I was supposed to be at a conference in Orlando this week. It was canceled on Saturday.

I'm on the other coast in FL and still in the cone of uncertainty. Obviously, it's going to hit the gulf coast but there are some models that predict it to cross the state. Hoping for the best for all. Hopefully it does what they think and goes from a Cat 4 to a Cat 1 before making landfall.

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Favorite Gear: Dimond | Cadex | Desoto Sport | Hoka One One

https://www.instagram.com/p/Ci8B76LO61J/

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"What's your claim?" - Ben Gravy
"Your best work is the work you're excited about" - Rick Rubin

I have two nephews named Ian.

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Favorite Gear: Dimond | Cadex | Desoto Sport | Hoka One One

An English futbol podcast I listen to had a whole thing about the dying out of the name Ian over there. I think they had some sort of contest to find the youngest Ian.

Pack your Superman cape. Better yet, get your boy to sharpie up Tampa avoidance cone.

Looks like god is pretty pissed off about mistreating poor immigrants.

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I'm beginning to think that we are much more fucked than I thought.

PSA - if you're picking up migrants for your lawn business they're now in Martha's Vineyard. Just a heads up as it's not cheap to fly these days with gas through the roof and all...

I've got family in the Fort Myers area, hoping they've battened down all their hatches.

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The secret of a long life is you try not to shorten it.
-Nobody

RickP’s favorite/worst time of the year.

Hope you’re ready Rick. Good luck.

Almost 2 days to travel the length of FL. Hope it peters out. Would not want to be on the west end of Cuba right now.

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I'm beginning to think that we are much more fucked than I thought.

Someone I know proposed that there is a Janet/Jennifer line; around 1960, people stopped naming girls Janet, and started to prefer Jennifer

Janet kinda



... died out

---

"What's your claim?" - Ben Gravy
"Your best work is the work you're excited about" - Rick Rubin

Damnit Janet


...

---

"What's your claim?" - Ben Gravy
"Your best work is the work you're excited about" - Rick Rubin

Bringing it back to Ian, and the situation at hand

---

"What's your claim?" - Ben Gravy
"Your best work is the work you're excited about" - Rick Rubin

Don’t worry, just today another property insurance company in Florida went bankrupt. The sixth in the past couple years.

Not having property insurance during a hurricane is good, right?

I have to say, hurricane season is a lot less stressful since my employer pulled out of Florida. The risk was just too high.

---

I'm beginning to think that we are much more fucked than I thought.

So, every hurricane season, we see news flashes of local grocery stores and their shelves being completely gutted. There's a lack of supplies and some people struggling to get stuff that they're going to need to hold through the storm. Now, I don't live in a natural disaster area (except for an occasional blizzard), but if I did, I'd think that I'd have a supply of bottled water, canned foods, some batteries/ flashlights, etc. as part of my normal instead of waiting for the hurricane tracked to point in my direction. Is this not a thing in hurricane zones?

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Take a short break from ST and read my blog:
http://tri-banter.blogspot.com/

I don't live in an disaster area, but I have that stuff anyway. Frist you never know. Second, the canned foods and such are just crap we bought 5 years ago and now just takes up space in the pantry. Running out to the store just prevents me from eating quinoa and vienna sausages.

Desantis evacuated them early.

If anyone has to evacuate with animals we can easily handle horses, cows, mules, dogs, cats. Plenty of cross pasture, hay and I've even got some RV hookups with electricity and septic

PM me if you need a place to hunker down.

best of luck to FL peeps!

/r

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Steve

I'm up in BC, Canada and supposed to fly home to Jacksonville on Friday, but the most recent map shows the worst of it being there that day. Might be flying home Wednesday or else I'm gonna be stuck here.

Family is suppose to fly to Kona on Friday. #FuckHurricaneIan

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http://www.sfuelsgolonger.com

I’m on the south East corner of the state, palm beach, and even tho I’m out of the cone of death, I’m keeping my eye on this one. The hurricanes don’t really care about spaghetti models.

I have t out my shutters down yet, but they are pretty easy and only take about a half hour for the whole house.

Stay safe everyone

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"When the power of love overcomes the love of power the world will know peace." Jimi Hendrix

My son is an Ian

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They constantly try to escape from the darkness outside and within
Dreaming of systems so perfect that no one will need to be good T.S. Eliot

They are actually doing just that. They have mandatory evacs in certain zones. I think Zone A left today and Zone B leaves tomorrow.

Thanks for thinking of me. I am on vacation in Montana with my wife after driving for 2.5 days to get here. It looks like I'm going to cut it a few days short which doesn't thrill either one of us. Especially knowing that I've got to drive 2.5 days, load up and then get straight to work.

I'm happy for the chance to earn more money this year, but hate cutting short a vacation.

Best of luck and safe wishes for all of those in Ian's path.

I drove north on I65 yesterday through TN/KY/IN and saw convoy after convoy of utility trucks heading south.

Well shit. Latest NHC forecast has the track line coming within 10 miles of my house. Cat 1 or TS by the time it gets to me but was hoping we would be unscathed.

