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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [jackmott] [ In reply to ]
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They don't have to. None of them do, they get paid and have fun and we still watch and all is well.

So because they choose this profession they should be considered unethical cheaters until they can do the impossible, prove their innocent? Come on, that is asinine at best and nobody in a regular profession would stand for it.


As a software developer I would be ok with any rational assumptions being made about my peer group.

I do in fact, drink a lot of caffeine...

Sorry but claiming someone is guilty until they prove something that many will not believe is not rational.

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Why must someone who has never done anything wrong prove he is innocent simply because of his profession?

What do you do for a living? Would you be ok with this standard being used for you?
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [TriUno83] [ In reply to ]
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They deserve the right to have to be proven guilty before they go to jail or lose their job.

They do not deserve the right for the public to think they are clean, before proven guilty.

That is a right they must EARN

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1) What is the percentage of positive results to cyclists?

2) Even if the rate is not the same does that mean that one group (pro athletes) do not deserve the opportunity to have to be proven guilty?
Why must someone who has never done anything wrong prove he is innocent simply because of his profession?

What do you do for a living? Would you be ok with this standard being used for you?

I think jack put it best in another thread, as for the concept of 'Innocent until proven guilty':

This is a concept which americans and others decided to apply as a legal standard.

Not something to regulate opinions.

Would you let an accused, but not yet convicted, child molestor babysit your kids?
Would you be ok with someone saying your babysitter is a child molester because your kids think he/she is a great babysitter? That is a much more apt analogy.
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [zebragonzo] [ In reply to ]
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I don't suppose you've cross referenced numbers against his TT the next day:

No, and I haven't even been tempted to try.

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Is the wattage required to climb like he did sufficient to TT like he did?

That depends on (among other things) his power:CdA in comparison to his power:mass, now doesn't it?
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [scottie18] [ In reply to ]
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They deserve the right to have to be proven guilty before they go to jail or lose their job.

They do not deserve the right for the public to think they are clean, before proven guilty.

That is a right they must EARN

In Reply To:
1) What is the percentage of positive results to cyclists?

2) Even if the rate is not the same does that mean that one group (pro athletes) do not deserve the opportunity to have to be proven guilty?
Why must someone who has never done anything wrong prove he is innocent simply because of his profession?

What do you do for a living? Would you be ok with this standard being used for you?

I think jack put it best in another thread, as for the concept of 'Innocent until proven guilty':

This is a concept which americans and others decided to apply as a legal standard.

Not something to regulate opinions.

Would you let an accused, but not yet convicted, child molestor babysit your kids?
Would you be ok with someone saying your babysitter is a child molester because your kids think he/she is a great babysitter? That is a much more apt analogy.
Actually, wouldn't it be even more appropriate to ask "Would you be ok with someone saying your babysitter is a child molester because your kids think he/she is a great babysitter, given that, historically, a large percentage of babysitters whom children think are great have turned out to be child molesters, either by their own admission or by being definitively caught by law enforcement as such."

"Non est ad astra mollis e terris via." - Seneca | rappstar.com | FB - Rappstar Racing | IG - @jordanrapp
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [Rappstar] [ In reply to ]
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more than that

given that the babysitter union has been caught numerous times not just endorsing child molestation but requiring it in order to be accepted into the union!

and that the leaders of many babysitter rings are admitted molestors.

shit this really drives the point home don't it?

;)



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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [Andrew Coggan] [ In reply to ]
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Is the wattage required to climb like he did sufficient to TT like he did?

That depends on (among other things) his power:CdA in comparison to his power:mass, now doesn't it?

Presumably you've already got his weight and power to do the calcs you did? (Or at least that's how I assume the equation goes?) I was just wondering if there was an estimate of his CdA already out there that could be used.

If not, then knowing weight, power & course profile, it should be possible to calculate an estimate of CdA I assume which in turn will give an idea of how realistic his performance was.
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [zebragonzo] [ In reply to ]
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He's on roids, did you see all that roid rage, back handing all the fans around him.



















Just kidding, but he should gain a little more respect for the fans even though they do some times get a little close. I know someone will bring up LA and the Live Clean Devil at ToC, but that guy deserved it.
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [zebragonzo] [ In reply to ]
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Is the wattage required to climb like he did sufficient to TT like he did?

