Huh. Good question. I'd assume you could sue in U.S. Federal court, but FISA may get in the way unless you could successfully frame your claim(s) as exceptions to immunity under 28 USC 1605(a)(2) (commercial activity that has a direct effect here) and/or (a)(5) (a tort committed here, but then you'd go down the rabbit hole of discretionary decisions and where the tort was committed. Was the decision to build a cheaper booster without a feature to control where it lands a discretionary decision that maintains immunity from suit? Was the tort committed in China by way of defective design (immunity maintained), or was it committed on your property where the damage occurred (exception from immunity)?)

Rabbit holes abound.

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War is god

Without transparency, they could be hiding a lot of failure just like the Soviets. Not that failure is bad, but hiding it is bad. And I just don't think they are capable of innovation like SpaceX. That requires criticism, sometimes of the government, sometimes of top officials, to make rapid progress. That is the opposite of what their system allows.

But like the Soviets, the meat sacks they are sending up are considered by their government more expendable than US/Space X counterparts so they may be able to innovate faster since they don't have to worry about safety and redundant systems.

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Trieatalot

It's a C minus world.

The one big difference is the commercial market is much bigger now. The customers expect safety and redundant systems to protect their assets. Most of the customers also want transparency. The commercial market is going to completely flip to SpaceX if they have a fully reusable rocket. There really is no way to compete with that other than to have a fully reusable rocket and the Chinese are still years away from even the Falcon 9.

I just don't see what the Chinese are innovating at. I see them able to recreate what others have done, but they aren't doing anything new. Seems like they are just using versions of soviet designs. Whereas we have SpaceX, Blue Origin and other smaller players doing truly innovative things with completely fresh designs.

Speaking of innovation, it may be happening right now. When I see the Chinese doing crazy stuff like this, then I'll believe they are in the game.

https://www.youtube.com/...el=EverydayAstronaut

So this is where some of my paranoia comes into play. They will not be able to compete in the commercial lift market (unless N. Korea is going to be paying for payloads), there's not much profit to be made in basic scientific research, and they are behind in many other "firsts". What if they are up there doing crazy particle physics research that results in the creation of a micro black hole that dooms us all? What other types of research would benefit the ruling elite?

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Trieatalot

It's a C minus world.

To develop that crazy stuff, you need outside the box thinkers. The kind that usually are unconventional and quirky. Independent thinkers. That kind that usually get weeded out of the Communist system. Example, Jack Ma.

Improving tinfoil production.

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War is god

Canada, obviously.

amid all the smart posts on this thread -- seriously the horsepower is super impressive . . .

is anyone else old enough to remember Skylab?

for some reason it *terrified* me as a little kid. Obsessive worry for a couple days.

this time, meh -- it's coming down somewhere.

I'm fascinated that with all the physics we know, we can't make a prediction more accurate to a couple of hours, or where it's going to land. I've been following this story with great interest. It sounds right now like there are going to be some surprised fish.

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maybe she's born with it, maybe it's chlorine
If you're injured and need some sympathy, PM me and I'm very happy to write back.
disclaimer: PhD not MD

I have read little but got the impression that as this thing tumble falls, it presents an unpredictable drag hence the time and place unknowns.

The tumbling plus there is a lot of uncertainty about the density of the atmosphere 100-200 kms up. And a small amount of difference in density can lead to uncertainty of when the atmosphere will really start to bite and pull it in. Add to that the body is traveling at 17,000 mph so a difference of 10 minutes means it coming down on the west or east coast of US.

Can't we just get Israel to shoot it down with one of their space lasers?

Basically this:



The fact is that the small uncertainties, like altitude, velocity, density of the atmosphere at different locations, drag, lift, etc, result in vastly different outcomes. The fact is there are so many unknowns in this situation, from uncertainty in the things like orbital parameters (all measurements have uncertainties) to the aerodynamics of the body in the thin atmosphere, just result in vastly different outcomes. Everyone knows they don't have the right measurements, so they know they models have large variances in the outcomes.

And there is the whole layer of only small group is really qualified to do the forecasting here. And not all of them have the best data available to them.

I am not sure that the system is truly chaotic, like the three body problem as an example, but it clearly does not converge very neatly.

Also, if you want to get regular updates, you can check for them here
Right now predicted to come in around 11:30 PM East Coast time, probably in the south Pacific.

I doubt the Chinese are being forthcoming with information about their booster as well. If you don't know the mass of the object or the physical makeup such as precise shape or composition, then it will make modeling that much more difficult.

And the answer is "probably the ocean", even with the incomplete data.

Ya’ll have nothing to worry about. With my luck, it’ll land on my truck.

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"When the power of love overcomes the love of power the world will know peace." Jimi Hendrix