"Pattachi has been brilliant"

Whoops. Excuse my spelling. Let's make that Petacchi.

I'd have to agree with you on both counts. Petacchi has ridden incredibly well, but he is a sprinter, so we won't hear from him again for a week or so. Beloki is in good position to challenge Lance, by which I mean stay close to him, and near the front always, but probably not beat him. Ullrich is still a threat, if he can stick with Lance, Heras, and Rubiera in the mountains. What I would look for from Ullrich is for him to try to hang onto any USPS breaks and stay with Lance as much as possible, hoping for an opportunity to break away, or take advantage of a moment of weakness. I don't think he can count on his own team pulling him up any mountains.

My only concern for Lance's victory is the now well known fact that he has had a difficult recovery after Dauphine, and was not at 100% coming into the Tour. If he is in top form, or relatively close to it, then he'll be untouchable barring a crash. But if he has more of those stomach problems we've been hearing about, well, we all know what those can do to your race performance.

What truly amazes me is some of the trash-talking I've read online about how Lance isn't as strong as in the past four years, he's showing weakness, other teams have advantages... Does this sound oddly familiar? Oh right. They said that last year when Lance went Postal(I kill me!) on their sorry a$$es and left them at the bottom of Les Alps d'Huez(or however it's spelled).

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There has been alot of talk of the stomach ailment and slower than usual recovery from his crash, but there has been no evidence of it affecting him. Are people basing the "talk" on his 7th place prologue? If so it should have been cleared up in the TTT.

My biggest concern is rivals teaming up to stop Lance. They could cause some trouble, but luckily his team is solid and healthy. If we were looking at a situation like 2001 when Heras was not pulling due to an injury, then we might see some trouble. Tomorrow is the start of the race for George, Chechu, Heras, and Peña ...I can't wait.

As for 2nd, I don't see Beloki or Ullrich having the necessary team support to pull them, Simoni will make up some time, and could very possibly overtake Beloki and Ullrich.

My prediction: Simoni in second about 8 back to LA, with Beloki in 3rd about 10 back. Ullrich cracks on Sunday and is a non factor but still top five.

If Petacchi could climb...that is a scarry thought!!!

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The Cuban Comet
(Comets are unbelievably slow over Cuba)

if Petacchi could climb he wouldnt have won 4 stages thus far....

Beloki 2nd, Botero 3rd.

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Tom Demerly
The Tri Shop.com

Petacchi is not known for his climbing. He was eliminated at the Giro after missing the cut-off time on a mountain stage. This was after winning 6 stages. Heartbreaking really as he had the points jersey firmly in his grasp.

I'll go for Ullrich and Beloki in that order. Mostly sentimental, but hey it's a gentleperson's bet, right?

2nd - Ullrich
3rd - Beloki
4th - Simoni

Sentimental favorite was Simoni. If only he hadn't lost that time on the TTT.

I think the race is far from over. One bad day for Lance in the mountains or a crash and this is a whole new race. In that case Ullrich could steal this one from Lance. Still a lot of racing to go though. :)


Scott

Beloki second, Ullrich third, Heras fourth, Simoni fifth.

Ullrich will take second if he does not crack at all in the mountains. With Ullrich, it is about motivation and confidence. He got a huge dose of that after the 3rd in the TTT. Even if he loses 30" to Beloki in the mountains, he will gain a 1' in the TTs. He's riding better and better everyday. If he cracks. . .Beloki. Beloki will be the only one to stay CONSISTENTLY near Lance in the mountains if Ullrich fails. Well, Simoni might, but he can't TT to save his ass relative to the otrher three and he's already 3' down. Heras will be forced to sit on someone's wheel again, preventing him from making huge time or taking a stage win. His lack of TT will force him out of the top three even if he finishes with the best of the rest after LA blows the doors off in the mountains. I pick him 4th, which really ain't too shabby, but not what he could do if he weren't a Postie in the mountains. He will gain enough time to make up for Botero's superior TT. I'm still shocked that I've had to take tyler out of my top 3. What a shame. But my admiration is greater today than even if he'd li8ved up to that prediction.

So:

1. LA

2. Ullrich

3. Beloki

4. Heras

5. Botero

Michael Rogers, who will be watching Lance so closely trying to learn how to win this race that he will end up in second place without realizing it. (Either that or he becomes a Frigo - awesome week-long racer.)

"IMO only a fool would bet money against a Lance win given the way things have unfolded"

Statistically though, the odds are against him...only one guy in million years has won 5 in a row ;)

Only one day after my prediction, I am serving myself a big plate of crow. I really thought Simoni was up to the task. How could he crack today? I never thought Botero was ready, but Simoni...Crow really s&%ks !!!

And Petacchi...quit on the first climb. What a waste of my cheering.

Looks like there will be few suprises: LA, Beloki, Ullrich

Verinqui was fun to watch today.

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The Cuban Comet
(Comets are unbelievably slow over Cuba)

Yeah, Veronique (or however you spell his name) was awesome today, what a good 4 hours in front of the TV =P

My bet for 2nd place?

Lance Armstrong :-)



Paulo

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"Yeah, no one likes a smartass, but we all like stars" - Thom Yorke


smartasscoach.tri-oeiras.com

Appending my list after Saturday's action:

1. Armstrong
2. Ullrich
3. Beloki
4. Heras
5. Well, this one is up for grabs. There are a number who finished in the big group who may fit the bill. A sentimental pick here would be Tyler. If he can only maintain when the guns go off tomorrow, he'll be solid. But I think he'll stay just off his game enough in the TTs to allow Heras to maintain 4th. But again, 5th is up for grabs. Tyler? Sastre? Garzelli? Mancebo? There are quite a few possibilities.

Essa eu gostei !!! Mas acho que ele vai ganhar !!!

This one I liked ... But he´s gonna win !!!

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Luiz Eng