01:15 21Primoz Roglic (Slo) LottoNL-Jumbo
Last edited by: devashish_paul: Jul 10, 18 17:58
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Re: TdF Stage 5; Loriant to Quimper...lumpy stage...breakaway wins? [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]
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Forget pt. 2 of my post in the stage 4 thread. I love Sagan and want him in green but I more so want to see van Avermaet take this in yellow.

808 > NYC > PDX > YVR
2024 Races: Taupo
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Re: TdF Stage 5; Loriant to Quimper...lumpy stage...breakaway wins? [hadukla] [ In reply to ]
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What about Matthews? He is 11 second back on GC and if he can take an intermediate time bonus and stage bonus yellow is also possible.

Here is the bonus seconds location at 192K: 700m at 9%...probably too steep for Matthews, but I bet he will try:


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Re: TdF Stage 5; Loriant to Quimper...lumpy stage...breakaway wins? [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]
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Possible, I just meant I wanted to see current yellow jersey winning the stage. Didn't matter too much who was wearing yellow but I do like Greg (and know him more than most other sprinters!) so even better.

808 > NYC > PDX > YVR
2024 Races: Taupo
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Re: TdF Stage 5; Loriant to Quimper...lumpy stage...breakaway wins? [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]
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Too many riders who could do well on this finish (Sagan, GVA, Colbrelli, Matthews, Gilbert, and some others I'm forgetting at the moment) for a break to win.

Mathews hasn't done much yet, so maybe he's been saving himself for this chance. But taking a shot in the dark, I'm picking Colbrelli.

"Human existence is based upon two pillars: Compassion and knowledge. Compassion without knowledge is ineffective; Knowledge without compassion is inhuman." Victor Weisskopf.
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Re: TdF Stage 5; Loriant to Quimper...lumpy stage...breakaway wins? [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]
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This has Gilbert written all over it...QS won't let a break go with guys like Gilbert so close to yellow, or with Alaphillipe so good on these type of routes.



"Only those who risk going too far can possibly find out how far one can go." T.S. Elliot | Cycle2Tri.com
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Re: TdF Stage 5; Loriant to Quimper...lumpy stage...breakaway wins? [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]
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Predict big early break with no true GC contenders (duh), that stays away. I think we may be surprised that none of the big names go as this profile sets up for a long day up-front and guys like Sagan will be saving their powder. GC guys may not have a day off as they pick/test each other in the "chase" group.
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Re: TdF Stage 5; Loriant to Quimper...lumpy stage...breakaway wins? [ktm520] [ In reply to ]
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obvius breakaway with no future. First week= everyone is fresh and with good legs= the sprint train incoming
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Re: TdF Stage 5; Loriant to Quimper...lumpy stage...breakaway wins? [Alvin Tostig] [ In reply to ]
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Matthews has abandoned
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Re: TdF Stage 5; Loriant to Quimper...lumpy stage...breakaway wins? [cartsman] [ In reply to ]
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What happened for the abandon. I am not on the coverage yet as I have to go into a meeting
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Re: TdF Stage 5; Loriant to Quimper...lumpy stage...breakaway wins? [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]
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They just explained he was ill, throwing up last night and wanted to try and toe the line this morning to just survive but it was apparently too bad to start.

808 > NYC > PDX > YVR
2024 Races: Taupo
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Re: TdF Stage 5; Loriant to Quimper...lumpy stage...breakaway wins? [hadukla] [ In reply to ]
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Sucks for the Sunweb team. The guy is a powerhouse to help the GC guys too
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Re: TdF Stage 5; Loriant to Quimper...lumpy stage...breakaway wins? [hadukla] [ In reply to ]
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I read that Cav was dropped on the first climb of the day. Is there any cutoff risk? Or is he back in?
Last edited by: devashish_paul: Jul 11, 18 7:36
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Re: TdF Stage 5; Loriant to Quimper...lumpy stage...breakaway wins? [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]
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devashish_paul wrote:
I read that Cab was dropped on the first climb of the day. Is there any cutoff risk? Or is he back in?

7min down with 42k to go, right now fine, Kittel is 6 back as well. Cav's trainer said a fw weeks ago it will be hard for Cav to get through the entire race with all of his crash related injuries leading up to the TDF. This is essentially a training race for Cav.
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Re: TdF Stage 5; Loriant to Quimper...lumpy stage...breakaway wins? [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]
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devashish_paul wrote:
Sucks for the Sunweb team. The guy is a powerhouse to help the GC guys too

Word, and with Tom so well positioned currently... not that I think Tom had a chance to start with!