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Favorite Gear: Dimond | Cadex | Desoto Sport | Hoka One One

Hunker down and stay safe everyone.

UF closed for the rest of the week just minutes ago. A bit like the gator secondary did last week.

My wife, son, daughter and their respective spouses and children (total 4) have been at Disney since Sunday. Plan to return on Saturday. Park is closing Wednesday and Thursday so they are going to hunker down at the hotel (The Contemporary). I wisely stayed home to watch the dog.

My brother's an Ian :-) my family is enjoying this one (the name, not that there is a major storm wreaking havoc in people's lives)

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maybe she's born with it, maybe it's chlorine
If you're injured and need some sympathy, PM me and I'm very happy to write back.
disclaimer: PhD not MD

The latest forecast has the track line now about 20 miles east of my house and over the ocean. Earlier forecasts had it 10 miles to the west. We are still dead center in the cone so it’s coming regardless.

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Favorite Gear: Dimond | Cadex | Desoto Sport | Hoka One One

If it’s any consolation I was driving south from MA on Sunday and there was an army of electrical repair trucks driving south, no doubt heading to FL.

Good luck!

Hoping for the best for everyone in path. Have winter home on FL west coast; can’t wait for next round of insurance hikes, but dang the winter training is good.

So far, everything I have seen has run smoothly.

Utility trucks in route. Plywood stocked up for boarding windows (I did all mine today), lots of water and food on store shelves, propane trucks were delivering, etc

All seemed spot on given a situation like this. It’s a little more chaotic closer to the water, only a mile from me, but evacuations have been done.

Driving around tonight for take-out food. Everyone was shut down at 8pm. Rain just began to start in Tampa/ Clearwater/ St Pete.

Tomorrow will begin the storm.

I would not want to be in the Sarasota-Fort Myers area. It’s going to get gnarly there.

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Favorite Gear: Dimond | Cadex | Desoto Sport | Hoka One One

My sister and brother in law live in Cape Coral, I'm afraid they may be properly fucked. No idea why they didn't bug out when they had the opportunity. I cannot stop thinking about them and hope they come out OK.

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The secret of a long life is you try not to shorten it.
-Nobody

wishing relief for all the FL folk once the worst has passed

They are not in a good spot. To make matters worse looks like potentially on the dirty side of the storm.

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Favorite Gear: Dimond | Cadex | Desoto Sport | Hoka One One

I'm sitting on pins and needles until I hear from them. I texted with my sister yesterday and they had their houses boarded up and the inside all set.

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The secret of a long life is you try not to shorten it.
-Nobody

Fuck, to top it off I now see Polk county is in a hurricane warning, my in-laws live in Polk City. Why would anyone voluntarily live in Florida?

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The secret of a long life is you try not to shorten it.
-Nobody

Hopefully they have a two story house and can move furniture upstairs.
7-11 ft storm surge expected south of the eye.

The wife's family is Scottish and my dad was a John so Ian got the nod.

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They constantly try to escape from the darkness outside and within
Dreaming of systems so perfect that no one will need to be good T.S. Eliot

My uncle lives just south of Fort Meyers... he's hard headed and a history of poor decision making so of course he stayed.

I texted with him this morning and he said "At home. Obviously I didn't expect this."

I wished him luck. But damn it. WTF?

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Suffer Well.

Why don't they just bug out now? They are just going to be sitting in a hotel during a big storm. If they are flying out maybe facing delays. What is the point of that.

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They constantly try to escape from the darkness outside and within
Dreaming of systems so perfect that no one will need to be good T.S. Eliot

You have clearly never experienced the exodus chaos of an approaching hurricane. It is too late to evacuate now.

This is true but I would have bugged out a few days ago I think. Rather than stay potentially without electricity in the midst of chaos.

---

They constantly try to escape from the darkness outside and within
Dreaming of systems so perfect that no one will need to be good T.S. Eliot

Single story......both my sister and mother in law. Polk city I am not sure how bad the water levels will rise in her area but Cape Coral, my sister had canals within a block on three sides of her house.

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The secret of a long life is you try not to shorten it.
-Nobody

Do they have access to attic, if so, get ready now up there with food and water.

It's a good thing that the current President is not a vengeful asshole like the previous one or else Florida would be well and truly fucked.

Stay safe.

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How does Danny Hart sit down with balls that big?

Not sure if they have an attic, I'd imagine so. I haven't been able to get in touch with her since last night. Trying to track power and cell outages form half way across the country.

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The secret of a long life is you try not to shorten it.
-Nobody

Looks like Port Charlotte-Fort Myers-Cape Coral-Sanibel areas are going to get absolutely rocked. Almost a Cat 5 and nearing land. My parent’s good friends have a snowbird home in Punta Gorda. That area is going to get annihilated.

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Favorite Gear: Dimond | Cadex | Desoto Sport | Hoka One One

If you are going to ride out a hurricane, there really isn't a better place to do so than Disney. I had a buddy who rode out one the last time Orlando got hurricane force winds at the Grand Floridian. He said that they did get cold box meals for a day or two, but watching the guy play grand piano in the glass atrium during the worst of the storm was worth it. Plus the parks open ASAP and the you get the lightest crowds you will ever see.

