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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [mlinenb] [ In reply to ]
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This is an interesting historical chart- and backgroup on the performances
http://www.sportsscientists.com/...power-estimates.html

Ummm...I'd be careful with drawing any conclusions based on that "analysis" or that chart.

The power values "estimated" that form the basis of that analysis (by a Mr. Vayer) haven't been shown to be exactly...ummm, reliable. Not to mention the assumptions made by Vayer, and also Mr. LeMond, about the correlation between VO2max and FTP. Just ask Mr. Chung ;-)

http://bikeblather.blogspot.com/
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [Tom A.] [ In reply to ]
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This is an interesting historical chart- and backgroup on the performances
http://www.sportsscientists.com/...power-estimates.html

Ummm...I'd be careful with drawing any conclusions based on that "analysis" or that chart.

The power values "estimated" that form the basis of that analysis (by a Mr. Vayer) haven't been shown to be exactly...ummm, reliable. Not to mention the assumptions made by Vayer, and also Mr. LeMond, about the correlation between VO2max and FTP. Just ask Mr. Chung ;-)
Ferrari's been estimating VAM and he's seen the power data of many of his riders from their top performances over the years- so I would trust his data (which is very close to Mr. Vayer's data). I think Ferrari know's Lance's data better than anyone here ;) But you can feel free to armchair it otherwise ;)

http://www.53x12.com/...epth.view&id=104

Performances at the Tour 2009
By: Michele Ferrari
Published: 19 Jul 2009

On the ascent to Verbier (638m of difference in height at 7.5%) Alberto Contador (62kg) climbed at 1852 m/h, equal to 6.73 w/kg, developing an average of 417w.

Lance Armstrong (72 kg) climbed at 1720 m/h, equal to 6.25 w/kg, developing 450w.

The difference between their VAM's is 7.4% in favor of Alberto, while Lance, whose body weight is 16% heavier, pushed 8% more watts: a suggestion that in the upcoming time trial in Annecy it could be a very close and uncertain duel.

In Arcalis (751m of ascent at 7.1%) Contador climbed at 1671 m/h, equal to 6.18 w/kg, with Armstrong and all the other best riders at 1649 m/h (6.10 w/kg); but in the last couple of km Alberto had already showed a power that was 7.2% superior to his rivals'.
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [mlinenb] [ In reply to ]
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Maybe this was pointed out, but the chart is an apples oranges comparison in the sense that most of the climbs, save the rare time trials, are not balls out from the bottom. One team typically sets tempo, but on yesterday's stage even Armstrong said that right from the base the pace was so severe that even the best climbers were red lined. Add to that a short climb where a climber like AC can still find an extra gear and hold it, and a tailwind, and some of the other factors mentioned, and I'm not surprised at the numbers.

On the other hand, Contador's climb, while spectacular, was no more impressive than Pantani's flyer up Alpe Duez, or even some of Armstrong's better climbs. Sastre had a climb almost as impressive as Contador's, coming from a bit back to pass nearly everyone.

I think you guys make way too much of this. Are the top riders on something? No way of knowing, especially if it's their own blood they are transfusing. Until proven guilty, I'll give them all the benefit of the doubt. If you don't, you will wrongly implicate the clean riders, and that is worse than letting the bad ones get away with it (just barely).
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [Tom A.] [ In reply to ]
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that VO2 Max comment by Lemond didn't sound right... I know cycling is not a skill sport as the contact points of the bike pretty much force you to do it correctly, but I remember back to a comment by someone who noted that Frank Shorter or some old school marathoner won an Olympic gold medal with a much lower VO2 Max than the 2nd place guy... basically saying that efficiency was better for Shorter (or whoever it was).

Does this apply in cycling too?

No doubt Lemond is mixing his acronyms he's such a dinosaur.

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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [mlinenb] [ In reply to ]
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This is an interesting historical chart- and backgroup on the performances
http://www.sportsscientists.com/...power-estimates.html


My general impression is that the authors of that blog are a tad too quick in hitting the "publish" button.
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [irncpl] [ In reply to ]
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not exactly, that is the standard we apply before we put someone in jail.

it is not the standard we apply for casual opinions and discussion

or the standard you would apply if deciding to let an accused child molestor, not yet found guilty, babysit your daughter.

i think top athletes in most sports, have earned the right to be guilty until proven innocent.

its just how people are, and always have been. champion are rarely the idealistic role models we wish they were, they never have been, never will be. champions are people who get it done, often by any means necessary. they always have the good qualities of hard work, never giving up

but they often have the darker side too. cest la vie

cest la tour

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It is no matter how 'disturbed' you might be
by these figures. Fortunately, in most of the societies readers of this forum live in, there are some maxims that apply. Foremost amongst them is that you are Innocent until proven guilty.