808 > NYC > PDX > YVR
2024 Races: Taupo
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Re: TdF Stage 5; Loriant to Quimper...lumpy stage...breakaway wins? [Ron_Burgundy] [ In reply to ]
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I suppose if he gets the miles in now and can up his fitness he can be in position to be 4th man back with 150m to go vs 10th. He has to have the fitness to just compete for set up positions before he can even contest the sprint. In his own words if he can accumulate less fatigue along the way then he can be in better contention in the sprints in the second half when guys like Sagan are more cooked from contesting sprinter and rolling stages. Let's see.
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Re: TdF Stage 5; Loriant to Quimper...lumpy stage...breakaway wins? [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]
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Gaviria dropped. Guess that answers my question about him on hilly races. Sagan gets green again this year

808 > NYC > PDX > YVR
2024 Races: Taupo
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Re: TdF Stage 5; Loriant to Quimper...lumpy stage...breakaway wins? [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]
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Is sky trying to get Kwiato a stage win?

ETA: Nm

808 > NYC > PDX > YVR
2024 Races: Taupo
Last edited by: hadukla: Jul 11, 18 8:26
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Re: TdF Stage 5; Loriant to Quimper...lumpy stage...breakaway wins? [hadukla] [ In reply to ]
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hadukla wrote:
Is sky trying to get Kwiato a stage win?

ETA: Nm

Gilbert and Alaphillipe move excruciatingly close to taking yellow. Can't wait to watch tonite. Investor meetings early morning than stuck for 2 hrs in a Canadian hospital line up waiting for them to tell me that time and physio will fix me up.
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Re: TdF Stage 5; Loriant to Quimper...lumpy stage...breakaway wins? [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]
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Great finish. Not sure why Sky was pushing the pace so hard, they dropped the pure sprinters and basically gave the stage to Sagan by doing so while all the contenders stayed in the front. Maybe to get the contenders legs softened up for Sunday?

Looking forward to Chad's twitter summary

808 > NYC > PDX > YVR
2024 Races: Taupo
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Re: TdF Stage 5; Loriant to Quimper...lumpy stage...breakaway wins? [hadukla] [ In reply to ]
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hadukla wrote:
Great finish. Not sure why Sky was pushing the pace so hard, they dropped the pure sprinters and basically gave the stage to Sagan by doing so while all the contenders stayed in the front. Maybe to get the contenders legs softened up for Sunday?

Looking forward to Chad's twitter summary

Maybe this way when the cobbles show up Sagan is a bit of a Sky ally. As long as Sky keeps the pace up on Lumpy stages it sheds all the pure sprinters.
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Re: TdF Stage 5; Loriant to Quimper...lumpy stage...breakaway wins? [hadukla] [ In reply to ]
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hadukla wrote:
Great finish. Not sure why Sky was pushing the pace so hard, they dropped the pure sprinters and basically gave the stage to Sagan by doing so while all the contenders stayed in the front. Maybe to get the contenders legs softened up for Sunday?

Looking forward to Chad's twitter summary

I guess that is something that sky does really well. They go after every opportunity to gain time and put the pressure on. They hope one contender is a bit too far back or not concentrated enough or has a bad day and they just want to exploit it.

10k - 30:48 / half - 1:06:40
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Re: TdF Stage 5; Loriant to Quimper...lumpy stage...breakaway wins? [ToBeasy] [ In reply to ]
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Well hell, I am just going to pick Sagan for all but the mountain top finishes from now on. I thought he was cooked with 300m to go, but the Eveready Bunny just came home a banging again. He may not always have the legs, but is uncanny how he noses into the right spot at the right time. Tip of the hat today.
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Re: TdF Stage 5; Loriant to Quimper...lumpy stage...breakaway wins? [G-man] [ In reply to ]
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GVA gave Sagan practically a perfect lead out lol, these guys making the stage win easy for Sagan... Another puncheur stage tomorrow, let's see how Sagan does back to back...
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Re: TdF Stage 5; Loriant to Quimper...lumpy stage...breakaway wins? [aavlee] [ In reply to ]
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right?!?! lol

all these guys are pressing, and end up going too early. sagan just sits back and chills until the proper time to sprint.
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