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Re: What FTP can be expected from the average Joe? [MikeyT] [ In reply to ]
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I agree.

FTP is just a number, useful for tracking your own fitness, but not so much for comparing athletes.

Also very useful for selling books, power meters, and coaching plans...


Coach at KonaCoach Multisport
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Re: What FTP can be expected from the average Joe? [gbot] [ In reply to ]
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I think you've got it backwards. W/kg is more useful to talk about since it corrects for body mass. If I'm 250lbs and have an ftp of 300, that's not really anything to write home about and I'm likely not setting the world on fire with my cycling. On the other hand if I have that same 300 ftp at 140lbs, I'm likely firmly FOP in triathlon bike splits and even (potentially) quite competitive in amateur bike racing.


Everything within reason, I agree that if I had to choose either one or the other, W/Kg would be a more useful metric to me than overall FTP. I never said that FTP was more important than W/Kg, in fact that my point was that it is not very meaningful to draw conclusions without having both.

Perhaps its just N=1 here, but I'm fairly sure I have higher W/Kg than most of the guys I ride with who routinely make me suffer when we are riding on the flats. When we he hit hills I can often cruise by when these same people are grimmacing and get spit off my wheel. Right back into the flats and its back to working hard for me, terrain makes a huge difference. Body composition (very important for raw power versus W/kg) will always be dependent on the type of racing you do and your goals. Look at Cancellara (180lbs, god knows what FTP) versus Andy Schleck (140lbs, sky-high W/Kg), both suited to very different styles of riding.
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Re: What FTP can be expected from the average Joe? [MikeyT] [ In reply to ]
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Right...so anyone who's using a 20 minute test to get their FTP is using the wrong test and overestimating their FTP...I've seen something written that the best way to derive FTP from a 20 minute test is to multiply CP20 by .85...or just get after it for an hour


I don't think anyone (who knows what they are doing at least) is using their max 20 min power for their FTP. There are many ways given by various coaches out there to estimate your FTP, including as you mentioned multipling an all out 20 min effort by a scaling factor. However, I think a much more common approach would be to do the 2x20' (2') approach, among others.
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Re: What FTP can be expected from the average Joe? [Canadian] [ In reply to ]
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Watts are watts, and power is power, and body mass matters.

W/KG matters a whole lot more when going uphill.

Pure watts/power matters a whole lot more than w/kg in flat races.

I'm 95kg, and my FTP is 345, giving me a 3.6 w/kg. Solid Cat 4 #s. However in a flat TT I'm putting up times/#s near the front of the Cat 3 pack. In a climbing TT I'm near the bottom of the Cat 4s, and I consider myself a fairly decent climber. I can crush some guys in a 20 min climb that would destroy me in a 2 hour climb. Efficiency matters. There is no magic bullet or formula---depending on what type of race/event you want to focus on should dictate your training much more than simply pursuing the 4.0 w/k. If you are looking at crits, your recovery ability & building your 30-60 sec power (sprint) is much more important than your ability to hold 4.0 w/k for 60 min. If you are racing an IM, your ability to effectively TT at .70 IF w/minimal effort is much more important than your ability to generate 1500 watts. Its almost impossible, without YEARS of volume riding, to do everything well (i.e. pointy end of the spear). The question you shouldn't be asking yourself is how do I get to 4.0, but rather what do I need to do within my life constraints to get to the pointy end of my age group/racing cat/weight class in my chosen sport/event & then train accordingly.

____________
"There are two novels that can change a bookish fourteen-year old's life: The Lord of the Rings and Atlas Shrugged. One is a childish fantasy that often engenders a lifelong obsession with its unbelievable heroes, leading to an emotionally stunted, socially crippled adulthood, unable to deal with the real world. The other, of course, involves orcs." John Rogers
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Re: What FTP can be expected from the average Joe? [mopdahl] [ In reply to ]
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Watts are watts, and power is power, and body mass matters.

W/KG matters a whole lot more when going uphill.

Pure watts/power matters a whole lot more than w/kg in flat races.


Yes, that's why little ol' me made it up to cat. 1 in the crit-centric midwest despite having a functional threshold power in my youth no greater than yours.
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Re: What FTP can be expected from the average Joe? [Canadian] [ In reply to ]
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Let's do some figgerin'...

The average healthy but sedentary, college-aged male has a VO2max of approximately 45 mL/min/kg. However, I have seen it argued based on studies of, e.g., aboriginal tribes (and there are population data from Europe as well as military inductees here in the US to suppor the conclusion) that the "default" VO2max of the average human male is closer to 50 mL/min/kg, and the only way to get below this is to assume a couch-potato lifestyle, gain excess weight, etc. (and/or grow old, of course). So, I'll go with that latter number.

