What do you mean by safe? Safe that event will happen? Safe that you don’t have to worry about compromising your health?

Won't cover the health risk aspect but I think 2021 could be a repeat of 2020. If you want to race you are better off looking at smaller events. Ironman might struggle due to the number of participants, closed roads etc. Here in the UK we've had a few events that have met the covid requirement to get permits, so I managed to get a half IM done in sept, and have entered again for June next year as I'm confident they will be able to run it. As for the travel aspect no idea, but its a big financial undertaking to have to cancel. I wanted to do a euro 70.3 and xterra but not going to risk it.

I think going back to "normal" might happen if despite rising infections, deaths stabilise or stay comparatively low, and then you can argue what's the necessity for restrictions, and govts want to get economies back on track. The next three months will dictate whether that's the case or not.
Widespread vaccine is also a factor, but no way that will be rolled out sufficiently for 2021 to be a normal season.

I wouldn't "invest" the money.

I meant more about the race not being cancelled and not making travel plans and training my ass off I luv to find I get stuck quarantining for 14 days on arrival and return to USA and stuff like that


I would think fall of 2021 should be “safe” from problems.

Thoughts?

Nobody here knows any better than anyone else on the net, you'll just get opinions and bets.... Speaking about bets, If you're talking US, I would bet safely that we will lag further behind Europe and the rest of the world in the development and distribution of a viable vaccine since for some stupid reason we aren't working with all other countries on this together.

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808 > NYC > PDX > YVR
2024 Races: Taupo

My thought is you train at a moderately high level for the purposes of general fitness. I would take out any IM specific trianing like super long rides and long runs. I'd cap long rides at 3 hrs and long runs at 90 minutes, keep running overall volume up and focus on intensity in swim and bike (if every swim is not intensity and most riders are not, then you're wasting time). If you are on 10-14 hrs per week on an intensity plan, it barely takes 6-8 weeks to get IM fit.

Race local olympics and sprints that likely happen all over next year and just wait to see what shakes out for large events especially those involving travel and overseas travel. If you can race big events that involve travel, you'll be 6-8 weeks away from getting Ironman specific but you can easily do a lot of local racing on that.

This way you don't need a crystal ball and you're focusing on what you can control without runnign the risk of getting frustrated with the world around you (heck we have enough of that anyway).

I think they will happen in 2021. The coronavirus infection rates are at the highest levels they have been, but everything is opening up like it’s over. We seem to be going from a preventative type of strategy to an open everything a just react to the outbreaks. While I’m not opposed to the opening, I wish people in the US would treat this seriously and avoid the large parties, stop opposition to face masks, and keep social distancing.

I like this idea. I think I will start with this approach.

Use this plan to get your 400m swim time down, your mile and 5K run time, and your 20 min bike power up. The better all of these get on the 14 hrs per week plan, the faster you will be in an Ironman. Then if Ironman is on next year, we're set and ready to go in 8 weeks and we're starting from higher thresholds.

This. All of this.

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I think 2021 will be a transitional year, not by any means as bad as 2020, but far from normal. We'll see a good number of Ironman races but many will still be cancelled, more so in the first half of the year. Registering for an international IM will be financially risky because entrance requirements are fluid and the host country might be open when you register, but closed at the time of the race due to a resurgence in infection rates. Further, even if the country is open for travel, the availability of international flights is sketchy and many airlines are under significant financial pressure. Best to plan for domestic races only.

By 2022, I think we will start to see a return to normalcy, either because there are effective vaccines, and if not, because the fatigue of restrictions will be so great by then there will be more acceptance of the health risks.

I think two additional factors will kick in by late 2021 and 2022:

1. While at this point we long to get back to how we used to live, its like a rich person who is suddenly poor. Initially, they want to go back to being rich, but then get used to being living off less and enjoying life with access to less. We will get used to accepting less and working with it. I see how it works at my local pool, At first all the restrictions were annoying until I suddenly realized that I was used to it and organizing life around the new systems. So I think at large societies will get used to a different version of life.
2. The virus will have burned through much of this earth in some volume. How this affects how it transmits subsequently we will know more of in a year. Once you couple this with our new expectations, new treatments and 2021 lethality of the virus, lots of things will change.

But in the mean time, like I said, let's stay fit enough to hammer out local races and if Mdot stuff happens and we can travel, we're ready to roll in several weeks.

Keeping my powder dry. Really wanted to do a domestic 70.3 next year but not willing to risk the money or the time training now. Will put the time and resources into other events like a local trail ultra and a new bike. Personally what makes me most wary is not just the uncertainty of racing, but all of the other uncertainties - professional and personal - impacted by this thing...

