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Re: So why did Georgia not POP? [monty] [ In reply to ]
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I think states like FL and TX are going to see COVID cases coming and going in an irregular wave pattern. I think both states are at or near the bottom of a trough and events (school openings, Labor Day shenanigans, complacency as cases fall) have been set in place for another crest. So we should start seeing cases rise again in the coming weeks. Hopefully not like this summer but the rise is inevitable. Then comes the lagging data for hospitalizations and deaths. The X factor is how the fall and winter plays out as people move more indoors and we get both COVID and flu causing havoc.

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Re: So why did Georgia not POP? [monty] [ In reply to ]
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monty wrote:
Good news in that the bump in covid deaths in Georgia -- and Florida, California, and Texas -- seems to have been declining in last few weeks. //

Yes good news indeed. At least in CA we have been moving down the death per million scale, now at about 25th, in the middle. The others you mentioned are moving the other direction in that metric, but the states popping now may stop their slides if they keep up the nonsense..

And I dont think we can use NY or NJ as examples of what could be, that was another time and place, with all things that could go wrong, actually do so. But they did give us the formula for getting out of not just a steep slide, but the minor ones just about every state has or is experiencing since the beginning of this.

Looking at the death per million rankings for a moment I thought I made an error claiming the Georgia, Florida, Texas, and California death rates at peak were on order of magnitude less that NY/NJ, because currently, those states are about 1/5 to 1/3 of total deaths per million of NY/NJ (i.e. in total deaths there is less than order of magnitude difference). However, those states have been having deaths fairly steadily since March while NY/NJ peaked with much higher daily death rates but NY/NJ have now gone down to nearly zero.

Very different shape curves. You could even say that Ga, Fl, Tx, and California flattened the curve, but the curve continues whereas NY/NJ didn't flatten but seem done (hopefully). Daily death curves in NY/NJ look similar to UK, France, and Italy where deaths have for some time approached zero (or single digits).

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Re: So why did Georgia not POP? [The GMAN] [ In reply to ]
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I think schools starting up again will be a very interesting experiment. It is possible that we might see a bump in cases and not much of one in fatalities. The 2nd wave has a lower fatality rate than the first and it is possible that a third wave will have a lower rate than the second due to lower risk members of the population being more prone to exposure. Or maybe the fatality rate will remain about the same as the 2nd wave but the case numbers will go up as people are just giving up on precautions.
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Re: So why did Georgia not POP? [ubdawg] [ In reply to ]
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I don't know if I'd call this deaths trending down, although cases seem to be, so hopefully deaths will follow.

I stand corrected. Looking at 7-day average now, Georgia still may be flat -- though Fl, Tx, Ca have clear decline in daily deaths.

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My observation is the elderly don't tend to get out much in this heat, with good reason, and they still make up the majority of recent deaths.

Interesting and sad. Elderly should be locked down if they want to avoid this.

Yet when I'm 85, I might well take the risk of the annual summer visit from the grandkids, reasoning that I might not be alive if a wait another year. I also know some people in their 70s who still have to work and can't avoid some risk.

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It doesn't really matter what Phil is saying, the music of his voice is the appropriate soundtrack for a bicycle race. HTupolev
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Re: So why did Georgia not POP? [H-] [ In reply to ]
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H- wrote:

Interesting and sad. Elderly should be locked down if they want to avoid this.

Do you also lock down the health care workers associated with the elderly? How about the people who clean their facilities (assuming nursing homes or assisted living residences), or prepare their meals, or provide whatever therapies they need?

Just wondering about the mechanics of such a suggestion.

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Re: So why did Georgia not POP? [H-] [ In reply to ]
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I must have heard a dozen times this summer, "The Germans couldn't kill me in WWII, I'm going to live my life.....". It was usually followed by a comment about who knows what next year might hold.

I did try to keep mom and dad as distanced as possible but she is a hard headed person.
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Re: So why did Georgia not POP? [klehner] [ In reply to ]
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klehner wrote:
H- wrote:


Interesting and sad. Elderly should be locked down if they want to avoid this.


Do you also lock down the health care workers associated with the elderly? How about the people who clean their facilities (assuming nursing homes or assisted living residences), or prepare their meals, or provide whatever therapies they need?

Just wondering about the mechanics of such a suggestion.

In general the mechanics are (a) for self-sufficient elderly to reduce contact with strangers and with family who may have been exposed, and (b) implement procedures to reduce risk for those in institutions.

My observation, especially when I was in Florida a couple months ago, was that many elderly were carrying on as if almost normal. Some may have decided, for instance, to accept the risk of grocery shopping without a mask, others may have no relatives and can't afford the extra cost of delivery services.

You can research what procedures that elder care facilities have implemented.

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It doesn't really matter what Phil is saying, the music of his voice is the appropriate soundtrack for a bicycle race. HTupolev
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Re: So why did Georgia not POP? [klehner] [ In reply to ]
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klehner wrote:
H- wrote:


Interesting and sad. Elderly should be locked down if they want to avoid this.


Do you also lock down the health care workers associated with the elderly? How about the people who clean their facilities (assuming nursing homes or assisted living residences), or prepare their meals, or provide whatever therapies they need?

Just wondering about the mechanics of such a suggestion.

As much as you can, yes. I work in a healthcare field that services the elderly. We would be in ALFs and SNFs everyday, but that is almost nonexistent currently. Same goes for a lot of their other vendors.
They also had to segregate staff and quite sharing staff across different locations. Just doing a lot of the basics(PPE, hand washing, etc) that was not consistent early on in the pandemic.
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Re: So why did Georgia not POP? [TimeIsUp] [ In reply to ]
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TimeIsUp wrote:
Etowah HS officially POPPED. This would be hilarious if it were a less serious subject. Florida, I'll see your bet and raise you a bazillion. This will magically disappear after August 31st. Wink, wink.

Not sure how I missed this photo on this forum - it was all over social media, reddit, and TMZ the day after it was taken.

This is my son's school. EHS shut down 7 days after starting in person classes. They go back in person on Thurday in hybrid mode. A-L on Monday/Thursday, M-Z on Tuesday/Friday. Will be interesting to watch the next few weeks.
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Re: So why did Georgia not POP? [H-] [ In reply to ]
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H- wrote:
Personally I think the Southern bump is due to hot weather and people staying inside (in unsafe manner, too many in too small space). That is cause for a few cases with which I'm personally familiar anyway.

And in the spring the refrain was "I think it will disappear during the summer due to the heat, like the flu does". Strange how looking backwards is so different than looking forwards.
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Re: So why did Georgia not POP? [Harbinger] [ In reply to ]
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Harbinger wrote:
H- wrote:

Personally I think the Southern bump is due to hot weather and people staying inside (in unsafe manner, too many in too small space). That is cause for a few cases with which I'm personally familiar anyway.


And in the spring the refrain was "I think it will disappear during the summer due to the heat, like the flu does". Strange how looking backwards is so different than looking forwards.

Yes. Yet in a way it did -- in Northern climates where people can be outside more in the summer.

I think outdoor activities need to be promoted more. People should be encouraged to go to the beach and not shamed.

Expecting college students to isolate and not party is foolish. So instead they should be encouraged to party outside by allowing outdoor alcohol consumption.

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It doesn't really matter what Phil is saying, the music of his voice is the appropriate soundtrack for a bicycle race. HTupolev
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