With short-term training, VO2max increases by 15-25% on average, with another perhaps 5-10% possible (on average, anyway) with more prolonged and/or intense training. That gives a total increase of 20-35%, so I'll go with 30% just for argument's sake.

So, if VO2max is, on average, 50 mL/min/kg and increases by, on average, 30%, that means that the average Joe ought to be able to raise their VO2max to about 65 mL/min/kg with training. Indeed, there are many, many, many, MANY amateur endurance athletes with VO2max values of around that number (not to mention the fact that athletes in team sports with an endurance component - e.g., soccer - often have a VO2max of around 60 mL/min/kg, something that is also true in other sports that you don't normally consider to be of an endurance nature, e.g., downhill skiing or motocross - i.e., motorcycle - racing).

The question then becomes, how high might functional threshold power fall as a percentage of VO2max (again, on average), and what does this translate to in terms of a power output? The answer to the former is about 80% (LT, on average, being about 75% of VO2max in trained cyclists), which means that in terms of O2 consumption, a functional threshold power corresponding to a VO2 of 65 mL/min/kg * 0.80 = 52 mL/min/kg could be considered average. If you then assume an average cycling economy of 0.075 W/min/kg per mL/min/kg, this equates to...

3.9 W/kg
Last edited by: Andrew Coggan: May 18, 10 9:12
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Re: What FTP can be expected from the average Joe? [Andrew Coggan] [ In reply to ]
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So anybody can make it to 4, 4.5, or 5w/kg with a little training, according to this thread.

Here's one Cat 1, State Champion, National Medallist that disagrees. Been busting my ass for years and happy to finally be over 4w/kg.

Either somebody needs to look at a large sampling of power data, or you all need to calibrate your PMs.
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Re: What FTP can be expected from the average Joe? [RebeccaCreekKid] [ In reply to ]
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So anybody can make it to 4, 4.5, or 5w/kg with a little training, according to this thread.


Apparently you didn't read what I wrote. The calculations that I laid out indicate that the average person could NOT make it (much) over 4 W/kg even after years of dedicated training.

In Reply To:
Here's one Cat 1, State Champion, National Medallist that disagrees.


What event(s)?

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Either somebody needs to look at a large sampling of power data, or you all need to calibrate your PMs.


So just out of curiousity, when was the last time that you calibrated yours?
Last edited by: Andrew Coggan: May 18, 10 8:59
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Re: What FTP can be expected from the average Joe? [Andrew Coggan] [ In reply to ]
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AC,

What does this mean in the real world?

If you were to take 100 subjects who were able to achieve 3.9W/kg based on a 2 x 20' test and have them do a 40K TT, what do you think their avg. power would be in W/kg? And what type of variation in speed do you guess you might see?


Coach at KonaCoach Multisport
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Re: What FTP can be expected from the average Joe? [TriSmarter] [ In reply to ]
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If you were to draw a bell curve here on ST around Power at FTP , I think the fat part of the curve would be around 250W.
Taking a less well founded guess , I'll pick 175lbs as an average weight for the guys, or about 80kg.

That works out to 3.125 W/Kg.

I think if you put someone with that profile on a Professional style program without work, family, etc demands.
you could get that FTP up to 300, and the weight down to 75kg, and there is your 4 W/Kg. That is a 20% improvement in power...
not a no-brainer, but doesn't seem ridiculous.

For myself, I know I could probably stand to lose 8-10Kg if I dedicated myself to a diet (that would get me back to High School weight)
and would be in the 4w/kg range.

It also depends what you mean about 'Average Joe' however - I think the Average ST reader is already at the upper 5-10% fitness wise
of the population as a whole. I think if you threw a dart a phone book, there would be a lot smaller % who could get to that level.

.

" I take my gear out of my car and put my bike together. Tourists and locals are watching from sidewalk cafes. Non-racers. The emptiness of of their lives shocks me. "
(opening lines from Tim Krabbe's The Rider , 1978
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Re: What FTP can be expected from the average Joe? [Terra-Man] [ In reply to ]
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If you were to take 100 subjects who were able to achieve 3.9W/kg based on a 2 x 20' test

Meaning that they could routinely average 3.9 W/kg during long intervals done in training?

In Reply To:
and have them do a 40K TT, what do you think their avg. power would be in W/kg?

If the answer to my question above is yes, then 3.9 W/kg.