If they go up into the attic, they need to make sure that they carry an axe with them. If the storm surge reaches 18 feet, they could drown in the attic without a way to get out. I don't want to scare anyone, but typically there is no way out of an attic except down.

Best wishes for everyone

This storm looks like a monster.

My parents used to live in the trailer park on Sanibel. They are no longer around - but I have a special place in my heart for that trailer park - it is such a great community.

My uncle was a tour guide at Ding Darling too.

Praying for everyone in the path.

I have a coworker at Disney right now. I think he timed this on purpose.

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Favorite Gear: Dimond | Cadex | Desoto Sport | Hoka One One

I haven't been able to contact her all day. Near as I can tell, and to no surprise, power and cell service is out. I"m just sitting around feeling helpless watching the storm coverage and hoping for the best. On the positive side, my mother-in-law (Polk county) texted, just a little rain and no wind, Ian is expected to drop to a cat 1 by the time it reaches her area.

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The secret of a long life is you try not to shorten it.
-Nobody

The weather channel is retreating.

That’s not a good sign.

They're standing on the beach.....

We did this in 2017. We went down before they knew where the storm was going. It ended up being completely fine we were in Bay Lake. The cast members were in contemporary which sounded like it was doing some swaying.

That said this one looks like it’s going more direct over Orlando so we’ll see.

Okay but the last “Big” one they were walking around Naples looking for palm fronds that had been blown off trees to film and puddles.

The GMAN wrote:

Looks like Port Charlotte-Fort Myers-Cape Coral-Sanibel areas are going to get absolutely rocked. Almost a Cat 5 and nearing land. My parent’s good friends have a snowbird home in Punta Gorda. That area is going to get annihilated.

My buddy from high school has a sailboat charter business in Port Charlotte. I'm guessing it was not practical or he couldn't to the boat out of there. Looks like he was planning to secure it the best he could and get out of dodge.

https://www.facebook.com/100050890156069/videos/656699529045730/

Fixed.

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Pink? Maybe. Maybe not. You decide.

No flights available. Nearest rental car was a 4 hour uber drive away. I'd rather be in the Disney hotel vice at an airport hoping to catch a flight. Interesting tidbit, I was wondering about the monorail system used with the hotels at Disney. My son told me they have special cars that plug "hole" created by the monorail system so wind/rain dont damage the hotel.

That's ingenious

Fort Meyers reportedly:

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Suffer Well.

More telling is that they have closed the Waffle Houses in the storm's path.

That's the highest level of fucked.

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Suffer Well.

My parent's home is outside Port Charlotte, just across the line into Lake Suzy. The eye will go right over their house.

High tide is at 6:45pm. That’s likely to be when the storm surge peaks.

fucking hell. I am trying to keep a positive mindset but I just know my sister's house is likely or will be under water when the high tide hits.

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The secret of a long life is you try not to shorten it.
-Nobody

Not that it is much comfort at the moment but statistically they'll be okay. Try to keep a positive outlook the best you can do.

Weather Channel guy said Fort Myers Beach is experiencing the worst possible scenario imaginable.

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Favorite Gear: Dimond | Cadex | Desoto Sport | Hoka One One

Also remember that the Weather Channel is a bit disaster porn too in these situations

Weather Channel folks said the worst of the storm surge would happen after 6 PM. It’s already nuts. I can’t imagine worse.

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Favorite Gear: Dimond | Cadex | Desoto Sport | Hoka One One

Cantore just got drilled by a small tree limb. That guy deserves a medal for his years of service.

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Favorite Gear: Dimond | Cadex | Desoto Sport | Hoka One One

If I recall you're on the East coast and it looks like the storm will now hit on both sides of Florida. Hope you're safe.
Looks like the Gatorville area will be relatively spared. Seeing about 1 to 1.5in of rain per day and winds not expected to be higher than 35-40mph
Still everything closed, just in case the storm changes path again.

A question to the thread in general, if you choose not to evacuate when you are told to do so, can insurance deny your claim when your car is totaled? I get you may have to evacuate and leave a car, but that isn't the same as just saying F it and watching it float away.

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Pactimo brand ambassador, ask me about promo codes

Probably not IIRC

The highest point on Ft Meyers Beach is 3' above sea level, and the widest point is about 2000 ft. A lot of it is only 100 ft wide. It going to get bad down there.

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''Sweeney - you can both crush your AG *and* cruise in dead last!! 😂 '' Murphy's Law

I need to stay off the internet and away from the Weather Channel for a while

https://www.winknews.com/...a/#/rounds/1/gallery

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The secret of a long life is you try not to shorten it.
-Nobody

my parents in venice beach. last I heard no water or power. luckily they filled all dishes and pots with water day before.

Lots of water. Just not potable.

I'm pretty sure it was named after the Blockheads frontman.

