RZ wrote:
monty wrote:
I haven't looked up the numbers lately, but I think something like 50 crew members had tested positive.// No, I get that, but what we don't know is when those 50 got it, do we? It could have been 3 or 4 in the beginning maybe 20 to 25 a little later, and they double on the last day to 50(when everyone got tested after mitigation had begun). My guess is that 3 or 4 more days of normal activity on the ship, and those numbers double again, along with the passengers. We are never going to know exactly the timing of the infections, except that they seem to want to double if left unchecked ever few days.
I know that some people have little to no symptoms, but are some of you arguing that a "lot" of people will be immune to this virus?
We'll probably never know. My post was more about my suspicion on how it continued to spread throughout the ship. Thousands of dining utensils changed hands every day and plenty of people forget how easy it is to touch something and then touch their face. A lot of it happens unconsciously if you're not hyper-vigilant. But the quarantine time was entirely within the 14 day incubation period so they could have been infected long before. I think it was a combination of the two. Which is entirely subjective.
From what I understand, it all started with one passenger. He was confirmed COVID-19 positive on February 1, 2020 after having been dropped off in Hong Kong several days earlier. That means the entire crew and passengers were going about normal affairs until 02/01. Passengers were not confined, to their cabins, until Feb 5th. So, probably at least a week before people were separated/confined. As someone stated earlier, we really don't know who, besides the guy dropped off in Hong Kong, may have come on to the ship infected initially (meaning, was it the one guy who spread the disease or multiple asymptomatic other passengers????).
Luckily, this "experiment" involved testing all passengers and crew. It hard to predict the true infectious nature here. But, with the possible early exposure of a week or more (before room quarantine), plus the possibility that others may have come on to the ship infected but asymptomatic, it gives us a good idea looking at the numbers. 2900 passengers or crew did NOT become infected. Apparently, none or very few, were presenting with concerning symptoms on boarding. They tested everyone even though only about 380 or so were symptomatic when the concerns started. Eventually, 194 more became symptomatic but that still left almost 200 who never developed symptoms.
How can you extrapolate this in to the real world? No city itself would compare to such an isolated confined space as a cruise ship so you'd think a city would have an even lower rate of infection if everyone could be tested. On the other hand, no city could also absolutely confine people to their rooms with no, or very limited, ability to leave. This is a very strict quarantine.