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Is the wattage required to climb like he did sufficient to TT like he did?
That depends on (among other things) his power:CdA in comparison to his power:mass, now doesn't it?
Presumably you've already got his weight and power to do the calcs you did? (Or at least that's how I assume the equation goes?) I was just wondering if there was an estimate of his CdA already out there that could be used.
If not, then knowing weight, power & course profile, it should be possible to calculate an estimate of CdA I assume which in turn will give an idea of how realistic his performance was.
W/kg
estimates from VAM are not a good marker for "suspicious" performance (given the range in power estimates due to various assumptions required, e.g. gradient, speed, wind, pacing etc - on a climb these matter a lot for estimating power/interpreting VAM). Nevertheless, as far as I can tell, the range of W/kg I calculated includes a sizeable chunk well within the category of performances plausible for a clean world class pro cyclist.
W/CdA estimates from TTs would be even less reliable as far as assessing "clean performance plausibility" given the greater number of variables that can affect TT speed. e.g. he might be exceptionally slippery through the air, the air density might be very low, wind conditions favourable, extra (and extra close) motorbike pacing him etc - none of which require doping.
Let's say he does 400W. To be world class TT rider we are talking >= 2000 W/m^2. At 400W that's a CdA <= 0.20m^2. I coach an amateur athlete of similar size to Contador, and with only the equipment he owned or borrowed and no wind tunnel testing, we got him to a CdA of ~0.185m^2 (on a track bike so add a bit for dereilleur, brakes etc). Let's not forget the Tour's final ITT had a Cat 3 climb as well. So on that basis I'd say his performance is entirely plausible for a clean world classs pro cyclist.
None of this proves anything about a rider's doping status, either way.
Any
estimation of physiological output for a world class athlete from VAM or TT speed, by definition, will produce a range of possible outcomes (W/kg or W/CdA or watts or VO2 or whatever) that spans the entirely plausible to implausible, simply because of:
(i) the imprecision in the assumptions used to estimate such output (i.e. we simply don't/can't know all the variables) and
(ii) the fact that they are world class, i.e. they are already close to the "edge of implausibility" (whether clean or doped).
Edited for a typo.
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