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one million
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We've passed the one million mark worldwide. Any guesses what the final score might be?

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/...40299423467b48e9ecf6
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Re: one million [cerveloguy] [ In reply to ]
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I can guarantee you we had passed 1M a while back already.
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Re: one million [Francois] [ In reply to ]
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Francois wrote:
I can guarantee you we had passed 1M a while back already.

Are you actually suggesting we have people with this virus that have not been tested? How dare you!
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Re: one million [cerveloguy] [ In reply to ]
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My bet is there are far more than 1 million in China...
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Re: one million [cerveloguy] [ In reply to ]
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cerveloguy wrote:
We've passed the one million mark worldwide. Any guesses what the final score might be?

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/...40299423467b48e9ecf6

It doesn’t matter. We will never know. Some professionals think 40-80 percent of the world will be exposed. Many will get sick, many will never know they had it, some will get very sick, small percent will die. As we will never test 7 billion people it’s anyone’s guess. Now deaths on the other hand, we should be able to get a number on that one. Harder to hide the bodies. So let’s track that one and start the betting. I’m gonna go with 85,000 US. (A really bad flew season). No idea worldwide.
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Re: one million [Pedalsaurus] [ In reply to ]
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Harder to hide the bodies. So let’s track that one and start the betting. I’m gonna go with 85,000 US. (A really bad flew season).


It's actually going to be tougher. Say you have late stage cancer. Get the flu and die. That death is generally considered to be a death do to cancer. The same situation with Covid19 is being attributed too Covid19. To be clear, I think Covid19 is much worse than the Flu, but it's not an easy comparison.
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Re: one million [Cavechild] [ In reply to ]
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Cavechild wrote:
H
It's actually going to be tougher. Say you have late stage cancer. Get the flu and die. That death is generally considered to be a death do to cancer. The same situation with Covid19 is being attributed too Covid19. To be clear, I think Covid19 is much worse than the Flu, but it's not an easy comparison


Ha, yeah, this line of argument is making the rounds in virus sceptic circles now that it's no longer really tenable to claim that it's just a little coughy bug. Fallback positions!


Last edited by: trail: Apr 2, 20 16:10
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Re: one million [trail] [ In reply to ]
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It's a pretty simple matter to conduct a study to determine much better estimates of the true number infected and the Infection Fatality Risk.

1) For the IFR, you can test an entire population as was essentially done with the first plague cruise ship:

https://www.medrxiv.org/...020.03.05.20031773v2

2) You can conduct *random* tests within a population to get a better IFR number and also better estimate the infected percentage within the whole population. The current active-infection PCR test may under-report mild cases due to a low virus load, but the upcoming antibody tests should give nice visibility.

I'm hoping that random-test studies will show that the percentage infected is much higher than most models predict as that would mean:

a) The IFR is much lower than otherwise modeled.

b) It gives hope for the end-game for the current isolation protocols as herd immunity has a chance to work. Otherwise, even if we manage to "bend/flatten the curve", we'll likely just see another outbreak when isolation measures are relaxed. (Vaccines still seem to be over a year away...)


"100% of the people who confuse correlation and causation end up dying."
Last edited by: MOP_Mike: Apr 2, 20 16:14
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Re: one million [Pedalsaurus] [ In reply to ]
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Re: one million [Pedalsaurus] [ In reply to ]
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I’m gonna go with 85,000 US. (A really bad flew season).

I can guarantee it'll be well north or 85,000.

We're almost at 6,000 as of right now. Yesterday had 1,000 deaths alone, and doubling every 2.5 days. Current trajectory has us at 20,000 in about 10 days.


But lets be optimistic and say that it does stop at 85,000. That would be a really bad flu season, except that it was bad enough that the country had to be shut down to keep the numbers at "really bad flu."



For what its worth, I hate making predictions, because it feels like I'm rooting for something bad to happen. I hope all the nay sayers are right. More importantly, I hope people stop going to church and accelerating the pandemic (and it was the beach before it was the church, and I'm sure its a lot of other things as well).

-----------------------------Baron Von Speedypants
-----------------------------RunTraining articles here:
http://forum.slowtwitch.com/...runtraining;#1612485
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Re: one million [trail] [ In reply to ]
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So if you had terminal brain cancer and hated the pain and suffering and decide to jump off the Golden Gate Bridge. What’s the cause if death? Cancer, suicide, drowning? I would guess suicide.
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Re: one million [Pedalsaurus] [ In reply to ]
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Pedalsaurus wrote:
So if you had terminal brain cancer and hated the pain and suffering and decide to jump off the Golden Gate Bridge. What’s the cause if death? Cancer, suicide, drowning? I would guess suicide.

Weren't you arguing the opposite?

===============
Proud member of the MSF (Maple Syrup Mafia)
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Re: one million [cerveloguy] [ In reply to ]
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The #'s will be just a wild guess at this point. Per Worldometers: 2116 new cases and 1355 new deaths in France, including 884 fatalities in nursing homes that occurred over a period of several weeks and that were announced only today.

Per my wife from her communications with her fellow physicians, one hospital in Houston has 44 positive cases, 38 pending with a 3-5 day turnaround on test results (total of 82), but over 90 people on ventilators right now. There' s a real lack of testing to identify who really has it, still.

So, we know the testing is under-reported, and the deaths will probably not be a great figure either. Whatever the reported number is, reality will be at least double, and many would argue (rightfully) that the multiple is way higher.




There are three kinds of people, those who can count, and those who can't.
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