That depends on (among other things) his power:CdA in comparison to his power:mass, now doesn't it?

Presumably you've already got his weight and power to do the calcs you did? (Or at least that's how I assume the equation goes?) I was just wondering if there was an estimate of his CdA already out there that could be used.

If not, then knowing weight, power & course profile, it should be possible to calculate an estimate of CdA I assume which in turn will give an idea of how realistic his performance was.

W/kg estimates from VAM are not a good marker for "suspicious" performance (given the range in power estimates due to various assumptions required, e.g. gradient, speed, wind, pacing etc - on a climb these matter a lot for estimating power/interpreting VAM). Nevertheless, as far as I can tell, the range of W/kg I calculated includes a sizeable chunk well within the category of performances plausible for a clean world class pro cyclist.

W/CdA estimates from TTs would be even less reliable as far as assessing "clean performance plausibility" given the greater number of variables that can affect TT speed. e.g. he might be exceptionally slippery through the air, the air density might be very low, wind conditions favourable, extra (and extra close) motorbike pacing him etc - none of which require doping.

Let's say he does 400W. To be world class TT rider we are talking >= 2000 W/m^2. At 400W that's a CdA <= 0.20m^2. I coach an amateur athlete of similar size to Contador, and with only the equipment he owned or borrowed and no wind tunnel testing, we got him to a CdA of ~0.185m^2 (on a track bike so add a bit for dereilleur, brakes etc). Let's not forget the Tour's final ITT had a Cat 3 climb as well. So on that basis I'd say his performance is entirely plausible for a clean world classs pro cyclist.

None of this proves anything about a rider's doping status, either way.

Any estimation of physiological output for a world class athlete from VAM or TT speed, by definition, will produce a range of possible outcomes (W/kg or W/CdA or watts or VO2 or whatever) that spans the entirely plausible to implausible, simply because of:
(i) the imprecision in the assumptions used to estimate such output (i.e. we simply don't/can't know all the variables) and
(ii) the fact that they are world class, i.e. they are already close to the "edge of implausibility" (whether clean or doped).

Edited for a typo.

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Last edited by: Alex Simmons: Jul 27, 09 3:28
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [zebragonzo] [ In reply to ]
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Or you could just look at the average speed (50.1km/h) which is fast, but not unheard of.

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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [Alex Simmons] [ In reply to ]
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Thanks for the summary Alex.

I think that the most likely thing for me to believe that he is clean is signing with Garmin though.
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [Alex Simmons] [ In reply to ]
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If not, then knowing weight, power & course profile, it should be possible to calculate an estimate of CdA I assume which in turn will give an idea of how realistic his performance was.

W/CdA estimates from TTs would be even less reliable as far as assessing "clean performance plausibility" given the greater number of variables that can affect TT speed. e.g. he might be exceptionally slippery through the air, the air density might be very low, wind conditions favourable, extra (and extra close) motorbike pacing him etc - none of which require doping.

Right. Contador's first few split times only seemed remarkable because it wasn't clear that the wind had changed. Here's the overall split by the southbound (outbound) leg vs. the northbound (inbound) leg (top decile individually labeled):



However, the effect of the wind on those splits becomes clearer if you plot the ratio of outbound/inbound speeds against the start order (same top decile labeled):



Even holding their overall total time constant, the last 10 or 15 riders obviously experienced a stronger tailwind on the outbound leg (headwind on the inbound leg) than earlier riders. Taking the wind into consideration, Contador's TT doesn't seem quite so superhuman as the early time checks seemed to imply. As an aside, Armstrong had the largest deviation in average speed between the outbound and inbound legs of any rider.
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [RChung] [ In reply to ]
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Here's some corroborating evidence for a substantial wind shift around 3pm local time (weather station around 10km from the start/finish line and at the same elevation):

http://www.wunderground.com/...day=23&year=2009
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [rmur] [ In reply to ]
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Here's some corroborating evidence for a substantial wind shift around 3pm local time (weather station around 10km from the start/finish line and at the same elevation):

http://www.wunderground.com/...day=23&year=2009

Whoa. Very cool.
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [RChung] [ In reply to ]
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Here's some corroborating evidence for a substantial wind shift around 3pm local time (weather station around 10km from the start/finish line and at the same elevation):

http://www.wunderground.com/...day=23&year=2009

Whoa. Very cool.

