I can't even keep track of the denials on here, but we've gone from 30 inpatients August 1st to 140-ish today.......... France

You could know. You can look it up yourself.

I told you a few pages back that he is making some major errors or lying, and showed why.

Confirmation bias is a helluva drug.

Some people want it over with so badly that they simply search for data to convince themselves that it's "not that bad". They also ignore the fact that as people were dying left and right in the spring, testing was still being ramped up (chart of Spain testing below). The case load was likely MUCH higher than the charts display for that time.

BTW, Spain is now experiencing 200 deaths per day after having very few at the end of August. There's your lagging indicator...

This, as if we're now seeing more positives a day than we were in March........ Unlikely but it is going the wrong way at the moment.

Ah. Agree on hammering, our cases of reported covid-deaths have been/are immensly higher than what-should-be comparable countries.

But I should have bolded the text better. Swedes behaviour did change in spite of their government not because of it

I have only anecdotal information based on my own experience from being here, but have you seen data/results of investigations that indicate that claim? It is not the perception I have, but I can only use my experience based on my interactions with a limited set of people, ie. the ones closest to me.

The best data is the economic hit data I've seen. GDP was down less than 10% year on year, that indicates a change in behaviour but is nowhere near the hit anyone else in EU has suffered.

So I meant at a macro level clearly economic activity changed so some behaviours underpinning that changed to account for it.

IMO the whole Swedish thing is an outlier. They aren't the most social people to begin with.

Google Mobility data show that in late April (for example) y-o-y mobility to workplaces in Stockholm was down around -30%. This was not as big as drops in urban areas in Norway, Denmark and Finland, but still a notable reduction in mobility.

They were encouraged to work from home if possible, like everywhere else. But their schools, stores, bars, and restaurants were still open, and they didn't wear masks, unlike everywhere else.

With the death rate being so low the last couple months it's doubtful they are concerned about it now, if they ever were.

A 9% year on year drop in GDP would seem to indicate that something changed, part of which would be a reduction in hospitality sector revenue.

Yes, and I know understand that the total us death rate is higher this year, and that further discredits this person.

And since he doesn't share where his data is from or even copies of the graphs he is using, and at time's slips words in that make me feel he has manipulated the data, I don't personally believe what he is saying.

That said, It is hard for me to tell people no look, here is the actual data for the plot he is showing of cases on top / deaths on the botttom and see the deaths are rising.. he has just fudged the data to make his point.

But yes I saw your post, and if I did not reply than it was my fault, and I apologize. But thank you for that, it was exactly the type of information I was looking for.

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Just Triing
Triathlete since 9:56:39 AM EST Aug 20, 2006.
Be kind English is my 2nd language. My primary language is Dave it's a unique evolution of English.

I'm sure it did drop, but I bet it's bounced back pretty well in Q3.

GDP effects are not that easy to decipher actually. The US printed and threw trillions$ of stimulus and support into the mix (which does not count against GDP), and other countries were either unwilling or unable to do that.

If you look around the world, almost every country has thrown fiscal stimulus at their economies to cope with the effects of Covid-19. Some, like Mexico, have been mainly targeted at individuals, rather than businesses, and some, that have dealt with the virus well (mainly in Asia and Oceana) have had to throw less money at it, but very few were unwilling to do it. Many were “unable” on paper, but did it anyway, and are suffering a massive increase in the debt to gdp ratio. Brazil is a good example. It’s debt to gdp will rise from 75% last year to about 100% this year, and this year it was forced to break its spending cap fiscal rule.

Are you trying to imply all those establishments stayed open without any changes in their policies and customers’ behavior?

Bars had seating only and table service policies, shops had maximum numbers of shoppers and many put tape on the floor to ensure social distancing took place, and many did in fact wear masks.

So for the umpteenth time, can we please stop pretending that life in Sweden went on as normal. Yes, they were less strict than some, and they had worse results than other Scandinavian countries.

There *is* a real disconnect between "confirmed cases" and deaths. Back in April tests were limited and places that were hit hard were only testing people who needed to be hospitalized. That results in a huge skewing of the data, since these people were primarily old and ill. People with milder forms of the disease were generally not counted. Many cases were not confirmed because they weren't tested... probably 10-20x the number that were confirmed.

Now testing is much more available.

Like I said before, you can look up the data yourself from reliable sources, and you *will* see that deaths/cases is much less than it was. That doesn't really prove anything though.

The more interesting data is the rate of hospitalizations and deaths vs public behavior and what this means for course of the disease. IMO most countries show a marked reduction in susceptibility once the disease has had a chance to spread, equivalent to ~.05-.10% fatalities.

Their policies *and* behavior were much less strict than other developed countries. But I never said there was *no* change. The other thing that makes Sweden a good study is that their restrictions have been relatively consistent the whole time.

You should rather be glad that they had a huge spike in April so we can see what happens with low mitigation. A high death rate followed by a rapid and sustained drop to ~0.