I hope this is just a blip but I lost power already. The storm is nowhere near northeast Florida yet.

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Favorite Gear: Dimond | Cadex | Desoto Sport | Hoka One One

A friend has a house on a waterway in Cape Coral. He and his wife have been up here (Mass) most of the summer. He's waiting to hear what the damage is.

Checking in from Fort Myers. Been riding the storm out with wife and one kid in my small office two story office building that includes a back up generator. Its located just south of downtown Fort Myers. The building has performed well, its built like a concrete bunker with hurricane windows. As of 7:40 PM, the back side of the storm is still giving us an amazing blow so its not quite over.

The rain before the storm hit probably has flooded the eastern half of Lee County. It was already saturated in that area and was above normal water levels before the storm hit. The pics and stories we are getting from Naples friends are bad. Lots of storm surge ruining houses in Naples. Getting similar texts from coastal FT Myers friends.

Not sure what we will wake up to tomorrow. I don't know yet how my house fared. It has a new roof but did not come with hurricane shutters. Fingers crossed. Decided to ride out storm at my office due to its bunker like construction and back up generator. Power has been down since around 2PM, internet since around 4 PM. Cell service not bad yet but that tends to fade after cell tower generators/batteries die.

The County and the City have issued county wide boil water notices. Now I know why we stockpiled all those bottles of water earlier this week.

Glad you're safe.

If you don't mind a question.... why did you decide to ride it out? Why not evacuate?

I would love nothing more than to pack up and head north for a week when one of these hit my neighborhood. But I am a co owner of a business and need to be able to reopen the business as soon as practical after one these. Most employees prefer that was well as soon as the have power.

I rode out Charlie and Wilma in place, We evacuated on the spur of the moment about 48 hours before Irma came through.

I have my wife and my daughter the option of going to east coast or riding it out in my building. They choose to stay. It’s a really sturdy building so that helps.

I stayed and rode out Hurricane Michael which hit us as a Cat 5. I understand why you stayed. For one, I would rather take my chances in a well built house than traveling on the road with hundreds of thousands of others, and looking for a place to stay.

For me, I couldn't leave town. My wife had to work at a storm/evacuation shelter, my father was in an extended care place after having fallen the week before and breaking 13 ribs, and my mother had early dementia. I sent my kids to stay with my mom (half mile away) as they have a concrete reinforced storm room.

My house has a storm room, though it isn't as well built as my parents' room. I almost retreated to it a couple of times, but I was glad that I stayed. I had an upstairs window blow in. I felt the change in pressure and was able to go put it back in place and board it up from the inside. If I hadn't been there to do that, my kids' bedrooms, closets and bathrooms would have been ruined.

I am happy that you are okay and hope your house suffers no major damage.

Initially, they were on Clearwater Beach…. Near me. They went south and most locals took that as a sign of relief for our area.

I spoke with a friend in Fort Myers and all I can do is feel for the people in that area. Unbelievable the destruction a hurricane can cause.

Adding details…. Initially, weather channel was on Clearwater Beach and they said this was point of impact. I believe that was on Sunday/ Monday. Kind of a blur as I was preparing. On Tuesday, yesterday morning, the neighbor stopped boarding his house when they said they moved the point of impact to Fort Myers area and Weather channel apparently was there now.

People were evacuating Clearwater/ St Pete/ Tampa and DeSantis was in Largo Monday speaking… I’m stating this as I am guessing Fort Myers area didn’t have as much time to plan as this area was the expected impact area.

I checked flights myself Monday morning and there was nothing and Tampa closed the airport Tuesday.

I was told by locals if you try to leave too late, you risk running out of gas and no way to fill when power goes out and gas stations are worthless.

Not all areas are evacuation zones either, depends where your house is located in the area.

No word yet from my sister or bro-in-law in Cape Coral. Looks like power is still down in their neighborhood, can't tell if cell service (Verizon) is still down.

On the bright side, my mother-in-law up in Polk county got it pretty easy, lots of rain but winds looked to top out around 50 mph.

ETA: on the more positive side I have read about any deaths related in Florida related to Ian.

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The secret of a long life is you try not to shorten it.
-Nobody

Anyone heard anything from the barrier islands (Sanibel, Captiva, Boca Grande)?

It looks like Ian made a direct hit to these, and they are at a super low elevation. Perhaps it's better that they are islands, and the surge passed right around them?

It basically just exited Florida and will turn north and head up the coast with the eye 50+ miles offshore. I hope that means less wind and rain for me.

Looks like will come ashore again around Hilton Head.

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Favorite Gear: Dimond | Cadex | Desoto Sport | Hoka One One

Bridge to Sanibel was destroyed looks like most of the island was underwater.

My parents lived there during Charley and bridge was down then for a long time- but did not look nearly this bad.

I feel for Naples - it wasn’t supposed to be hit bad and got a ton of flooding. My brother has friends who evaced from Tampa to Naples based on the earlier path.

Saw bridge connecting Sanibel is gone, collapsed yesterday. County officials do not know how many stayed out there after the evacuation order. Could be a while before rescue crews can get there.