Gotta love weatherunderground.com :-)

http://bikeblather.blogspot.com/
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [Tom A.] [ In reply to ]
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Weather Underground is notorious for being wrong.

Rap- That might be a better analogy but it still doesn't change the fact that it is pathetic assuming someone is guilty for being good at their job. I also find it shocking that you, a pro triathlete if I am not mistaken, is ok with the "guilty and never being innocent no matter what" attitude.
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [scottie18] [ In reply to ]
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Weather Underground is notorious for being wrong.



I take the "personal weather station" data with a fairly hefty dose of salt...but that weather data linked above is from an official weather station at an airport.

http://bikeblather.blogspot.com/
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [scottie18] [ In reply to ]
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Weather Underground is notorious for being wrong.

Perhaps, but I had done the outbound/inbound comparison way before I'd ever seen the weather underground report, so it's only confirming something that was already clear from an independent analysis.
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [Rappstar] [ In reply to ]
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From Science of Sport's analysis of Contador's climb: http://www.sportsscientists.com/...-contador-climb.html

He has the highest VAM ever recorded in the Tour. What is disturbing to me is the last time this happened - last year - it was Ricardo Ricco, who then immediately got popped for CERA. 2nd on the list below Contador is Riis, who admitted to taking EPO in the 96 TdF. Below him are several performances from Pantani, who had a less than stellar track record regarding drugs, both PED and otherwise.

Does anyone else find this really, really disturbing? I actually find this surprisingly supportive of the "Lance is clean" argument, since his best performance - which was in the 2004 Alpe d'Huez TIME TRIAL, when they ONLY did the Alpe climb, nothing else, no hard lead in, etc. - is 8th on the list. EIGHTH! For a sub-1hr time trial effort.

I'm a Contador fan, in that I just like to see someone who is clearly at the top of their game. But this just doesn't sit well with me.


In light of the "tainted meat from Spain", what do we now think about this thread?
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]
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I have moved on.... The guy is a cheating bastard...
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]
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In light of the "tainted meat from Spain", what do we now think about this thread?
I'm pretty happy with the "wind shifted during the TT" analysis.
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [Pedalsaurus-Tex] [ In reply to ]
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I have moved on.... The guy is a cheating bastard...

That's what I said about Lance in 2004.
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [FastandFun] [ In reply to ]
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Basically can be said for any top GC rider.

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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [RChung] [ In reply to ]
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I'm with Rappstar on this.. apply Occam's Razor to this one.
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [OptimusPrime] [ In reply to ]
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I think looking back through the entire thread provides an entertaining read given the current knowledge of the "tainted meat" scandal (preceded a few years back by Operation Puerto)
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [mcycle] [ In reply to ]
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mcycle wrote:
GL: What wattage was he doing? I would look more at wattage because the rate of vertical ascent could vary so much depending on the pavement. Wattage is the ultimate truth. You know I'm very controversial because I think that you have to look at numbers.
My wattage, relative to VO2 Max...a VO2 Max of 92 or 93 in a fully recovered way...I think I was capable of producing 450 to 460 watts. The truth is, even at the Tour de France, my Tour de France climb times up l'Alpe d'Huez yielded a wattage of around 380 and 390. That was the historic norm for Hinault and myself. You've got times going back many, many years. But what was learned recently, in the last 5 years, was that when you start the Tour de France, you start with a normal hematocrit of, say, 45 percent. By the time you finish, it's probably down 10 or 15 percent. Which means my VO2 Max dropped 10 or 15 percent. So that's why I was never producing the same wattage. And then there a lot of other factors that help performance if you've recovered. My last time trial in '89, I averaged about 420, 430 watts, which would match or be slightly down from what my real VO2 Max was.
Of course, in the '90s drugs came on the scene, so the wattages have gone out..

Blast from the past thread I am just reading. I love this quote... Greg Lemond is saying that drugs only came on the scene in the 90s. How droll.

How does Danny Hart sit down with balls that big?
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