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IRONCowboy 50 Ironmans in 50 Consecutive Days Starting June 6, 2015 - Prediction Thread
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Re: IRONCowboy 50 Ironmans in 50 Consecutive Days Starting June 6, 2015 - Prediction Thread [Thomas Gerlach] [ In reply to ]
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I'll put the over/under at 34. I think it's the little things that are the biggest risk (blood blister, saddle sore, sore knee, etc.) since there's really no down time to let anything heal properly.

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Re: IRONCowboy 50 Ironmans in 50 Consecutive Days Starting June 6, 2015 - Prediction Thread [Titanflexr] [ In reply to ]
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Titanflexr wrote:
I'll put the over/under at 34. I think it's the little things that are the biggest risk (blood blister, saddle sore, sore knee, etc.) since there's really no down time to let anything heal properly.

That and what about mechanical or a weather delay making travel impossible. I assume he will always have some local support and can get on another bike if need be etc, but so many things. If this guy gets it done I think UPS or FEDEX should hire him as their CLO (Chief Logistics Officer).


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Re: IRONCowboy 50 Ironmans in 50 Consecutive Days Starting June 6, 2015 - Prediction Thread [Titanflexr] [ In reply to ]
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Titanflexr wrote:
I'll put the over/under at 34.

I'll take the under. I'll call either a logistics problem or plain and simple lack of (good) sleep, followed by saddle sores etc, followed by weather, etc.

I'll be thoroughly impressed if he succeeds (with sufficient witnesses/proof).

Eliot
blog thing - strava thing
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Re: IRONCowboy 50 Ironmans in 50 Consecutive Days Starting June 6, 2015 - Prediction Thread [Titanflexr] [ In reply to ]
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Agree with the 34. 2/3rds of the way in ultradistances is when a lot of bad things happen both physically and mentally. That said, 8 of 21 starters (38%) finished the Triple Deca (30 in 30) in September 2013. With the additional travel and 20 full distance tris more, perhaps a 10-15% chance? We need a betting pool or something.
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Re: IRONCowboy 50 Ironmans in 50 Consecutive Days Starting June 6, 2015 - Prediction Thread [Thomas Gerlach] [ In reply to ]
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I've heard crew mutiny as a possible source of failure. Evidently the stress on the support staff is pretty high even in RAAM, which is <2weeks. Nearly two months supporting might make Big Brother look like a cake walk.

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Re: IRONCowboy 50 Ironmans in 50 Consecutive Days Starting June 6, 2015 - Prediction Thread [renorider] [ In reply to ]
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Gonna have some hot ones for sure. Planned 13-14 hours to complete them it looks like. If/When he makes the Missouri/Illinois/Kentucky ones I might have to go see this.

Formerly TriBrad02
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Re: IRONCowboy 50 Ironmans in 50 Consecutive Days Starting June 6, 2015 - Prediction Thread [Thomas Gerlach] [ In reply to ]
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A lot of these endurance challenges, while daunting, are doable. Serious props to him for attempting something that there's a decent chance he won't complete....pushing the envelope, and taking that risk.

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Re: IRONCowboy 50 Ironmans in 50 Consecutive Days Starting June 6, 2015 - Prediction Thread [Titanflexr] [ In reply to ]
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Titanflexr wrote:
A lot of these endurance challenges, while daunting, are doable. Serious props to him for attempting something that there's a decent chance he won't complete....pushing the envelope, and taking that risk.

He/They did a nice job with the intro video to this project. Basically, someone has to push the envelope to prove that it is possible. Upward and onward.


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Re: IRONCowboy 50 Ironmans in 50 Consecutive Days Starting June 6, 2015 - Prediction Thread [Thomas Gerlach] [ In reply to ]
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We had a different thread on this before where we kind of looked at the logistics and travel time etc, along with recovery. What I'm wondering is, this guy is doing it to promote healthier lifestyle etc. A good cause. But he has absolutely no time after every race to stick around to raise awareness, visit schools, speak at community centers, or do some interviews or whatever, unless maybe it takes place in his RV enroute to the next state. This does kind of diminish the scope of his message, at least while he is in the middle of his 50 days, I would think. Alot can and most likely will be done by his support staff I'm sure but the guy himself has to appear from time to time as well right? And if he does take the time for all of this...then there really is no time for recovery at all.
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Re: IRONCowboy 50 Ironmans in 50 Consecutive Days Starting June 6, 2015 - Prediction Thread [Thomas Gerlach] [ In reply to ]
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50/50
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Re: IRONCowboy 50 Ironmans in 50 Consecutive Days Starting June 6, 2015 - Prediction Thread [Titanflexr] [ In reply to ]
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I will take the (way) under. 15 would be monumental in my book.
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Re: IRONCowboy 50 Ironmans in 50 Consecutive Days Starting June 6, 2015 - Prediction Thread [Thomas Gerlach] [ In reply to ]
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WAY under.. Give me 13.. Way to much logistically going on. Something will go wrong.

I will lay 5 to 1 for anyone that wants to bet that he will complete this thing ($10 bet, first person to reply with full name and reasonable posting history)

Austin Hardy -

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Re: IRONCowboy 50 Ironmans in 50 Consecutive Days Starting June 6, 2015 - Prediction Thread [Titanflexr] [ In reply to ]
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Titanflexr wrote:
I'll put the over/under at 34. I think it's the little things that are the biggest risk (blood blister, saddle sore, sore knee, etc.) since there's really no down time to let anything heal properly.

