https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/


https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america?view=total-deaths&tab=trend


Not sure world o meter is the gold standard, but here we are 200K dead, projection looking quite grim out to Dec and Feb.


And no one seems to care, or at least those in a position to change things don't seem to care

It actually aggregates across sources. Numbers vary slightly because reporting hours vary across the countries and states they look at but overall it’s an accurate reflection of official reports.

Okay, thanks. When you look at the tabs you can hit eg universal masks you shake head and go what is wrong with just say everyone wear a mask.

When taking the excess death measure provided the other day, this is clearly a big issue, at least it is for the 1000 people who pass away most days. We have had BLM matters protests and had some people protest against thier freedoms being taken away in Wisconsin.

Give we had a movement who were all about ALM during the height of BLM, I would have thought that in every city people might come out and say yes AL do matter and we should do the basics, wear masks, distance, don't rush opening up, rathe than argue with the scientists and data folk

end of July was my "best estimate" based on our trajectory at the time. The end of September was my "best case scenario" (so call it my 99% confidence interval) based on some mitigation. As I mentioned earlier, in another thread (mid-July) I also stated that I thought this best case scenario could move out to just past the election (as a long shot possibility, so like a 1/10,000 chance) if we got really serious about containing it, come to jesus in early/mid July when we were just starting to see deaths go back up again. Obviously that didn't happen and here we are.

At least from what I can see (and I live in Oregon) people seem to be kind of backing off controls somewhat. Oregon is one of the least impacted states, but our numbers are still going up and I see a lot of people being more lax. In fairness, I think we are all getting a little mentally fatigued with this.

I got take out last night from a restaurant and it was full (at half capacity) all indoor seating. At least for me, I just don't see a reason to eat inside at restaurant right now, it's just an unnecessary risk and there is zero impact (at least in my mind) in getting take away. I'm not perfect, but I believe "marginal gains" is not just for cycling, everything anyone does adds up to an integrated effort to minimize transmission. I wish people would approach this with a marginal gains mindset and think about what they are doing. My pet peeve these days is families/couples in the grocery store, there's absolutely no need to send multiple people on shopping trips (the worst being mom, dad and the kids, its not like childcare was an excuse), but it appears very common. It seems like people are oblivious to the fact that every unnecessary encounter avoided takes away some risk (even if it is small, integrated across thousands of people you are getting rid a of few cases and making the multiplier just a little smaller).

Don’t be silly. All lives don’t matter and they don’t actually think that. They just don’t want black people to actually become something more than the nations afterthoughts.

FYIGM.

---

How does Danny Hart sit down with balls that big?

So what answer do you have for those that cannot go back to work or have their hours really cut back, how do they survive?

When do we open up again? It is easy to say all these things if you are still working, but what about the millions of others who cannot go back to work?

Remember, there are 330 million people in the US and as of right now this year, there have already been 2 million non-Covid deaths and we never worry about those causes. And as you have seen from others postings on other threads, people know of people that have passed away with Covid being the cause, when they already had other severe health issues.

https://data.cdc.gov/...and-S/9bhg-hcku/data

I'll concede many people don't worry about the causes of heart disease, cancer, suicide, etc. I wouldn't use the universal "we", but I think I get what you mean. The obvious distinction is those people's indifference do not force my parents to live their day to day lives any differently. Contagions should be treated differently.

I think there are very few people arguing we shouldn't be "opening up again". However, "opening up again" seems to have quite a wide variety of definitions. For instance, the person leading our country and his cult prefer the nothing ever happened definition. Others that aren't as cavalier prefer the hey, let's take some precautions and everything is going to be OK definition. Those two interpretations are incompatible with trying to keep the entire country as safe as possible.

In another thread the common attitude regarding businesses going bankrupt was "businesses go bankrupt all the time"...

If only this country had taken prudent and appropriate steps from the start, we would be in a much different place. Less virus, less deaths, less unemployment.

See other countries like Canada, New Zealand, Australia (which just posted much better than expected employment numbers overnight, despite the lockdown in Victoria), Taiwan (seven total deaths)....

If only Trump had been made aware of the true nature of the threat. Oh wait...

Covid pushes New Zealand into worst recession in years

No one is immune from the effects of Covid. Strict measures, economy struggles. Loose measures, economy stays strong. No one is saying that the economy is more important than lives, people are saying that the economy is "lives". We have 330 million people, spending is the USA. If we get into problems, loads and loads of people will have real problems. I can't even imagine a prolonged (multi year or worse) recession. Yeah, we had smaller corrections for a year because of the dot com bubble, we had another year in 2008 and the current one went from DOW 27000 to 18000 and back up to 28000 in a matter of 6 months. That is basically for the last 20 years. The economy is FRAGILE and is rip for a beating.

