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Re: If Texas votes Biden in 2020... [chaparral] [ In reply to ]
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chaparral wrote:
Also, Republicans are going to have to address their young voter problems. Just think about it. People that are close to 40 are going really remember only 4 presidents, Clinton, GWB, Obama, and trump. Do you think they are going to be very open to Republicans when the two ones of their adult hood are GWB and trump?


I don't think its a question of young voters - it may be a question of all voters if current trends continue. Think about it: since 1992, there have been the following elections:
  • 4 Outright wins by Democrats (Popular Vote & Electoral College): 92, 96, 08, 12
  • 1 Outright win by Republicans: 2004
  • 2 Republican electoral college wins where they lost the popular vote: 2000, 2016

If I'm the Republicans, I'd be worried about long term trends - especially as they look to squeeze ever more votes out of a shrinking share of the population. The electoral college can only come through for them up to a point, and even then it isn't always on their side - Obama had electoral college advantages over both Mcain and Romney. They're likely to keep the advantage in 2020, but if Texas stays blue/purple, suddenly that's 38 electoral college votes that they couldn't count on previously - or in other words... Ohio and Pennsylvania!
Last edited by: timbasile: Jul 15, 20 6:59
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Re: If Texas votes Biden in 2020... [chaparral] [ In reply to ]
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This thread completely overlooks that Hispanics are not an ethnically monolithic group. Mexican-Americans, Puerto-ricans, Cuban-Americans etc. are ethnically, culturally, and politically very different.
Cuban-Americans tend to largely vote republicans, although this is changing among the younger generations. PR tend to be more democrat, albeit pretty moderate for the most part, and even in this group, it's not very homogenenous (https://scholars.org/...voting-united-states)
And Mexican-Americans tend to be largely democrat, with a couple of issues they are conservative on. So, there is a chance Texas could flip if (and that's a big if) they all vote.
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Re: If Texas votes Biden in 2020... [timbasile] [ In reply to ]
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Texas Republicans are getting worried. Here is a proposed GOP party platform in Texas, an electoral college for state wide races.



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Re: If Texas votes Biden in 2020... [chaparral] [ In reply to ]
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chaparral wrote:
Texas Republicans are getting worried. Here is a proposed GOP party platform in Texas, an electoral college for state wide races.

What do you want to bet that the distribution and weighting of those senate districts just happens to benefit one party over the other?
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Re: If Texas votes Biden in 2020... [spockwaslen] [ In reply to ]
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spockwaslen wrote:
The GMAN wrote:
Not saying it will happen but apparently the POTUS vote might be up for grabs if recent polling is to be believed. This isn't some kind of politically motivated post at all. Just wondering if Texas were to vote Biden in 2020 is it a permanent/permanent-ish turn like when CA or NY turned or will it be a one-off for this election cycle because of Trump or will it now be a toss-up/swing state?

A quasi-permanent change to Democrats would be a disaster for the Republican party going forward. I don't think that will happen... yet. Texas' blue turn is probably inevitable at some point in the future given the evergrowing Hispanic population. I think 2020 accelerates TX to toss-up/swing state status for the foreseeable future.


Lots of Hispanics are socially conservative and Catholic. The Republicans could easily take many Hispanic votes if they just changed a few things.

....You mean like quit sticking up for the Bigot-in-Chief calling them all murderers and rapists?
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Re: If Texas votes Biden in 2020... [windywave] [ In reply to ]
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windywave wrote:
j p o wrote:
bluemonkeytri wrote:
velocomp wrote:
The GMAN wrote:
Not saying it will happen but apparently the POTUS vote might be up for grabs if recent polling is to be believed. This isn't some kind of politically motivated post at all. Just wondering if Texas were to vote Biden in 2020 is it a permanent/permanent-ish turn like when CA or NY turned or will it be a one-off for this election cycle because of Trump or will it now be a toss-up/swing state?

A quasi-permanent change to Democrats would be a disaster for the Republican party going forward. I don't think that will happen... yet. Texas' blue turn is probably inevitable at some point in the future given the evergrowing Hispanic population. I think 2020 accelerates TX to toss-up/swing state status for the foreseeable future.


Only way it happens is if enough people have moved out of CA to TX The problem with the exodus from CA is that they leave because of political changes they don't like, but then try to implement the same failures elsewhere. See CO as an example. This is just my take, but we have been hearing for years that many Californians are moving to TX because of the Business friendly government.

If this happens, I think it will be permanent. Unless Biden totally fouls things up (which is possible).


It may not be Biden fouling things up, but his party. The mistake might be that thinking that a Biden landslide is some referendum on Republican policies/platform instead of being a personal referendum on the current POTUS and those who enabled him. KY just had this happen. A state that has recently been solidly red on a national level, finally voted in a R governor and an R majority in both state houses. The R Gov ended up being almost universally disliked, particularly for comments about the teachers strike, and was narrowly defeated in his first re-election bid by the son of his predecessor. However, every other statewide office was a virtual landslide for the R's and they maintained a solid majority in both houses of the General Assembly. In this case, the R majority didn't enable the R Gov like the Republican leadership has done for Trump.

As a result, the R's may not be able keep a majority in the Senate, but I would not necessarily say that a Biden landslide and the loss of a majority in the Senate is some permanent repudiation of the Republican Party. Simply that there are many like me who want to see a certain section of the R Party get cleaned out and learn a lesson.


You and I need to sit down and have a long talk with the Democratic party machinery. This is my fear as well. Win big, take back the Senate, win the presidency, be in position to have another 40 - 60 year run in Congress like from '32 - '96 (or the GOP from 1860 - 1932). Then fuck the whole thing up by misreading what got you there and lose Congress two years later.

