Ok, lets look both at a typical road race and at the overall issues I personally value. As I’ve said, I have no doubt that the S5 is more aero than my Parlee Z5 or most other road bikes. However, speaking again for me personally, and in real world racing situations, 99.5 or whatever % of the time it simply doesn’t matter. Road racing & crits are NOT TIME TRIALS, with the sole exceptions of solo breakaways, and frankly, with the exception of grand tour events and one day classics, the benefit that someone MIGHT get from having an aero frame in a solo breakaway is miniscule, and when breakaways succeed, at least at the amateur level, 99.5% of the time it certainly wasn’t because the person was on an aero frame & it saved them the 2 seconds or whatever the benefit would be in a theoretical 20-30 mile solo effort.
Aside from the very rare successful breakaway, having an aero frame in the pack simply does not matter. In a bubble environment, where a theoretical pack in a road race doesn’t have to brake, corner, climb, descend, etc…en mass, I’m sure that a miniscule advantage could be gained by having the most aero bike in the pack…but to what benefit? I’ve done road races where my buddy & I had the latest/greatest Reynolds carbon wheels with ceramic bearings from my buddy Richie at Wheelbuilder—guess what–we ended up waiting at the bottom of the descents for the rest of the peloton to catch-up. The technology was great, but it gave us absolutely no practical advantage in MOST typical road races. So getting back to the theoretical advantages of the S5 frame in a pack----when its go time in a race, it simply won’t matter whether you have saved a watt or two b/c of any slight aero advantage you may have over the other riders—MOST typical amateur bike races aren’t won or lost b/c of 1-2 watts that might have been gained (and like the wheel analogy,** if the frame is that much faster than the rest in the pack, you are going to be braking more anyway, completely negating any watt gain you just “earned”).** Crits are even worse from an “aero-need” standpoint. Just look at the typical sawtooth of watts from a crit race—between the out-of-corner accelerations and the relatively short time frame that most crits run (45-90 min), aside from the breakaway scenarios, your performance & placing in crits has as much to do with your bike handling skills, w/kg, recovery ability, etc. I would put aero WAY down the list of “needs” when evaluating my theoretical crit/road racing “wants”.
Now, getting back to me, and my “wants” in a road bike–its been touched on, but for me personally I need to be able to get low–I’m 6’3, an ex-swimmer, and built more like a NFL tight-end than a Contador. Every additional inch that I’m upright is at least 15-30 watts more that I have to put out to hold speed. The S series simply doesn’t work for me b/c of the relatively tall head tube. A friend has an S3–I’ve ridden it–and it simply doesn’t work for me, the same way that the Specialized SL3 doesn’t work for me. Touching on the SL3 for a moment b/c it also relates to the overall “feel” of the bike that I personally value VERY highly—the SL3 should have been the “perfect” bike for me. I value stiffness in the BB. I value a tighter cockpit. However the SL3 was a disaster–like riding a piece of wood. Just zero enjoyment, not to mention a too high front end. I was measurably slower on the SL3 (well not “measurably”–lets just say that I was hanging on vs comfortably pulling in the local weekly WC’s). Feel of a bike matters. It matters for enjoyment of riding (which should lead to more training, which is MUCH more important than aero). It matters for matters of confidence—descending GMR or any of the other local San Gabriel mountain roads, having ultimate confidence in the handling, tracking & line of my bike is key. I got rid of a Time RXR that I LOVED on the flats, b/c at 42mph it got a case of the shakes that was scary. I look at the geometry of the S5 and I just know that it isn’t going to work for me—yes, maybe I can get a pretty close fit to what currently “works” for me, but its going to require a -17 degree stem, and in my experience, especially on descents & tight turns, that does not lend to my personal confidence in the bike. And for me, personally, confidence in my bike & its feel far outweigh any miniscule advantage an aero frame may have—especially for the type of riding/racing that I do.
Do you see the contradiction between the bolded statements arguing against aero frames and wheels, but for aero positioning? You say aero doesn’t matter in a road race, but you also seem to understand that putting out less wattage to maintain speed is a benefit. Why do you shun the 30 watt benefit of an aero frame, but accept the benefit of a more aero position? Aero advantages aren’t always about being able to go off the front in a solo break (I realize that you likely grasp this concept, I’m just making a point). A saved watt is a saved watt whether it’s saved in a breakaway or putting out less effort sucking wheel all day in the pack (and I don’t know about you, but I tend to put out less watts when I’m braking and coasting all day behind people in a pack. It would be a nice problem to have.)