How many lives at stake if this current bubble pops because we are in a constant holding pattern for covid?

You should include Sweden as well.

Regarding unemployment and the GDP drop, don't forget that the US has been printing and throwing around trillions of $$$ to keep the economy boosted. Many other countries do not have this ability, and the ones that do may not be willing to suffer the results of higher debt. On the other hand we had policies in the first 4 months that made it highly favorable for people to be unemployed, since >50% of them were making more at home than they did working. Anyway, evaluating the economic impacts is not a simple matter.

Regarding the spread of the virus, you need to remember that many countries simply got lucky. By the time it was flaring up in different parts of the world, they had very few cases, so shutting down and closing borders was quite effective. If NM (where I live) had shut it's borders like a country back in March when we shut down, we'd have a stellar record as well. But instead the US was open to inter-state travel which allowed the virus to spread from the hotspots to the rest of the country. Could state borders have been closed for a long period? Maybe it could have been done, but it would have been very difficult.

Yes, NZ saw a deep economic contraction in Q2 (-12% q-o-q) as a result of the strict lockdown. Some countries saw a deep contraction in economic activity due to the high outbreak of COVID in their countries, and some saw a combination of the two. Australia had a less strict lockdown and saw Q2 growth contract by only 7% q-o-q.

New Zealand saw 102 days of no COVID activity and that resulted in a stong economic bounce in June and July. There has been some loss of momentum since then due to the recent outbreak (still less than 50 cases a week). Still, Q3 economic activity is likely to show a significant rebound from Q2, and the country is still in far better economic shape than most of those that have had much less strict mitigation measures.

Different countries have different problems. A Caribbean island nation that relies heavily on tourism could have very strict lockdowns (some have) that keeps the virus minimized. But this will tend to come at a heavy economic cost. At some point they may have to throw in the towel and allow more tourism arrivals, hopefully with measures in place to avoid positive cases arriving.

The US does not rely heavily on tourism, and is a large enough economy that it could have been largely self-sufficient with early strict mitigation measures. That, of course, didn't happen, and we even allowed travellers from Europe and Asia to be packed in immigration halls for many hours back in March, before travelling further into the US without quarantining. We have failed to get testing up to the point of doing more than diagnostic testing and the speed of results remains poor. We are doing little contact tracing, and indeed tracing is impossible in areas of the country where the positive cases are too high.

So yes, a recession was inevitable in the US if we rewind to January. But the US, as a nation, has done one of the worst jobs in the world in handling this, whether you're talking about public health measures, fiscal measures, testing and tracing or public communication and compliance. We could be in a far better place with respect to the scale of the outbreak, the number of deaths, the fiscal and economic costs and the speed of our recovery.

What's your definition of "holding pattern?" The economy is largely open outside of some fraction of restaurants, gyms, and movie theaters, houses of worship, etc, in some areas. And in most of those areas they're allowed to take lots of measures like operating outdoors where possible or operating at less-than-full capacity.

It's a valid point, but I don't think asking people to minimize close contact indoors and to wear a face covering when they do, is that savage a drag on the economy.

I would suggest that those people work as hard as they can to get everyone they know to do a better job at reducing the spread. Every time they hear of someone having a house party or similar event, they should know that is a direct extension of their unemployment.

As for when to we open again. Most of the economy is open again. Those that are unemployed are generally so for one of two reasons. One is part of the economy that is recovering, but that takes some time. the other is part of the economy that is dependent on people being comfortable in close proximity. That can be air travel, large sporting events, restaurants, etc. Even without government controls, those parts of the economy won't return to normal until people feel safe to return to those activities. Worse case extreme is cruise ships that won't be able to afford to operate until retired people feel they are safe.

If you want numbers, some people feel safe now, but I think if we stay at current numbers then we will stay at the same level of economic activity. I think to get things fully open, then you would want less than 1% positivity in testing and less than 1 case per 100,000 people per day. That only needs to be at the county level for restaurants, state level for large events and country level for air travel and domestic tourism.

Don't forget travel and motels... and BIKE RACES! Another huge one is events of any kind. Where I live the only industry is tourism, and it's been hit really hard.

for a nation wide 6 week lock down pay the 130 million work aged people who are not able to WFH 1000 a week which is above the median wage.

Yes, we never, ever worry about those causes...

The US is now officially over 200k.

But probably passed that point long ago.

barely noted by the media, so answer is yes the usa is okay with this

Over 50,000 Benghazis.