Trump and his enablers will leave a bad taste in a lot of people's mouths for a long time if you do the right things and give them a contrast. But that doesn't mean you dust off every little thing on your wish list to push it through the first year or two because you assume that everyone loves all of your ideas since you won.


Psst you agree to something like that you're accused of being a Trump ballwasher and Dan jumps all over you.

Just a thought, but it might be more to your posting history than just that.
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Re: If Texas votes Biden in 2020... [timbasile] [ In reply to ]
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timbasile wrote:
chaparral wrote:
Texas Republicans are getting worried. Here is a proposed GOP party platform in Texas, an electoral college for state wide races.


What do you want to bet that the distribution and weighting of those senate districts just happens to benefit one party over the other?

I think they've already shown that they're pretty happy to keep cheating (voter suppression, gerrymandering etc...) if it means that can position them to keep winning... So my suspicion is that, if Texas does turn blue at some point in the next 20 years, simply eliminating all the unjust impediments that Republicans have put up to prevent people from voting will ensure that Texas will remain blue for a long time.
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Re: If Texas votes Biden in 2020... [trois_pample] [ In reply to ]
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Very true.

Houston turned blue in 2018. A blue wave.

Since, they have turned back Repub suppression. They have reformed bail bonds so the poor aren't incarcerated because they can't pay bail. They changed the Jim Crow era practice of having the tax assessor control voting. They liked to have fewer voting places in democratic areas. They cancelled the contract with DPS to enforce traffic fines by not allowing you to renew your driver's license which is a primary proof of ID used to vote.
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Re: If Texas votes Biden in 2020... [The GMAN] [ In reply to ]
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https://www.cnbc.com/...onavirus-deaths.html

Texas orders extra body bags, mortuary trucks as it braces for more coronavirus deaths
PUBLISHED FRI, JUL 17 2020

Texas officials and funeral home directors are ordering extra body bags and refrigerated trucks as they prepare for an increase in deaths from Covid-19, which has already killed 3,657 in the state.

The Federal Emergency Management Agency is sending 14 refrigerated trucks to the state next week — on top of the eight already sent — to serve as temporary mortuaries, while some funeral homes are reserving their own trucks from private companies.

“The directors I’ve talked to in the last week are at capacity or over capacity, thus the reason they had to bring in the trailers,” said Gene Allen, president of the Texas Funeral Directors Association.
Travis County, where Austin is located, is in the process of procuring three extra mortuary trucks “out of an abundance of caution,” public information officer Hector Nieto said in an interview.



On the same day ...
https://www.click2houston.com/...navirus-cases-surge/
Texas Gov. Greg Abbott says “there is no shutdown coming” as coronavirus cases surge
Last edited by: Harbinger: Jul 17, 20 11:00
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Re: If Texas votes Biden in 2020... [j p o] [ In reply to ]
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j p o wrote:
bluemonkeytri wrote:
velocomp wrote:
The GMAN wrote:
Not saying it will happen but apparently the POTUS vote might be up for grabs if recent polling is to be believed. This isn't some kind of politically motivated post at all. Just wondering if Texas were to vote Biden in 2020 is it a permanent/permanent-ish turn like when CA or NY turned or will it be a one-off for this election cycle because of Trump or will it now be a toss-up/swing state?

A quasi-permanent change to Democrats would be a disaster for the Republican party going forward. I don't think that will happen... yet. Texas' blue turn is probably inevitable at some point in the future given the evergrowing Hispanic population. I think 2020 accelerates TX to toss-up/swing state status for the foreseeable future.


Only way it happens is if enough people have moved out of CA to TX The problem with the exodus from CA is that they leave because of political changes they don't like, but then try to implement the same failures elsewhere. See CO as an example. This is just my take, but we have been hearing for years that many Californians are moving to TX because of the Business friendly government.

If this happens, I think it will be permanent. Unless Biden totally fouls things up (which is possible).


It may not be Biden fouling things up, but his party. The mistake might be that thinking that a Biden landslide is some referendum on Republican policies/platform instead of being a personal referendum on the current POTUS and those who enabled him. KY just had this happen. A state that has recently been solidly red on a national level, finally voted in a R governor and an R majority in both state houses. The R Gov ended up being almost universally disliked, particularly for comments about the teachers strike, and was narrowly defeated in his first re-election bid by the son of his predecessor. However, every other statewide office was a virtual landslide for the R's and they maintained a solid majority in both houses of the General Assembly. In this case, the R majority didn't enable the R Gov like the Republican leadership has done for Trump.

As a result, the R's may not be able keep a majority in the Senate, but I would not necessarily say that a Biden landslide and the loss of a majority in the Senate is some permanent repudiation of the Republican Party. Simply that there are many like me who want to see a certain section of the R Party get cleaned out and learn a lesson.


You and I need to sit down and have a long talk with the Democratic party machinery. This is my fear as well. Win big, take back the Senate, win the presidency, be in position to have another 40 - 60 year run in Congress like from '32 - '96 (or the GOP from 1860 - 1932). Then fuck the whole thing up by misreading what got you there and lose Congress two years later.

Trump and his enablers will leave a bad taste in a lot of people's mouths for a long time if you do the right things and give them a contrast. But that doesn't mean you dust off every little thing on your wish list to push it through the first year or two because you assume that everyone loves all of your ideas since you won.

Exactly this. I am a mid 30's activist democrat (lots of volunteering and donating) who was a delegate for one of the major candidate before the "Biden Blowout" took place in the primary.

I say activist, but I am an establishment democrat. The left wing of the party scares me almost as much as the right wing right now. If we hit the trifecta and start pushing through the agenda of the far left -- I will not only be surprised, I will be devastated. Biden was my second choice and honestly the politician I most agree with on policy. If the policies of the black & red start to rear their head -- I'm out. All that republicans would need to do is find a moderate like Romney -- or just run Romney.
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