This is a terrible thread. You are such a Debbie Downer. :)

If Macron has half a brain, he won't do anything. France started seeing cases climb late July. However, deaths have not even blipped the radar. As in, not even a measurable increase yet. So, either their cases are false positives, or France is delivering world-class medical care to the infected.

Just remember, deaths trail cases by 2 to 3 weeks. This, unfortunately, can get real bad again. And Spain is experiencing the same kind of spike it saw In the spring. I do wonder if the race will make it to Paris, but one positive nite is that the roadside crowds have been masked up.

Hey I seeing this as glass half full and the TDF does make it to Paris. We are 6 stages in, and while caaes are up, deaths are flat for a long time ...almost 2 months and the TDF bubble has had no positives yet and Macron wants no lockdown.

So it's looking more likely that we have a chance for this thing to get to Paris at least more of a shot than this time last week just before the start!!!

I hope they finish the race. Should not shut it down due to just a rise in positive tests in France or Spain. What does hospitalization look like? what do "Excess Deaths" look like?


Hypothesis. Despite rise in positive tests, deaths may not spike due to the following factors:

• The most vulnerable, aged with multiple co-morbidities, have already been impacted
• Those with known co-morbidities are taking extra care to social distance
• We've learned not to send the aged and sick back into nursing homes
• Treatments are better. Some evidence that using ventilators was a bad idea and may have led to more deaths
• It's summer, people are outside more, therefore body produces more Vitamin D, which benefits immune system. Saw one study which showed a high correlation between low vitamin D levels and Covid deaths.
• Virus may have mutated to be more contagious, but less deadly

I don't find the "covid death" numbers reliable. Guidelines are very broad, financial incentive to classify as a Covid death too great. Excess total deaths more reliable.

Vive Le Tour

If all they are going to do is group tempo rides up each mountain for the next two weeks then I say just end it now so I can get my sleep patterns back in order. :-)

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Well we could get them to do distanced Zwift TT and cancel the next 2 weeks of group rides and to make ST explode, put Lionel, Alistair and Frodo in that ITT

I say yes. It's too high a profile event to get cancelled now.

Are they testing everyone? If so, how often and what's the turn around time on the results? I haven't heard a peep about testing since the Tour started.

I think they will stop one stage short.

No one wins on the last day. The race is already decided.

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They are only testing on rest days (so next Monday is first test day) - two positives and the team is out (it's not clear if it's two riders or two in the team 'bubble') - any positive cases will have to be verified via secondary testing.

I don't know how it is in France, but at least one study in the States suggests excess deaths are beyond what's been reported as COVID deaths. The figures at the time showed 200K excess deaths, when only 140K COVID deaths had been reported.

That being said, you are correct that excess deaths would be the figure to look at.

Excess deaths could also be heart attacks and other deaths that were caused because people were too scared to go to the hospital for normal procedures, but back to the the topic at hand, someone said testing only on the rest day. Let's say 2% or 5% of 15% or 25% of the peloton are affected by now hypothetically it would be interesting to understand how this has impacted the race.

I did not realize that testing was only on rest day and thought it was every day for the rider+team bubble

Here is my favorite way to look at data now that we are in this "second wave" where hospitalizations and deaths do not seem to track to cases like they did in the beginning. The nut is that while France's new daily cases are through the roof, deaths have not changed. At all.

If the UCI is good at anything, it's covering up positive test results...

Ah. Could be a small field on the line at stage10.

I hope it makes it. I hope that when they do the tests on the rest day nobody is positive. I'm happy to be able to watch the race.

Bernal is probably hoping he will test positive on the rest day so he doesn't have to keep pretending he has the form to win the race.

He's probably licking doorknobs as we speak

indianacyclist wrote:

If the UCI is good at anything, it's covering up positive test results...

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@floathammerholdon | @partners_in_tri

With that we should close this thread LOL!!!

So we have two stage in the Pyranees this weekend and then on Monday 600 riders + staff get tested. If X% test positive talk is ASO could shut it down....in that case, this weekend they go full gas in case it ends on Monday nite!!!

Europe has had no/very mininal excess deaths since sometime in June. The cases really don't mean anything when this is the case, and you're not normalizing positive tests on charts like this for testing rates.

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I’m pretty sure I read somewhere that they’re only tested every 10 ten days, which won’t make much sense, But if that’s true, they won’t really have much time to analyse the results remove a team, unless they catch two at the same time on the first testing day.

On Flobikes.com, they were talking about testing all 600 riders+staff on the rest day (Monday).

More likely scenario given UCI coverups is positive riders suddenly become "injured" on Tuesday and voluntarily DNS (honestly this would be my preference so as not to create mass hysteria). My personal 2 cents is it is doubtful riders are giving it to each other, because all they do is race, recover, eat, sleep, get up, eat, warmup, repeat. The way the virus gets into the bubble is what the staff doe all around France while the riders are with each other. The staff have more opportunities to bring it into the bubble. Its not like the riders do much in local towns after the stage of the day, so they are roughly on a "rider curfew" even if they are not. We could debate it they are giving it to each other in the air outside in the race. No one will ever know if those riders who become positive got positive that way or from staff. During the UAE Tour, the staff from Italy brought it in from my understanding, but that team did not give it to other riders through the air during the race.