Crews are in Cape Coral this morning going door-to-door. Still haven't heard from my sister.

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The secret of a long life is you try not to shorten it.
-Nobody

When my parents and brothers evacuated for Katrina; I knew that they were leaving but I didn't hear from them for almost a week since all 504 numbers basically didn't work.

I am confident your family members are fine but understand exactly how you feel.

My MIL lives in Cape Coral and my wife has not heard from her yet. I have to believe there was significant flooding, they live right on one of the canals.

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_____
TEAM HD
Each day is what you make of it so make it the best day possible.

Same here, my sister's house has canals on three sides. Cape Coral looks to be the hardest hit on the mainland. I read this morning rescuers were in Cape Coral going door to door, so that's a positive sign and I'll take it for now.

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The secret of a long life is you try not to shorten it.
-Nobody

My wife was just asking her address I think because of the door to door situation. She's freaking out pretty good right now.

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_____
TEAM HD
Each day is what you make of it so make it the best day possible.

Kinda cool how everybody is pitching together and getting stuff done taking care of peoples.

---

They constantly try to escape from the darkness outside and within
Dreaming of systems so perfect that no one will need to be good T.S. Eliot

Sounds like a lot of the roads and bridges in the area, are impassable which slows everything down. I was hoping to see some drone footage by now, the skies are clear according to Weather Underground.

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The secret of a long life is you try not to shorten it.
-Nobody

I’m so sorry. I feel for you guys.

I have to say Desantis is doing a good job handling this. Hate his shenanigans but does seem to have shit together managing through this.

Agreed. From an outsider looking in, if I was unaware of Desantis prior to this storm I'd think his shit doesn't stink. I also give props to the President, his administration wasted not time pre-staging valuable recovery resources.

The rest of the Governors in the predicted path also seem to be on the ball a bit quicker. Or I'm just that more in-tune to the news this time around.

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The secret of a long life is you try not to shorten it.
-Nobody

I think DeSantis is generally an effective leader (COVID response and policy notwithstanding) but I REALLY dislike his pandering to the shithead part of his base.

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Favorite Gear: Dimond | Cadex | Desoto Sport | Hoka One One

Just saw some pictures and videos from Fort Myers Beach. Yikes!

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Favorite Gear: Dimond | Cadex | Desoto Sport | Hoka One One

Where did you see that? I heard a report about how bad FMB was this morning on CBS news, but haven't seen anything all day.

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''Sweeney - you can both crush your AG *and* cruise in dead last!! 😂 '' Murphy's Law

Did I dream that Trump threw paper towel rolls to hurricane survivors? What were they going to do with paper towels? Omg. Psycho!

We have the resources and logistical expertise to do a fantastic job for people. I’m very, very glad to hear that aid & relief appear to be well-coordinated.

I just used Google News: https://www.google.com/...p;bih=1075&dpr=2

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Favorite Gear: Dimond | Cadex | Desoto Sport | Hoka One One

Thanks, what a mess!

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''Sweeney - you can both crush your AG *and* cruise in dead last!! 😂 '' Murphy's Law

Next landfall is Charleston area. I am currently on Isle of the Palms. Beachfront. Going to be a fun 24 hours

CBS news is now showing videos of the wreckage. It looks so much worse on my TV.

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''Sweeney - you can both crush your AG *and* cruise in dead last!! 😂 '' Murphy's Law

But that is a major part of being a BAD leader ...

---

Advanced Aero TopTube Storage for Road, Gravel, & Tri...ZeroSlip & Direct-mount, made in the USA.
DarkSpeedWorks.com.....Reviews.....Insta.....Facebook
--

This Facebook page called Florida’s weather has some before and after pictures. Terrible.

https://www.facebook.com/FLWeather

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clm
Nashville, TN
https://twitter.com/ironclm | http://ironclm.typepad.com

My MIL finally contacted my wife. They’re safe, they got a lot of water but not sure about the damage yet. They were able to go for a drive and found a cell signal, otherwise, they are still in the dark.

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_____
TEAM HD
Each day is what you make of it so make it the best day possible.

That's good news

Just heard my aunts house might be wrecked in Daytona beach. She’s on oxygen and had to evacuate by boat today. Water in the house over her knees. Bummer. Sounds like they just got hammered with endless rain and this was the east side of the state.

Checking in again. Went to my house today the check for damage. Over the past 3 years 70 % of the houses in my subdivision (now 18 yo) have replaced their roofs. It appears all the houses with new roofs, including mine, did well. Unfortunately, the houses with old roofs including my next door neighbor created a storm of flying asphalt shingles around the hood. Also unfortunately a shingle took out my a portion of daughters upstairs bedroom window. Fortunately, we scavenged a bitch of plywood this morning and with the assistance of a neighbor I was able to secure the window quickly. Remarkably, the inside damage was minimal to her bed room.

Power is out just about everywhere. What little we hear indicates it may be quite a bit more than just a few days to get it restored.