In Reply To:
And what type of variation in speed do you guess you might see?

That would depend on their sizes, positions, equipment, course conditions, etc.
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Re: What FTP can be expected from the average Joe? [Andrew Coggan] [ In reply to ]
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VO2 of 65 mL/min/kg

pretty inspiring to know our potential is about a 2:35ish marathon.
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Re: What FTP can be expected from the average Joe? [SeasonsChange] [ In reply to ]
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Or the exact opposite :)
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Re: What FTP can be expected from the average Joe? [Andrew Coggan] [ In reply to ]
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Hi Andy,

I posted before your response was up; wouldn't begin to consider contradicting The Man Who Wrote the Book... Twice. But I do feel free to freely question most of the other posters. In God we trust, all others bring data, right? Thank you for bringing data.

Road, Crit & Track, respectively

My unit is probably due for a little trip to South Dakota, (although it is in very close agreement with a CT factory calibrated 2 weeks ago) but I do calibrate (sorry, zero offset) with the Garmin before every ride, and try to pedal the wrong direction at least 4 times a couple of times per ride.
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Re: What FTP can be expected from the average Joe? [RebeccaCreekKid] [ In reply to ]
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I posted before your response was up

Odd, then, that your reply indicates that it is in response to mine. Quirck of how the software works, perhaps?

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I do feel free to freely question most of the other posters. In God we trust, all others bring data, right?

Oh, sure, and thanks for answering my questions.
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Re: What FTP can be expected from the average Joe? [SeasonsChange] [ In reply to ]
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VO2 of 65 mL/min/kg

pretty inspiring to know our potential is about a 2:35ish marathon.


Objection, Your Honor, assuming facts* not in evidence. ;-)

*That the average person can achieve a high enough LT and running economy to translate that VO2 into the stated performance. Since, e.g., Daniel's VDOT tables are based on data from trained runners, that assumption may not be correct.
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Re: What FTP can be expected from the average Joe? [Andrew Coggan] [ In reply to ]
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Time stamp on your post is 8:52, and 8:57 on mine.

It's entirely possible that I did a 5 minute post split, especially since there was a trip in there to the kitchen for more Coffees of Hawaii and a poppy seed kolache*

Besides, you are further east than me. ;-)
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Re: What FTP can be expected from the average Joe? [RebeccaCreekKid] [ In reply to ]
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It could also be a difference between threaded view and flat view....
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Re: What FTP can be expected from the average Joe? [Andrew Coggan] [ In reply to ]
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Apparently you didn't read what I wrote. The calculations that I laid out indicate that the average person could NOT make it (much) over 4 W/kg even after years of dedicated training.


That is the kicker, after reading your post the first time I thought that you were inferring that the average trained athlete should have a W/kg of 3.9 which seems high to me. However after re-reading, the difference between has and could have is duly noted.

As always, thanks for a very informative post.
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Re: What FTP can be expected from the average Joe? [Andrew Coggan] [ In reply to ]
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Yes, that's why little ol' me made it up to cat. 1 in the crit-centric midwest despite having a functional threshold power in my youth no greater than yours.

There are a bunch of Cat 1 & 2s that I ride with frequently out here. I can TT a couple of them into the ground. They can leave me behind in a sprint like a Camaro vs a Yugo. They do very, very well in crits, but frequently get dropped in RR. Its all relative when considering the specialties/strengths of each rider & the events/distances/etc they are focusing on. Bradley Wiggins didn't change into a TDF contender overnight. Of course a certain mix of the right genes certainly helps.


____________
"There are two novels that can change a bookish fourteen-year old's life: The Lord of the Rings and Atlas Shrugged. One is a childish fantasy that often engenders a lifelong obsession with its unbelievable heroes, leading to an emotionally stunted, socially crippled adulthood, unable to deal with the real world. The other, of course, involves orcs." John Rogers
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Re: What FTP can be expected from the average Joe? [Andrew Coggan] [ In reply to ]
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In Reply To:
Let's do some figgerin'...

The average healthy but sedentary, college-aged male has a VO2max of approximately 45 mL/min/kg. However, I have seen it argued based on studies of, e.g., aboriginal tribes (and there are population data from Europe as well as military inductees here in the US to suppor the conclusion) that the "default" VO2max of the average human male is closer to 50 mL/min/kg, and the only way to get below this is to assume a couch-potato lifestyle, gain excess weight, etc. (and/or grow old, of course). So, I'll go with that latter number.

