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Re: IM Canada F40-44: new thread [JayPeeWhy] [ In reply to ]
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i dont understand your reply??? what are you trying to say?


sad we havent heard from her. anyone in Squamish with news?!

Jonathan Caron / Professional Coach / ironman champions / age group world champions
Jonnyo Coaching
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Re: IM Canada F40-44: new thread [Billyk24] [ In reply to ]
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Billyk24 wrote:
A gal from Vietnam responded "elsewhere" about the China event in which cheating was "seen" by the Vietnam participant.

any links you can share? Is it an eye witness account, or is there some other sort of proof?
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Re: IM Canada F40-44: new thread [JayPeeWhy] [ In reply to ]
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JayPeeWhy wrote:
It was. Watch this space.

Please share any info as this sharing has brought forth witnesses and the TRUTH.

Not much can be done about her actions until the sporting federations have had their last word. Some people in Squamish still believe that she did not cheat and that it was not proven she cheated. The Allegations must be cleared up so that it there is no doubt that she cheated, she is currently exploiting this doubt.
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Re: IM Canada F40-44: new thread [JayPeeWhy] [ In reply to ]
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I love this guy.
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Re: IM Canada F40-44: new thread [twitchiest] [ In reply to ]
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twitchiest wrote:
JayPeeWhy wrote:
It was. Watch this space.


Please share any info as this sharing has brought forth witnesses and the TRUTH.

Not much can be done about her actions until the sporting federations have had their last word. Some people in Squamish still believe that she did not cheat and that it was not proven she cheated. The Allegations must be cleared up so that it there is no doubt that she cheated, she is currently exploiting this doubt.

Unbelievable..
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Re: IM Canada F40-44: new thread [twitchiest] [ In reply to ]
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Re: IM Canada F40-44: new thread [Vans88] [ In reply to ]
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Vans88 wrote:
I love this guy.

I love you too.

https://www.pbandjcoaching.com
https://www.thisbigroadtrip.com
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Re: IM Canada F40-44: new thread [peeg] [ In reply to ]
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Thanks for doing the article Dan. Glad to see the evidence clearly out there. I would
be happy to see Miller get DQ' from another race, and hopefully permanently banned
from our sport.
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Re: IM Canada F40-44: new thread [JayPeeWhy] [ In reply to ]
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JayPeeWhy:
your analysis (I presume its yours) uses Julie's interviews as a source... what if you remove that (she could have mis-remembered)?

What speed would JM have had to travel on laps 2 and 3 to make up the ~10 minutes (she was down by 11:16 after lap one the only 1:20 near the end of the bike)? The main page article is saying that 3:52 is possible for the whole course. Ok. But does doing laps two and three 15 minutes faster than lap one make sense? Is that possible?
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Re: IM Canada F40-44: new thread [peeg] [ In reply to ]
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The article says Reno did 3:45 but rode 1:11 per lap. 1:11 x 3 = 3:33, so I assume there is a 12 minute spur or something in addition to the 3 laps.

So, Miller's bike needed to be 3:52. Minus 12 = 3:40. First lap was 1:26, leaving 2:14 for the other 2 laps, or 1:07 for each. So, her splits would have been like 1:26, 1:07, 1:07.
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Re: IM Canada F40-44: new thread [peeg] [ In reply to ]
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peeg wrote:
JayPeeWhy:
your analysis (I presume its yours) uses Julie's interviews as a source... what if you remove that (she could have mis-remembered)?

What speed would JM have had to travel on laps 2 and 3 to make up the ~10 minutes (she was down by 11:16 after lap one the only 1:20 near the end of the bike)? The main page article is saying that 3:52 is possible for the whole course. Ok. But does doing laps two and three 15 minutes faster than lap one make sense? Is that possible?


It makes no difference. Tamasin passed Julie initially (photo evidence proves that), rode away to gain some considerable margin and then passed Julie at the end (according to Tamasin and also according to Julie in the interview). So the source is two fold, Tamasin Reno and Julie Miller.

Even if we remove that, having been pedestrian enough to lose all that time on the first lap, it would have required the about the same pace as the pro females to overtake Tamasin Reno and if she was going that pace then how did Tamasin pass her again at the end. If Julie was going slow enough at the end for Tamasin to not only catch but pass and still almost 2 minutes into Miller it is likely that miller would have to be going as fast if not faster than the pro / elite females for that middle portion. Dan has alluded to that in the last paragraph, I think he is building in an element of comfort zone in order to be fair. I am looking at that info though.

https://www.pbandjcoaching.com
https://www.thisbigroadtrip.com
Last edited by: JayPeeWhy: Sep 24, 15 12:49
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Re: IM Canada F40-44: new thread [kny] [ In reply to ]
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kny wrote:
The article says Reno did 3:45 but rode 1:11 per lap. 1:11 x 3 = 3:33, so I assume there is a 12 minute spur or something in addition to the 3 laps.