Found a pizza place open. Ordered pizza at 3:30, they told us it would be ready for pick up 3 hours later. Pizza was very good.

Hearing one area of fort myers called Iona was hit hard with storm surge. There were several old time but nice mobile home parks in that area. Speculation, is between those parks and the others that rode out the storm on FM Beach, there may be triple digit deaths

Someone may have already said this, but cell towers don't handle hurricanes well. We lost our cell phones (Verizon) for a couple of weeks IIRC. Hopefully they just can't get cell coverage and will check in with you soon.

Glad to hear your house got through it relatively unscathed.

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clm
Nashville, TN
https://twitter.com/ironclm | http://ironclm.typepad.com

Sort of off topic, but I wonder what the ham radio scene is like down there. Seems like one of the rare scenarios where having a six foot whip antenna would actually come in handy.

This is where I think star link is going to be really useful in the future as the cost goes down or if they start partnering with Apple/google for emergency coverage.

Hmm. Maybe, but I don't really see much of a benefit, except maybe for rural areas.

As true 5G rolls out (vs. what we have now, which is mostly LTE dressed up as 5G), urban areas will start to have microcells every few hundred feet. With mostly fiber backhaul. That fiber backhaul is pretty darn weather resilient.

The real problem is power. If power goes down, it all goes dark. Network cores should have their own power backup, but the cells themselves usually don't. I don't see how Starlink really helps that, unless every microcell has backup power (battery?) to power the Starlink system. But if it has backup power, than....it can just use the terrestrial fiber. If shit *really* hits the fan and fiber goes dark for long periods even as power comes back on, then I could see Starlink being useful at the per-tower level.

Very thankful and fortunate this morning. Power and internet has been restored to my house. Now we can start helping others recover.
Not sure about the major repair needed to the power grid but this morning near my office I could see streetlights 2 blocks north and 1 block south turned on. So power is getting restored bit by bit.

Gainesville shut down for the most part. UF, schools etc but the storm barely brushed us. Had winds that barely hit 30mph, a bit of rain and that’s about it. Heck I took the kids for a jog in the stroller yesterday morning.

Some areas got hit bad and it’s circling back towards SC now.

Very happy to hear! Best of luck in your recovery efforts.

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The secret of a long life is you try not to shorten it.
-Nobody

[EDIT]: Awesome artist's rendering. Not Ian. Full video here:

https://www.instagram.com/p/Bxm9rhcn4w8/

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"100% of the people who confuse correlation and causation end up dying."

What city is that?

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Advanced Aero TopTube Storage for Road, Gravel, & Tri...ZeroSlip & Direct-mount, made in the USA.
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It's a still from a fake video. But that is Miami.

GREAT NEWS!!!! Just heard from my brother-in-law. They're both safe. House isn't too bad. No power still and spotty cell service. Today is a good day!

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The secret of a long life is you try not to shorten it.
-Nobody

phew. go out for a run or walk and get some breeze through your head . . .

Pre Ian: Average Florida home insurance policy 4500 average in the nation 1500..

Post Ian: Can you get home insurance in Florida?

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They constantly try to escape from the darkness outside and within
Dreaming of systems so perfect that no one will need to be good T.S. Eliot

Maybe I’m missing something, star link isn’t running through a tower network it’s just a small dish at your house. Yes you need backup power to run it, but you can have internet up as soon as the storm passes and you put the dish out.

Well you can still get home and flood insurance in New Orleans so my guess is "yes."

I'm missing something! I thought you were proposing Star Link as a way to make cell service more resilient. But that's apparently not at all what you meant.

I agree that Starlink is a fine *alternative* to cell service. But it'd be completely independent. I don't see why it'd require any Apple/Google partnership. Once you set up Starlink, any phone or device can just use it.

I could see partnership with government first responders or disaster response...e.g. having government vehicles have built in Starlink and freely available WiFi, so as they travel around, they're providing free internet coverage. There's already what's called "CoLT" or "cell on light truck." Verizon had this demo emergency response vehicle that does it, but Starlink could just make that cheaper and more ubiquitous.

My insurance is going up 31% this coming year, before Ian. If Desantis so bright, let’s see him figure this out. And property taxes to help rebuild infrastructure. Good luck Mussolini II. No wonder he wants to run for Prez. Florida does not have seem to have bright future.

You understand that delta between the two means yes you can, right?

Great to hear!

I heard from my uncle last night from Bonita Springs... not any damage to his home or flooding. No power of course and none expected for days.

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Suffer Well.

How much has your property value gone up since the last time your premiums were adjusted? Similarly, how much have construction/replacement costs gone up in that same time frame?

Kick ass, it's great to hear no loss of life from our families and the extended LR families.

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The secret of a long life is you try not to shorten it.
-Nobody

Let me know when you see the irony in your post.....

Ruh Roh

And Houston. And Galveston. And Beaumont.

The more interesting thing is that can get government issues insurance. Private insurance is a different question and a different answer.

Following that if the government is the main insurer and the government is also in charge of zoning then you might start to see restrictions that wouldn't be there if the government didn't have skin in the game.