With short-term training, VO2max increases by 15-25% on average, with another perhaps 5-10% possible (on average, anyway) with more prolonged and/or intense training. That gives a total increase of 20-35%, so I'll go with 30% just for argument's sake.

So, if VO2max is, on average, 50 mL/min/kg and increases by, on average, 30%, that means that the average Joe ought to be able to raise their VO2max to about 65 mL/min/kg with training. Indeed, there are many, many, many, MANY amateur endurance athletes with VO2max values of around that number (not to mention the fact that athletes in team sports with an endurance component - e.g., soccer - often have a VO2max of around 60 mL/min/kg, something that is also true in other sports that you don't normally consider to be of an endurance nature, e.g., downhill skiing or motocross - i.e., motorcycle - racing).

The question then becomes, how high might functional threshold power fall as a percentage of VO2max (again, on average), and what does this translate to in terms of a power output? The answer to the former is about 80% (LT, on average, being about 75% of VO2max in trained cyclists), which means that in terms of O2 consumption, a functional threshold power corresponding to a VO2 of 65 mL/min/kg * 0.80 = 52 mL/min/kg could be considered average. If you then assume an average cycling economy of 0.075 W/min/kg per mL/min/kg, this equates to...

3.9 W/kg

Wow. Thanks. Great response. I was hoping you would chime in. One last question.

You said the average college male has a VO2 of approximately 45-50. For the gifted ones (people with higher trained VO2), do they test higher initially when untrained, or do they just make better than average gains? For example, a 40% increase instead of the average 30% increase.

Thanks again for chiming in!


Chris Thornham
Co-Founder And Previous Owner Of FLO Cycling
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Re: What FTP can be expected from the average Joe? [mopdahl] [ In reply to ]
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Yes, that's why little ol' me made it up to cat. 1 in the crit-centric midwest despite having a functional threshold power in my youth no greater than yours.

There are a bunch of Cat 1 & 2s that I ride with frequently out here. I can TT a couple of them into the ground. They can leave me behind in a sprint like a Camaro vs a Yugo. They do very, very well in crits, but frequently get dropped in RR.

That isn't (wasn't) me. In fact, I am (was) just the opposite, i.e., far more likely to get results in road races and TTs than in criteriums. Yet, with a functional threshold power of only ~350 W, I made it up to cat. 1, won my fair share of state championships, etc. Why? Because I only weighed/weigh 67-68 kg, and therefore not only didn't have to accelerate as much mass coming out of corners, also didn't have to push as much air out of the way...

Bottom line: size matters, even on flat courses...when looking across the population as a whole, expressing power in W/kg is therefore more telling than expressing it as just W.
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Re: What FTP can be expected from the average Joe? [Canadian] [ In reply to ]
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[One last question.

You said the average college male has a VO2 of approximately 45-50. For the gifted ones (people with higher trained VO2), do they test higher initially when untrained, or do they just make better than average gains?

Both baseline VO2max and trainability of VO2max have a genetic component, which accounts for ~50% of the variation between individuals.

The interesting thing is, the two seem to be determined by different sets of genes. Ergo, it pays to pick your parents doubly-wisely if you want to be an elite endurance athlete.
Last edited by: Andrew Coggan: May 18, 10 10:49
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Re: What FTP can be expected from the average Joe? [SeasonsChange] [ In reply to ]
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VO2 of 65 mL/min/kg

pretty inspiring to know our potential is about a 2:35ish marathon.


Ironically, I have been told by a number of running coaches that "talent" doesn't really factor into performance until about 2:45ish marathon (for males), so perhaps not all that far off. The reality is very few of us are willing to put in the work to reach our potential.
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Re: What FTP can be expected from the average Joe? [Matafan] [ In reply to ]
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"4W/Kg is more "average amateur" than "local pro" for a triathlete."

Define "average" please. I'm a ~4W/Kg guy and I race elite/open state and local races to top-5 or better finishes. I raced to the 8th fastest bike split at a recent 1/2 IM. Certainly, there are stronger amateur triathlete cyclists out there....but they are few and far between these days. If that is your definition of "average"...then so be it.

I would put the "average joe" capability at less than 4W/kg, mostly because of how lean that usually means you have to be. Few "average joes" are going to be willing or able to get lean enough to max their W/Kg equation...but they may develop a fairly high absolute FTP figure that would serve them well in flatter races (as long as they are reasonably aerodynamic).

I will definitely agree that 4W/Kg is way low for "local pro"...unless we're talking about women. The few "local pro" triathlete types I've known were more in the 4.5W/Kg range if they had any kind of cycling ability. More if they wanted to be competitive in a strong pro field.
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