So, Miller's bike needed to be 3:52. Minus 12 = 3:40. First lap was 1:26, leaving 2:14 for the other 2 laps, or 1:07 for each. So, her splits would have been like 1:26, 1:07, 1:07.


I can't see that 1:11 mentioned and if it is there I assume it is a typo. Reno was pretty consistent from a power perspective, slightly fast out of the gate as everyone usually is but after that her pacing was pretty sweet.

https://www.pbandjcoaching.com
https://www.thisbigroadtrip.com
Last edited by: JayPeeWhy: Sep 24, 15 12:48
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Re: IM Canada F40-44: new thread [JayPeeWhy] [ In reply to ]
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So the course was just a straight 3 loop? Dan's article states Reno's time is 3:45. This from your Evernote:
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Miller appears to be doing approximately 1hr 23min per lap
Gray Hewitt appears to be doing 1hr 16min per lap.
Reno appears to be doing 1hr 11min per lap

Of course it is entirely possible to do 1:11 and the final two laps in 2:34.

If Miller did 1:23 and finished in 3:52, then she went 1:23, 1:14:30, 1:14:30. A nice acceleration, but certainly not impossible.
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Re: IM Canada F40-44: new thread [kny] [ In reply to ]
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kny wrote:
So the course was just a straight 3 loop? Dan's article states Reno's time is 3:45. This from your Evernote:
Quote:

Miller appears to be doing approximately 1hr 23min per lap
Gray Hewitt appears to be doing 1hr 16min per lap.
Reno appears to be doing 1hr 11min per lap


Of course it is entirely possible to do 1:11 and the final two laps in 2:34.

If Miller did 1:23 and finished in 3:52, then she went 1:23, 1:14:30, 1:14:30. A nice acceleration, but certainly not impossible.

Yeah, this is what I was getting at.
lap 1: 28.9 km/h
Lap 2 and 3:32.2km/h
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Re: IM Canada F40-44: new thread [peeg] [ In reply to ]
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Would that jive with Ms. Reno passing Julie again toward the end of the bike?



@CycleHeavy
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Re: IM Canada F40-44: new thread [TriMeSBR] [ In reply to ]
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TriMeSBR wrote:
Would that jive with Ms. Reno passing Julie again toward the end of the bike?

No.

If Ms. Reno went 1:11, 1:17, 1:17 then Ms. Miller would have had to do something like 1:23, 1:07, 1:22 for Ms. Reno to pass her back again on lap 3 late in the loop and gain an additional 2 minutes before T2.
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Re: IM Canada F40-44: new thread [kny] [ In reply to ]
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Exactly my point (but I didn't do the math - thank for doing that). I was just confused as to why others are even discussing if a "x:xx time would be reasonable" - the pacing issue indicates other factors are clearly at play.



@CycleHeavy
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Re: IM Canada F40-44: new thread [kny] [ In reply to ]
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"If Miller did 1:23 and finished in 3:52, then she went 1:23, 1:14:30, 1:14:30. A nice acceleration, but certainly not impossible."

just as a point of order, because i obviously spent some time on this...

if tamasin reno rode even splits she rode 1:15 per lap. that's 2:30 julie would have need to have ridden minus the 6:45 she was down to tamasin on lap 1. that's 1:12-ish lap by my math, and that's if julie caught tamasin at the end of the ride. in fact, she caught and passed tamasin well prior to that, such that she would have had to pass her, get ahead, die, get caught, and have tamasin put 1:20 on her between the pass back and the end of the ride.

this makes it more like 1:09, 1:10 per lap. or faster. because we don't know how much prior to the end of the bike ride julie caught up to tamasin.

unless my analysis is wrong, and if so i'm eager to hear where i am in err.


Dan Empfield
aka Slowman
Last edited by: Slowman: Sep 24, 15 13:26
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Re: IM Canada F40-44: new thread [kny] [ In reply to ]
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kny wrote:
TriMeSBR wrote:
Would that jive with Ms. Reno passing Julie again toward the end of the bike?


No.

If Ms. Reno went 1:11, 1:17, 1:17 then Ms. Miller would have had to do something like 1:23, 1:07, 1:22 for Ms. Reno to pass her back again on lap 3 late in the loop and gain an additional 2 minutes before T2.

So it looks like the course cut was on loop 2. 15 to 16 minutes worth.
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Re: IM Canada F40-44: new thread [kny] [ In reply to ]
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Apologies for the confusion. I have amended the wording.