I posted the other day how there 75 Kona spots for 2021 at Cairns IM for 221 AG athletes and thought it rather ironic when I would be surprised Australians can get into and out of Hawaii easily even by then. I wouldn't be taking too much risk to fly internationally for a race. Cases are spiking and people are worried about IM Portugal going ahead in several weeks. My coach runs a triathlon series called Frenchman racing in France and Portugal, holding the first race in France and the second in Portugal a few weeks ago. The third race that includes an IM distance event has been cancelled due to covid cases rising in France. Europe held off the virus since the first initial lockdown but cases are now starting to rise and people are rebelling against further lockdown.

Unless there is a vaccine or things dramatically change, including the mentality of how governments deal with the virus over the winter I wouldn't bank on racing internationally unless you are prepared to lose a lot of money or quarantine going there, back or both.

Personally at this stage I am only planning to race local and hope that my transfer from the 2020 70.3 worlds to NZ in 2022 goes ahead. Australia is already talking about an Australia/NZ travel bubble so odds are more in my favour.

Kona slots I will watch with interest as it is basically international for everyone being an island and how they will manage the virus there. Rolling over 2020 slots and handing out 2021 slots could get very messy at some point?

I am going to start building like I always do. Hoping for the best, but being flexible. Early season big marathons should be the leading indicators of where we are at.

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Next races on the schedule: none at the moment

Whether events will happen depends on if the “powers that be” begin using rational thought (no sign of that yet). I personally am not signing up for any more races (I have 2 x 70.3 deferred already) until then. Up to you I guess.

This is all true, but the original question was whether to sign up. And that is a tricky question, since a lot if IMs for 2021 are full because of deferrals from 2020. So if you want to have a chance to do an IM, you probably will have to sign up early, which is basically now. And the earlier you sign up, the more unclear it is if it will take place. Stupid situation....

This is the most helpful post for me. My husband and I were signed up for IM Wales 2020 and we are currently deferred to 2021. However, I am not planning or counting on doing it. I won't feel safe to fly overseas for a while. I'm 50 and didn't do my first IM until I was 46. I don't want to get this virus and risk long term effects. I have enough challenges being an old lady trying to do IM. I don't need my lungs or heart affected long-term. So I'll wait. And try the strategy above. Thanks for this great advise!

I'm amazed by all the athletes racing big events right now in the midst of a pandemic. I'm watching closely to see what happens. I'm not nervous about other athletes. It's everyone else, especially all the asshats in the US who refuse to wear a mask, social distance and take it seriously.

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Death is easy....peaceful. Life is harder.

From what I understood from a friend who lives in Kona, with all the businesses being shut down in Hawaii and boarded up, Hawaii is going to imminently allow travel there with a Covid19 test 72 hrs in advance of travel. So at least they will test out importing people and Virus to Hawaii to see if they can revive biz. You still will need to get home.

Hawaii had a version of this program earlier in the summer. We were set to travel to HI from CO at the beginning of August. You had to present a negative test from within 72 hours, as you said. What we found was that was logistically impossible to pull off. In CO, there are very few "rapid" tests which meant you were likely wafting 6-7 days for results. Combine that with our flight departure on a Sunday and it seemed impossible to confidently risk. Since then, there seem to have been some improvements. In Evergreen, CO, I've heard of a company called "Covid Consultants" that has set up specifically to help with this for travel. Right now, Alaska has a similar policy as HI did. A friend of mine just used this service to get his greenlight into AK. You pay $170 for a saliva test of some sort and get the results back within 24 hours. I'm not sure how widespread that biz model is, or how widely accepted those results are, but it's a possibility for folks in CO at least.

Tampa Airport started a pilot program for the month of Oct 2020 offering travelers a COVID PCR test ($125 with 48 hour turn for results) and an antigen test ($57 with results in 15 mins). If successful, I believe this will expand rapidly. The travel industry is dying in front of our eyes and there has to be quicker, faster, cheaper testing to get things restarted.

So long as Ironman stay in business, we will see some IM races taking place, while some IM races will undoubtedly be cancelled. It is pretty clear that Corona will still be around throughout next year, what will be different is how different governments approach lifting restrictions. Another factor will be insurance, will insurers cover races next year? would event organisers in countries like the US be willing to race without insurance cover?