What generally happens is that some insurance companies may suspend writing new policies in certain areas for X amount of time.

Odds are it might be difficult getting a new policy in southwest Florida for the foreseeable future. Most other parts of the state should be just fine.

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Favorite Gear: Dimond | Cadex | Desoto Sport | Hoka One One

I find it ironic you tend repub at national level. If you live in Chicago I can understand one party frustration. FL not my permanent residence. Think it will still be cheaper to own then rent….and only have a few more years of tri training in winter before I hang up my shoes. I hope Fl rebounds, but climate change deniers, mostly your party, don’t offer much hope. But thanks for your concern. My winter home there survived and have power, internet not yet. Going down next couple of weeks to volunteer and if needed (& legal per hoa) rent my condo out if housing needed for displaced folks.

Before Ian, for 2 years owned property value is up 58% +/-. Have not looked at replacement cost percentages. Only have few more years of winter living before selling (not big fan of Zwifting).

Material costs reflect inflation and everyone knows about that and it is country wide. My permanent home rates up about 6-7%. I think a major portion of rate increase is probabilities of weather damage. You know the thing that dumarses deny.

Is not insurance Federal and zoning local meaning instead moral hazard is introduced?

The point was you wanted the governor to fix insurance rates i.e. government intervention in business while calling him Mussolini who you know nationalized businesses.

Glad everything is fine though.

Did not say/intend that I wanted him to fix. He is one always going around tooting his horn and insurance rates one of his toot toots. He gets flood of Covid funding and thinks he generated a state surplus, but blames Joe for inflation. And seems with his attack of Disney….well

Govt sucks, but many of our corporate/for profit captains do too. Maybe yo and I can agree that Bret Farve sucks too.

Flood insurance is. But FL has had to develop a state insurance of last resort kind of program since so many property insurers avoid Florida. And if your house blew down before it washed away flood insurance won't cover it.

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I'm beginning to think that we are much more fucked than I thought.

That is true for flood insurance. Florida has a state run "insurance of last resort" called Citizens that offers standard homeowners polices including hurricane coverage. It was created because most of the national private insurers have stopped doing business in Florida.

Nationwide pulled out of Florida completely for property insurance several years ago. Several others have too. We aren't coming back. The risk is too high and the state wouldn't allow rate increases to satisfy our actuaries.

People mention New Orleans, Houston, Galveston, .... But those places get hit every now and then. FL is always in the crosshairs. FL has had 8 major hurricanes since 2000. Texas has had 8 since 1960.

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I'm beginning to think that we are much more fucked than I thought.

This was a big problem for people in the boulder area with the fire this year. They thought they were insured fully but because of the replacement factor it didn’t come close with the new build. That reminds me that I need to adjust ours to account for that.

We live in a very similar type of area backed up to open space. There is no reason we couldn’t have that same problem someday with a fire.

Interesting

No state income tax offsets quite a bit.

Amazing people in the “eye” came out ok. A friend in Fort Myers was also ok. Just a Little damage to his soffit.

I just saw the staging area of the power line workers in Clearwater. Geez. The compound looks like they set up for war. Tons of workers and job trailers, RV’s, etc. so many people they had flag workers to direct traffic in and out.

Power came back on at my house just a few minutes ago.

True, but someone has to pay. Tourists? No beaches, they ain’t coming. Sales taxes? Whole Food store prices generally higher in My area in FL than back home. Higher retail means higher sales tax. The quiet or less noticed way to get funds needed. But I am no economist.

Fun part is that Cititzens that knew it was underfunded, because it was not allowed to raise its rates high enough due to the law limiting them. So if they don't have enough money to pay for Ian damage, they then go to this system:

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1. Citizens Policyholder Surcharge

• One-time assessment
• Citizens policyholders only
• Up to 45% of premium (15% per account)

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2. Regular Assessment**

• One-time assessment
• Private-market policyholders, including, but not limited to homeowners, auto, and specialty and surplus lines policies
• Up to 2% of premium

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3. Emergency Assessment

• Single- or multiyear assessment
• Citizens and private-market policyholders
• Up to 30% of premium per year until any remaining deficit is eliminated (10% per account)

So it is possibly that even people with insurance not through Citizen may have to be pay an extra 30% above their already high premiums.

Going to be really interesting to see how this shakes out.

Florida property taxes are high. When my parents moved from Sanibel (small inland ranch- not big mansion) to Colorado there was not a big difference - tax just shifted from property to income.

We doubled our coverage after hearing from friends impacted by that fire.

I wonder if these subsidized programs should cover only an average house or something. Do your 10m house can only be covered for $1m in insurance. Ocean front Opulence is self insured?

Yeah. That's an artist's video rendering, not Ian.

Full video: https://www.instagram.com/p/Bxm9rhcn4w8/

I just thought the awesome scale of the shot was appropriate here.

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"100% of the people who confuse correlation and causation end up dying."

Getting back on track, reportedly the eye of what remains of Ian passed just a few miles from my house here in NC about an hour ago.