Miller appears to have done approximately 1hr 23min during the initial lap to the point of pictures being taken
Gray Hewitt appears to be doing 1hr 16min during the initial lap to the point of pictures being taken
Reno appears to be doing 1hr 11min during the initial lap to the point of pictures being taken

These pictures may well have been taken before the end of lap 1. Looks like it was 2 minutes or so before the end of lap 1 going by Reno's data.

This actually makes things very marginally worse for Miller because, as everyone else is going faster, the time difference at the end of the actual lap would be greater than that noted.

Reno's Garmin Connect data would appear to show laps of

Lap One - 1:13.15
Lap Two - 2:27.55 (so a 1:14.40 lap)
Lap Three - 3:46.27 (This is a 1:18.32 lap that includes a slow, almost zero cadence straight - see below * With that 1 minutes plus accounted for this lap is likely around 1:17 plus change)

(* There is straight section at the end of the ride, off of the looped part that accounts for a minute or so and is likely the run into transition that has been recorded by the watch)

https://www.pbandjcoaching.com
https://www.thisbigroadtrip.com
Last edited by: JayPeeWhy: Sep 24, 15 15:33
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Re: IM Canada F40-44: new thread [JayPeeWhy] [ In reply to ]
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one more thing, for kny's benefit. if we just split this into 3 laps for the sake of discussion, julie's lap would have been 1:22 or so if she came out of the water with tamasin. but she was 4min ahead of her out of the water, and that makes julie's first lap 1:27 or so. this puts a lot of pressure on what she would have needed to do in the last two-thirds of the ride to come up with a 3:52. and, that 3:52 is about the best case scenario i can make. that's if she rank 1:48. if she ran 1:50, then the split is 3:50. if she ran 1:52 then the split is 3:48.

however, i think it's fair to give her every benefit of the doubt, and just show the math. when you do this, it's very possible she did complete the entire course fairly. what makes it harder, tho, is when you calculate what needs to happen in the last 2/3 of the bike ride in order to motor tamasin up, pass her, get ahead, die, have tamasin retake her and then lose another 1:20 before the ride finish.

Dan Empfield
aka Slowman
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Re: IM Canada F40-44: new thread [Slowman] [ In reply to ]
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Slowman wrote:
one more thing, for kny's benefit. if we just split this into 3 laps for the sake of discussion, julie's lap would have been 1:22 or so if she came out of the water with tamasin. but she was 4min ahead of her out of the water, and that makes julie's first lap 1:27 or so. this puts a lot of pressure on what she would have needed to do in the last two-thirds of the ride to come up with a 3:52. and, that 3:52 is about the best case scenario i can make. that's if she rank 1:48. if she ran 1:50, then the split is 3:50. if she ran 1:52 then the split is 3:48.

however, i think it's fair to give her every benefit of the doubt, and just show the math. when you do this, it's very possible she did complete the entire course fairly. what makes it harder, tho, is when you calculate what needs to happen in the last 2/3 of the bike ride in order to motor tamasin up, pass her, get ahead, die, have tamasin retake her and then lose another 1:20 before the ride finish.


It should also be noted that without actual hard evidence of cutting the course (video footage for example) that all of Millers race exploits are, in theory, humanly possible and she may always complete the course fairly. The world record run pace at IMC, the Matt Russell beating bike laps at Vancouver Half and the Elite / Olympian level mid discipline bike performance in China. None are outside the scope of human achievement but I guess all might leave level headed people to investigate how these extraordinary feats are being achieved.

https://www.pbandjcoaching.com
https://www.thisbigroadtrip.com
Last edited by: JayPeeWhy: Sep 24, 15 13:43
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Re: IM Canada F40-44: new thread [JayPeeWhy] [ In reply to ]
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bear in mind my thesis: the OVERALL splits are achievable. what can turn a believable achievement into less believable achievement is a timed segment inside of a split.

Dan Empfield
aka Slowman
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Re: IM Canada F40-44: new thread [Slowman] [ In reply to ]
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Slowman wrote:
bear in mind my thesis: the OVERALL splits are achievable. what can turn a believable achievement into less believable achievement is a timed segment inside of a split.

Likely the reason why things have gone under the radar for so long.

https://www.pbandjcoaching.com
https://www.thisbigroadtrip.com
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Re: IM Canada F40-44: new thread [JayPeeWhy] [ In reply to ]
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JayPeeWhy wrote:
Slowman wrote:
bear in mind my thesis: the OVERALL splits are achievable. what can turn a believable achievement into less believable achievement is a timed segment inside of a split.


Likely the reason why things have gone under the radar for so long.

Was talking about this with Sylvan of sportstats this past weekend at IMLT.

I think much of this would never have come up if JM had taken the DQ quietly at this year's IMC.

Rather, she lawyered up and here we are - which I think is better since it draws attention to fairplay racing and hopefully serves as a deterrent to other folks contemplating of pulling off the same stuff (but maybe I'm just being optimistic).

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