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Follow up - Florida positivity in children
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Population of Florida is about 21M. Kids under 18: 4.2M
We've tested just under 3M folks in the state, so roughly 14%.
We've tested 54,000 kids. Less than 1.3%

This most likely confirms what I had written previously: the high positivity rate reported of 31% is most likely due to a selection bias.
It seems that a lot of adults are getting tested to get back to work. But kids who get tested are tested either because they have symptoms, or are tested (most likely) because they are in the nucleus of someone who tested positive.

In other words, it's highly unlikely that the 31% can be extrapolated to the entire pediatric population.
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Re: Follow up - Florida positivity in children [Francois] [ In reply to ]
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Makes total sense.

Favorite Gear: Dimond | Cadex | Desoto Sport | Hoka One One
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Re: Follow up - Florida positivity in children [The GMAN] [ In reply to ]
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We're signed up for the same races. Should I break it to you about chatt?
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Re: Follow up - Florida positivity in children [Francois] [ In reply to ]
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Is that 3 million unique people, or 3 million tests? I've wondered about that, because here for example, you need to test negative twice before you are "clear", so that would be 3 tests, minimum, but 1 person. Then there are the frontline workers, LT care workers, etc. that get tested daily?
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Re: Follow up - Florida positivity in children [snoots] [ In reply to ]
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snoots wrote:
Is that 3 million unique people, or 3 million tests? I've wondered about that, because here for example, you need to test negative twice before you are "clear", so that would be 3 tests, minimum, but 1 person. Then there are the frontline workers, LT care workers, etc. that get tested daily?

I was wondering that same thing. Seems like many have had multiple tests so I think the % of the population tested is lower.
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Re: Follow up - Florida positivity in children [snoots] [ In reply to ]
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It's a good question and not totally straightforward to answer. See explanation page 2 here
http://ww11.doh.state.fl.us/...e_reports_latest.pdf
on how counts are done. There is some degree of double counting, albeit a small number overall.
As you pointed out: that's the case with HCW for instance. Front line folks aren't tested daily or even
weekly for that matter. Each hospital handles testing frequency differently. But overall, most places tested
at the beginning, and then again if there is accidental exposure with PPE to a known case. I don't think
the total number of unique individuals tested would drop by more than 15-20pct. So, that would not change
the reasoning about peds +.
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Re: Follow up - Florida positivity in children [Francois] [ In reply to ]
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Francois wrote:
We're signed up for the same races. Should I break it to you about chatt?

I deferred a month ago. Same for Arizona. Need to update my sig. :-)

Favorite Gear: Dimond | Cadex | Desoto Sport | Hoka One One
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