Had some wind, lots of rain but rather mild for all intents & purposes. Just drizzling rain now. Supposed to stop in a couple of hours or so......................

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Pink? Maybe. Maybe not. You decide.

Can’t be that general regarding property taxes. Look at Chicago suburbs verses coastal Florida and I bet Florida looks inexpensive.

Lots to into a states tax base as well as property taxes. Just saying you can’t make a general wide-based statement.

My wife actually talked to her mom today and they still don't have power but got little to no damage. A street over from them is almost demolished, only about 100 yards away. Very happy to hear about the family and glad everyone is ok.

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TEAM HD
Each day is what you make of it so make it the best day possible.

Glad to hear you go your power back and things are going better.

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TEAM HD
Each day is what you make of it so make it the best day possible.

One other thing. Florida has a minimum 2% hurricane deductible. For those not familiar with percentage deductibles - it is 2% of your policy limit. So, if your house has a policy limit of $500,000, your hurricane deductible is $10,000.

Also, the insurance company can deny hurricane damage to your fence unless the fence is mechanically attached to the house.

They give concessions in order to entice companies to continue providing coverage in Florida.

My SIL was able to get a call out today from South Ft Myers area. She lives off Gladiolus Drive for those familiar with area. They had flooding during storm. but it has receded. Only damage was a few shingles are missingj. They are about 7 miles from FT Myers Beach which looks to be hit hard. The pier on Ft Myers beach is gone.

A story about bad timing...

My mother rented a place in a Port Charlotte mobile home community this winter. She was looking for a winter place, knew a few folks who had places in this community and gave it a shot. She spent three months down there and had all her kids and grandkids down, some of her siblings, met some great people...she LOVED it. She's also super close with her siblings and, for a variety of reasons, this mobile home community had three new owners: my mother bought a place for winter living; one of my aunts and her husband bought a place (site unseen...still) for winter living; and another aunt bought a place for full-time living. That aunt just moved down in June.

Well the aunt who moved down is in a hotel now, looking for long term housing. She's had it ROUGH - divorced about 8 years ago; two sons who are totally aimless, one of them was recently in detox and is battling alcohol issues and has never held down a real job; she's been in and out of cancer treatments; and to top it all off her hotel room had cockroaches. Anyway it sounds like her place was wiped out. My mother and other aunts places were spared, but one roof was ripped off and some windows are blown out. Even if they're repaired it sounds like the electric grid for this community won't be fixed for weeks if not months, not a priority since 90% of the homes are vacant until December.

Not a great introduction to Florida living for my family, that's for dang sure!

RELATEDLY: If anyone has any info or resources or advice on securing long term housing, either in the Florida Tampa/Ft Myers area specifically or post-disaster in general, please PM me!

Something like 20-30 percent of homeowner policies in Florida are from the gov't run insurer of last resort. When that many policies are from insurer of last resort you have a big problem. National companies like State farm are avoiding Florida. Yes you can get insurance but it's price may become unaffordable.

https://www.flchamber.com/...-million-policies/#:~:text=Citizens%20Property%20Insurance%20is%20the,insurance%20market%20is%20in%20crisis.

The Florida chamber of commerce describes their insurance market at being in crisis. Before Ian.

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They constantly try to escape from the darkness outside and within
Dreaming of systems so perfect that no one will need to be good T.S. Eliot

Sounds like your sister was very fortunate. We have friends off of Gladiolus that had flooded garages and flooded cars.

Just got off the phone with my sister. They never got their notification to evacuate, even though all their neighbors did, but they called it when the winds hit 60 mph and the storm surge forecast jumped up. Instead of heading north like most other were, they haded east about 3 hours and found a hotel to stay in and returned the next day.

Somehow their house remained relatively unscathed, some minor roof damage and lost all the screening from the pool seems to be it. No flood damage, the water only made it as high as the top of the driveway, which is weird because houses on their street sustained massive if not complete loss in damage and/or flooding.

Sounds like she may be done with Florida. Can't say as I blame her.

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The secret of a long life is you try not to shorten it.
-Nobody

Yes very fortunate. There was flooding in their street. The entrance was flooded for sometime on Gladiolus. There house is about 4 ft higher than the street so that was enough to keep them dry. Everything was built after Andrew so that may have affected elevations. Also, I understand insurance is affected by how high above sea level your house is so perhaps builders elevated the houses for that reason.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-63120717


This report says nearly 100 deaths so far but I'd read another on CNN that it was 101 with more expected.


It completely missed us in Jacksonville, thankfully. As far as hurricanes go, I try to keep it all in perspective and recognize that we (northeast Florida) have it pretty good, with the exception of Hurricane Matthew and Irma. That said, I don't know how much longer I want to put up with finding an insurance company that will cover us every other year or so. We already got dropped in 2018 and now I'm hearing State Farm is going to stop ensuring homes in Florida built before 2010. I live 12 miles from the beach, but I'm now paying what someone actually living on the beach would have paid 13 years ago when we moved here.


Might be time to drop some not-so-subtle hints about moving to Oregon.