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Freelance sports & outdoors writer Kathryn Hunter
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [RChung] [ In reply to ]
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Hmmm. I bet Billy Mills 10K in Tokyo doesn't sit well either. Dude goes through the 5K 1 second off his PR, and holds it for another 5K, beating the world champ, winning the gold medal, and PRing by nearly 2 minutes. Sometimes these guys really are this good. Too bad we now never know if they are legit. That's the real damage that dopers do to sport.
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [Rappstar] [ In reply to ]
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I view this performance with healthy skepticism on two fronts:

1) AC didn't merely set the VAM record, he destroyed it. No matter if the equations are flawed or not or whether the climb was short, he destroyed a record much like Mike Powell did in the long jump and Michael Johnson in the 200 meter dash in 1996.

That said, AC's numbers on, I believe, the Mortirolo in 2008 Giro were off the VAM charts as well. While not record setting, he was climbing with wings 14 months ago.

2) This performance also says to me that Lance Armstrong from any year of his 7 wins couldn't beat AC. Lance's best VAM was from a stand alone TT, not a stage.

Finally, if, as I hope, AC is as clean as a whistle, we could be looking at a rider of historic proportions. Contador is 3 for his last 3 GT's. At 26 he's not even in the 27-33 sweet spot where GT riders normally hit their peak.

So say AC enters two GT's a year for the next 5 years (16 chances counting the Vuelta this year) and he "only" wins 50% of them, he could well wind up with another 8-10 GT victories to go along with the three (possibly four) he already has. That would be a career total of, what, maybe 12 or 14, which is more than Eddy Merckx's 11 total.

Yes, there are a lot of factors involved there, but it is mind-boggling to think of the possibilities.

Bob
Last edited by: Macho Grande: Jul 20, 09 21:50
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [Bum] [ In reply to ]
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Hmmm. I bet Billy Mills 10K in Tokyo doesn't sit well either. Dude goes through the 5K 1 second off his PR, and holds it for another 5K, beating the world champ, winning the gold medal, and PRing by nearly 2 minutes. Sometimes these guys really are this good. Too bad we now never know if they are legit. That's the real damage that dopers do to sport.
Robby Benson is the real dope that did damage to Billy Mills.
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [Rappstar] [ In reply to ]
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  • VAM is a strange measure for such an evil genius like Ferrari
  • Sorensen's FTP is 6.22w/kg and he's not a team leader?! (380/61)
  • Has Lemond ever released some sort of a watts:blood test protocol that would satisfy his scrutiny?
  • Any thought as to what Contador, or the pinnacle of humanity for that matter, should be able to hold in terms of w/kg for a 20' climb?

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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [ericM35-39] [ In reply to ]
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that VO2 Max comment by Lemond didn't sound right... I know cycling is not a skill sport as the contact points of the bike pretty much force you to do it correctly, but I remember back to a comment by someone who noted that Frank Shorter or some old school marathoner won an Olympic gold medal with a much lower VO2 Max than the 2nd place guy... basically saying that efficiency was better for Shorter (or whoever it was).

Does this apply in cycling too?

No doubt Lemond is mixing his acronyms he's such a dinosaur.

Here's one of Mr. Chung's favorite charts on the subject of correlation (or lack thereof) between VO2max and 1 hour average wattage:



http://bikeblather.blogspot.com/
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [Macho Grande] [ In reply to ]
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I would have to agree with you, but only if he has a good team around him. He could end up like Cadel, very good rider, but no team to back him up! I am very curious as to what will happen to Astana, AC, LA, Levi, Kloden, JB and the rest after this tour.

And those Shleck brothers get better every year!


Bike racing is going to be very good for the next 5 years....
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [mlinenb] [ In reply to ]
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Ferrari's been estimating VAM and he's seen the power data of many of his riders from their top performances over the years- so I would trust his data (which is very close to Mr. Vayer's data). I think Ferrari know's Lance's data better than anyone here ;) But you can feel free to armchair it otherwise ;)

Ferrari's a quack...and if his power estimates come close to Vayer's, then that's just more confirmation that his numbers aren't to be believed. But, don't take my word for it, just do the simple calculations yourself. It's just simple physics ;-)

Heck, wasn't it LeMond himself who recently related an incident where he first met Ferrari and was asked what that device was on his bike? And LeMond claims that after telling him it was a power meter, that Ferrari basically looked at him like he didn't comprehend the usefulness?

http://bikeblather.blogspot.com/
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [Macho Grande] [ In reply to ]
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1) AC didn't merely set the VAM record, he destroyed it..... he destroyed a record much like Mike Powell did in the long jump



Don't you mean Bob Beamon? Beamon increased the mark from 8.35 to 8.90. Powell then only raised it to 8.95.
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [Rappstar] [ In reply to ]
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According to Chris Carmichael: "Lance's speed on the climb was close to what he achieved on major summit finishes during the Tours he won, which provides an indication of how powerful and explosive Contador is right now." Interesting....
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [RChung] [ In reply to ]
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Hmmm. I bet Billy Mills 10K in Tokyo doesn't sit well either. Dude goes through the 5K 1 second off his PR, and holds it for another 5K, beating the world champ, winning the gold medal, and PRing by nearly 2 minutes. Sometimes these guys really are this good. Too bad we now never know if they are legit. That's the real damage that dopers do to sport.
Robby Benson is the real dope that did damage to Billy Mills.
Touche' !!!!!
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [Tom A.] [ In reply to ]
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Ferrari's been estimating VAM and he's seen the power data of many of his riders from their top performances over the years- so I would trust his data (which is very close to Mr. Vayer's data).