This year, at least in Europe, we have seen many smaller events taking place. I have taken part in a couple of ultra endurance triathlons and an ultra trail marathon which have been allowed due to the smaller number of participants. I have also organised an "informal" 70.3 and Olympic distance triathlon, these 2 events were massive successes, and I will certainly organise a single event next year.

There will be opportunities to race next year, keep an open mind, keep training and to some extent wait and see what happens

For anyone who is interested and wants to push themselves a little harder, have a look at Triverest or Helveticman in Switzerland. If you are up for the challenge you will not be disappointed

1. In North America....Yes (Canada will get over their phobia by next year)

2. Yep

3. Maybe not outside NA or your home country???????

Frenchman xxl ( ironman distance ) is amongst my top 3 races ever. And as befitting for one of the 3 best swimmer triathlon has ever seen Ben's swim course is just fab and a labour of love.

In fairness besides Poland, France is the country that got the most triathlons done in Europe this year and I would think those 2 countries and the baltic states are the ones most likely to have races with bigger fields as they did host an m dot race this year already.

I’m all in for next year with three IMs and three 70.3s on the schedule.

Hopefully, science has figured something out by next May.

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Favorite Gear: Dimond | Cadex | Desoto Sport | Hoka One One

Well either you will have your hands full training and racing or telling us how racing won't happen in 2021 :)

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Next races on the schedule: none at the moment

I have a half and a full on the calendar (Blue Ridge and Maryland) and both are short drives which should limit the risk due to travel. Worst case they get pushed back a year and I am already paid for. I expect races to be on though but travel may get dicey so wouldn't sign up for an international race

Only Planning to race once all this is done.

Hopefully we can see some improvements Spring 2021 but I`m not planning to do anything.

But honestly, I think 2021 will be similar to 2020.

Hopefully the Ironman Brand can survive that.

I will be seeing you in Maryland

I’m confident (-ish) that modern science will cut us a break next year.

There was zero chance of that happening this year.

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Favorite Gear: Dimond | Cadex | Desoto Sport | Hoka One One

Not responding to you directly but the entire thread in general......I am surprised it hasn't been mentioned that all current registration for next years races have a no questions asked deferral offer if you register for the race in a specified period of time. For Mont Tremblant for example if you register before December 20th you are eligible for deferral and can defer up until July 8th.

I saw that and jumped on it as I wanted to race Mont Tremblant all along in 2021 but figured I can re-evaluate things in terms of CV-19 (and if I can even cross the border) in the July time frame. I don't recall Ironman ever offering a no questions ask deferral policy like this before.

Yeah, I don’t feel like there is much to lose other than giving IM an interest free loan.

Races are all selling out quickly. Pick a race you might want to do and make a decision 2-3 months out.

I’m doing what Dev suggests earlier in the thread. Going to build a good solid base on about 8-10 hours with some higher intensity work and then with 3 months to go decide if I want to do the IM volume build or focus on shorter distances.

I’m signed up for Chatty 70.3 in May and IMLP in July.

Ben's been my coach since meeting him randomly post Kona in Honolulu in 2014. He was just on holiday and we recognised him in a surf store. My friend knew I was done with my coach and asked 'do you coach?' 'This is my passion' was his reply in the French accent sounded rather cool and I hired him on the spot. I flew to France and did two Kona training blocks the following two years with him in Bordeaux and we would swim across the lake at Hourtin the 3.8km race course. I was supposed to do the XXL as a goal race this year in May. My flights were booked and I was excited to race in front of Ben for only the second time until Covid but will definitely get back there. Fingers crossed this shit ends soon enough but personally I can't see it so I am committing to nothing too far from home having already lost out...


Here's the plug to his race series ;)


https://www.frenchmantriathlon.com/frenchman-hourtin/triathlon-distance-xxl/

exactly...i will now have my $600 sitting in their bank for the past 18 months

Same here. Still training for Texas..........

Look at the bright side, if you had put that 600 in investments, it might now only be worth 400.... :)

Haha....its an "investment" in keeping us motivated to train vs an investment in something like Carnival Cruise lines or United Airlines or Coca Cola stock (it actually baffles me how something so non essential to human life can have a market cap of $212 billion while poisoning the world with excess sugar other than mile 13 of an Ironman....but that's another topic)

Could have put it towards bills. If I acted quicker I would've done a chargeback. I'm no legal expert, but holding onto someone's money for that long should not be legal. You live and learn...local events for me from now on, they at least have morals.

i picked chatty as well for next year, decided on it yesterday afternoon. seems to be the closest race that will work with my schedule as well as set me up for cozumel this time next year.

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80/20 Endurance Ambassador