I'll take the under as well, probably way under. One of his biggest logistical challenges is going to be getting through the first 3 days with Hawaii-Alaska-Washington.

As I mentioned in the other thread, he's going to be passing almost by my house on day 30-something. If he makes it that far, I will personally ride out there and tell him I was wrong.
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Re: IRONCowboy 50 Ironmans in 50 Consecutive Days Starting June 6, 2015 - Prediction Thread [Thomas Gerlach] [ In reply to ]
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I wonder what his chances would be on his "home course" of doing 50 IMs in 50 Days. I would imagine even that would be less than 10%..

Given the travel requirements and support needed for the travel and changing venues the chances of success on this are less than 1% OF 1%..

I wish him luck, and IF he completes 30 I will turn into the biggest fan boy, and will be tracking and cheering every step.. Until then, I will watch with detached amusement as he attempts the impossible (foolish?) goal he has set.

Austin Hardy -

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Re: IRONCowboy 50 Ironmans in 50 Consecutive Days Starting June 6, 2015 - Prediction Thread [Aust1227] [ In reply to ]
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Aust1227 wrote:
WAY under.. Give me 13.. Way to much logistically going on. Something will go wrong.

I will lay 5 to 1 for anyone that wants to bet that he will complete this thing ($10 bet, first person to reply with full name and reasonable posting history)

That's some sweet action...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Esa1uNhgTKQ
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Re: IRONCowboy 50 Ironmans in 50 Consecutive Days Starting June 6, 2015 - Prediction Thread [Thom] [ In reply to ]
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Agree, I think logistics are going to be the biggest challenge. Would be great if he is able to pull it off (I'll put it at 20 days max which in and of itself is still a huge accomplishment). He has some interesting course setups, including full Boston Marathon course as well as IMWI course. Like you, if he is still going when he reaches MA on July 6 I'll try to find him along the last mile of the marathon route to personally say I was wrong and to wish him well on his journey.



"You can never win or lose if you don't run the race." - Richard Butler

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Re: IRONCowboy 50 Ironmans in 50 Consecutive Days Starting June 6, 2015 - Prediction Thread [Thomas Gerlach] [ In reply to ]
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I feel like I must be missing something here...wouldn't setting up the bike and run courses to work towards his next location make far more sense logistically? By doing loops, out and backs, etc. he is adding an incredible amount of RV travel time to this already impossible task. I would guess that if he set up each Ironman to get him closer to his next location - other than the swim of course - he would save 100+ hours of travel over the 50 days.
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Re: IRONCowboy 50 Ironmans in 50 Consecutive Days Starting June 6, 2015 - Prediction Thread [Thomas Gerlach] [ In reply to ]
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Is there a self-imposed midnight cutoff? For example, a flight gets delayed or the freeway that he's on, to go from one state to another, comes to a crawl or closes due to accidents/constructions and causes him to start later in the day hence making him finish after midnight.


__________________________________________________________________________
My marathon PR is "under three, high twos. I had a two hour and fifty-something."
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Re: IRONCowboy 50 Ironmans in 50 Consecutive Days Starting June 6, 2015 - Prediction Thread [Thomas Gerlach] [ In reply to ]
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If he completes it, I put the odds of someone accusing him of cheating to get it done at 100%.

I'm beginning to think that we are much more fucked than I thought.
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Re: IRONCowboy 50 Ironmans in 50 Consecutive Days Starting June 6, 2015 - Prediction Thread [Aust1227] [ In reply to ]
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Aust1227 wrote:
WAY under.. Give me 13.. Way to much logistically going on. Something will go wrong.

I will lay 5 to 1 for anyone that wants to bet that he will complete this thing ($10 bet, first person to reply with full name and reasonable posting history)

I'm tempted to take that, if only to make his progress more interesting to me.
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Re: IRONCowboy 50 Ironmans in 50 Consecutive Days Starting June 6, 2015 - Prediction Thread [Thomas Gerlach] [ In reply to ]
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While I'd also love to see him pull it off, also give me the WAY under. Less than 20. The logistics are daunting, plus lack of sleep, the hot temps he'll often see, etc.
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Re: IRONCowboy 50 Ironmans in 50 Consecutive Days Starting June 6, 2015 - Prediction Thread [mbwallis] [ In reply to ]
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I just hope there are not legs where he has to ride a trainer or run on a treadmill ....hopefully weather/travel will cooperate and prevent that from happening. The guy is nuts...and I will be following :) I want to see his PMC in Training Peaks too.
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Re: IRONCowboy 50 Ironmans in 50 Consecutive Days Starting June 6, 2015 - Prediction Thread [Thomas Gerlach] [ In reply to ]
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I believe he will finish under 6.
Not to say that I don't believe in the guy, its just courses like Las Vegas are brutal and having done a few ironmans before times travel will equal blow out.
If anyone can complete something like this, its the IronCowboy... Good luck
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Re: IRONCowboy 50 Ironmans in 50 Consecutive Days Starting June 6, 2015 - Prediction Thread [Ozlas] [ In reply to ]
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Ozlas wrote:
I believe he will finish under 6.
Not to say that I don't believe in the guy, its just courses like Las Vegas are brutal and having done a few ironmans before times travel will equal blow out.
If anyone can complete something like this, its the IronCowboy... Good luck

So few?
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