I would say none of them are lies, they are all just predictions on a sporting event that has yet to happen. Is this a trick question??

It's kind of a trick question. What if we replace the predictions of a Miami win with predictions of the Trump tax cuts paying for themselves. Were those just bad predictions or were those lies?

Not really a good comparison. The outcome of a football game is massively influenced by relatively random events. They're very difficult to predict when between competent teams. Also predictions of the games are influenced by tribal affiliation in a way that's perfectly acceptable and fun, with little serious consequence.

On the other hand, while the economy is also subject to random events, there are decades of data with which to analyze the conditions under which the Laffer Curve might be valid. And decades of historical GDP growth that can be used to estimate future growth. Recently, while explaining why GDP growth hasn't consistently met it's 3% target, Mnuchin listed some events that happened to depress growth. Which implies that the Trump estimate assumes zero-to-few negative geopolitical events for the next 20 years. Much less a recession. It's a fundamentally un-conservative approach to budgeting/prediction. It's like assuming the Patriots will never turn over the football.

And lastly while politics also involves tribalism, the irrational bias in this case can have consequence, so it's good to have some relatively neutral, clear-eyed analysis at times

If you say you think the Dolphins will beat the Patriots, but in fact you don’t believe the Dolphins will win, then it’s a lie.

If you say you believe your tax cuts will pay for themselves via higher GDP growth, but in fact you don’t believe that, then it’s also a lie.

ETA: in other words, in both cases, the outcome is irrelevant to whether or not the initial statement was a lie. The initial statement was a belief about an unknown outcome. If the stated belief is accurate, it’s not a lie.

They were bad predictions.. now there is a lot more research and historical data, to help in financial predictions, but outcomes can still vary significantly.

is it a lie to plan on getting a 10% raise every year, cause you got one this year? no but probably a very bad plan/ prediction.

I would say when making a prediction, I am not sure if there is a way to lie.

Unless you know something.. ie I predict my great grandfather will be superbowl MVP next year.. could be called a lie since he has been dead for many many years, never played football when he was a lie.. of course maybe he could come back from the dead.. so its just a bad prediction???

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Just Triing
Triathlete since 9:56:39 AM EST Aug 20, 2006.
Be kind English is my 2nd language. My primary language is Dave it's a unique evolution of English.

You can’t really lie in a prediction, but you can be very wrong and everyone will know it.

Those are all lies. No one held those thoughts.

Which meshes nicely with the tax cuts.

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I'm beginning to think that we are much more fucked than I thought.

You can lie with a prediction if you don’t actually believe it.

This is interesting bc it depends on the knowledge of the person making the claim. The twenty touchdown would be a lie for anyone with even a little knowledge of football but not for a four year old. Same with the most people believe the dolphins will win when the spread is 18.

Exactly, I could say, "I predict that the sun will rise in the west tomorrow." That would clearly be a lie.

On the other hand I could say, "I predict the coin will turn up heads." That would not be a lie.

An 18 point favorite is really unlikely to win a football game. I even put a statement in there about the Dolphins winning by twenty TDs. That's never happened in a professional game. There's also a statement about saying "most people thinking the Dolphins would win". The comparison is good.

"Just remember, it's not a lie if you believe it" George Costanza

This morning, I was flipping channels and saw Larry Kudlow on Maria Bartelomo's show. While the Fed and the Cong. Budget Office were predicting 1.5% GDP growth. Kudlow said their models were wrong and it should be 3%+. He believes it - but then again, he's not an economist and he'll support anything this admin supports (he was notorious Anti-Tariffs when he was at CNBC, but now supports tariffs now that he works in the admin.)

Your post is a lie. =)

My own opinion is that 3 should be considered a lie for anyone whose heard of football.
Numbers 2, 4, and 6 should be considered lies in sophisticated circles.

But that still leaves 1,5, and 7 in territory that gets the benefit of the doubt.

Edit: I realize it seems odd to call #4 a lie but not #5. The thinking there goes: it's possible to consider #4 a lie by a sophisticated person because it's a statement made about themselves, but the sophisticated person could be referencing many unsophisticated people in #5.

In April 2019, Kudlow said tax cuts were already paying for themselves.

Trump said stock market gains were, "in a sense", reducing debt.

"And yet, we picked up $5.2 trillion just in the stock market. Possibly picked up the whole thing in terms of the first nine months in terms of value. So, you can say in one sense we're really increasing values; and maybe in a sense we're reducing debt."

Both lies.

The intent to deceive is also a necessary element for it to be a lie.

For example, when Bleppy says "The Leafs will win the Cup this year!", he doesn't actually believe it (he's not that stupid, is he?). But it's not a lie, because he's not trying to deceive us (he knows we're not that stupid).

But when a politician says "The tax cuts will pay for themselves and grow the economy", that is a lie. The politician makes that statement with the intent to deceive.