Ferrari's a quack...and if his power estimates come close to Vayer's, then that's just more confirmation that his numbers aren't to be believed.

My general impression is that Vayer is a tad too quick in hitting the "publish" button.
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [RChung] [ In reply to ]
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I think far too much has been made of this
The Verbier climb has no precendents - if Pantani, Armstrong in his prime had climbed this you would have far better data
As it is, VAM is apples to oranges:
Weather, length of climb, gradient etc
The Verbier stage was much shorter than many of the Hautacam, ADH stages
There was also a rest day the next day, and Contador had to explode to dominate his own team, let alone his rivals

Lastly, you change the scale of the VAM chart and you will see (despite all the caveats above) its actually very close. Say Contador climbs 50metres an hr quicker than Pantani - over 25 min climb he drops him by 20 metres. That is seconds......
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [bespoke] [ In reply to ]
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"over 25 min climb he drops him by 20 metres. That is seconds......"


Hmmmm...methinks your geometry is off.
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [Rappstar] [ In reply to ]
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From Science of Sport's analysis of Contador's climb: http://www.sportsscientists.com/...-contador-climb.html

He has the highest VAM ever recorded in the Tour. What is disturbing to me is the last time this happened - last year - it was Ricardo Ricco, who then immediately got popped for CERA. 2nd on the list below Contador is Riis, who admitted to taking EPO in the 96 TdF. Below him are several performances from Pantani, who had a less than stellar track record regarding drugs, both PED and otherwise.

Does anyone else find this really, really disturbing? I actually find this surprisingly supportive of the "Lance is clean" argument, since his best performance - which was in the 2004 Alpe d'Huez TIME TRIAL, when they ONLY did the Alpe climb, nothing else, no hard lead in, etc. - is 8th on the list. EIGHTH! For a sub-1hr time trial effort.

I'm a Contador fan, in that I just like to see someone who is clearly at the top of their game. But this just doesn't sit well with me.
I said it immediately after seeing that Cobra like performance... JUICE!
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [TriBriGuy] [ In reply to ]
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"over 25 min climb he drops him by 20 metres. That is seconds......"


Hmmmm...methinks your geometry is off.
It's a really steep climb. He did say "drop", didn't he?

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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [aerobike] [ In reply to ]
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Alberto Contadope. I imagine others have made that joke, though.

I still love roid landis and lance pharmstrong.
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [Tom A.] [ In reply to ]
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Ferrari's been estimating VAM and he's seen the power data of many of his riders from their top performances over the years- so I would trust his data (which is very close to Mr. Vayer's data). I think Ferrari know's Lance's data better than anyone here ;) But you can feel free to armchair it otherwise ;)

Ferrari's a quack...and if his power estimates come close to Vayer's, then that's just more confirmation that his numbers aren't to be believed. But, don't take my word for it, just do the simple calculations yourself. It's just simple physics ;-)

Heck, wasn't it LeMond himself who recently related an incident where he first met Ferrari and was asked what that device was on his bike? And LeMond claims that after telling him it was a power meter, that Ferrari basically looked at him like he didn't comprehend the usefulness?
Lemond's claim about powermeter was when he was using an SRM in the early 90s. Ferrari fully understands watts today as a measure of riders capabilities. Ferrari- you might call him a quack- but his riders have the best palmares of the last 2 decades- so he's an extremely effective quack. Lastly- Ferrari, should have tons of power data points- tons of them- for climbs in races, training, etc. So- for him to fairly accurately calculate VAM- knowing the watts riders have actually produced in the past- is not far fetched at all. We (fans) have a handful of data points- like one in 2009 TdF- he might have hundreds... Maybe it's time to see the forest and stop focusing on the tree.
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [aerobike] [ In reply to ]
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According to Chris Carmichael: "Lance's speed on the climb was close to what he achieved on major summit finishes during the Tours he won, which provides an indication of how powerful and explosive Contador is right now." Interesting....

After reading this thread it seems that your attempts to discredit AC have failed again.

It's okay though, Lance will be a great domestique...
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Re: Is Anyone Else Disturbed By This? Re: Contador's Ascent of Verbier [Rappstar] [ In reply to ]
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Nope. Not disturbed by that at all. There's doping in cycling, there's doping in all major sports where there's a paycheck (hell, even on the amatuer ranks as well). We all know this is a fact.

What disturbs me the most are the kids and babies who come to the hospital where I work whose lovely parents decided in a drug fueled haze to beat the piss out if them and turn them into neuro cases, aka "vegetables". That bothers me. Doping in cycling? Not a problem that affects me one bit.


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