My main concern would be wether the hotels are cleares properly

Kind of unlikely that the hotels in rural France are disinfected like the JW Marriott in NYC, but its probably a non issue. I bet the hotels are required to be empty for 24 hrs before the teams move in, which would kill off any virus anyway (time related decay on surfaces).

I read somewhere that each team has a crew going ahead to the hotels to do their own cleaning prior to the teams’ arrival. They also bring their own linens and kitchen stuff. And the people on the cleaning crew never come into contact with any of the riders or staff in the race.

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clm
Nashville, TN
https://twitter.com/ironclm | http://ironclm.typepad.com

1. If i was the sport or health minister of France watching this stage, I would stop this race dead flat. The crowds on the last climb were an extreme spreader event.

2. If I was a rider going through those crowds of lots of unmasked, screaming in your face fans, I would be very upset with race organizers not doing enough to keep riders healthy.

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808 > NYC > PDX > YVR
2024 Races: Taupo

Agree 💯. Today was the beginning of the end for the TdF. Pretty aggravating that a) the directors allowed the fans to crowd the racers like that and b) the fans would actually do it, with a good portion of them not wearing masks.

I’m pretty pissy because this years race was shaking out to be the best in years..... now I’m 100% convinced it’s almost over.

That last climb today...the crowds were shoulder-to-shoulder and completely crowding into the road, yelling at riders without masks. From a virus standpoint, it was a complete mess. It seems pointless that they go to all the effort before the race to not catch the virus and then get thrown into that petri-dish of a crowd during the climb.

Utter failure on the part of race organizers putting the riders at such risk.

Keep in mind that everyone who got to the top of Peyresourde from what I understand got there by bike or hiked up. No cars were allowed on the mountain. the race organizers can't control hikers going up a mountain, but they could control bikes. It was definitely possible to limit road access.

As for the scenario, my thoughts (and just my opinion) that riders going at 15-25kph through a dense group of screaming fans may not have been exposed to enough density of fan breathing given their own speed, outside ambiant air movement and density of potential virus to infect them. You can do the math and see the riders would have gone through the dense fan section for <3 min by rewinding the coverage. 3 min, moving that fast in an outdoor environment, there may be less density of droplets than your local grocery or retail store or restaurant (due to air circulation quality), with stale air and people in there for a long time. But its just my opinion. Someone will have to do proper math and figure out the density of droplets per cubic meter of air volume the riders were going through per second during their 3 min exposure.

I think the probability of a rider getting exposed to the virus and getting sick is higher during his daily post race massage from his own team staff who is exposed daily to far more than the rider. Those are my thoughts. But the fans were likely a hazard to themselves given they are around the same group of people for a long long time, but it would be less dense than traditional pro sports stadium.

In any case, if riders test positive on Monday my guess is it probably was from before Peyresourde, not during the climb that they caught this.

If tomorrow is the last stage of the TdF if they cancel on the rest day, its been pretty awesome, but I suspect they kick out a few riders at most and keep rolling and watching until the next rest day.

There's been no documented "extreme spread" event outdoors.

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"The person on top of the mountain didn't fall there." - unkown

also rule 5

It is more likely than a peleton of boats in Texas.............

That’s good to hear. Seeing those crowds just caught me by surprise yesterday.

So far today crowds on Col de Soudet are much better. But cold and light rain helps too.

It really boils down to if any of those maskless fans shouting at the riders in very close quarters was shedding virus. Could be an asymptomatic person or one with mild symptoms that didn't think they had covid. That might impact only one or a small number of riders. The crowd seemed better on stage 9 today, and they didn't appear to close in so much on the riders during the final ascent.

In my non medical opinion, just looking at how the virus spreads, etc, I would think it would take a lot more than a few virus-shedding fans with only a few seconds exposure outside for these relatively healthy athletes to catch the virus. If I recall correctly, the data most recently show that (on average) it would take more than 15 mins with a positive person indoors with no mask, otherwise the viral load is just too small to contract.

That could definitely change as the Tour goes on and wears on riders immune systems. If ASO really gave a fuck about the riders, they’d realize that the best defense against the virus (other than not being exposed to it of course), is a healthy immune system. They could have adjusted the tour to be shorter with more rest days. And what an exciting tour it would be if it were 15 100-120kn stages!!

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"The person on top of the mountain didn't fall there." - unkown

also rule 5

Droplets vs. aerosol. I wouldn't discount the risk. With luck, none of those fans was covid positive.

I think the best response would be to send a motorcycle team, with electric cattle prods, ahead of the race and let them zap anyone who isn’t wearing a mask. Nothing like 40,000 volts to remind people that they should be wearing a mask when not socially distanced. I sure don’t feel sorry for any moron who needs a reminder of appropriate behavior. These people keep ruining everything for the rest of the responsible population.

I generally agree with what you are saying

Let's look at it one more way. If a group of young people are exercising outdoors in close quarters but otherwise when indoors or not moving and not physically spaced they are behaving responsibly then what do the cases look like. So far this has been going since the Dauphine 3 weeks ago so let's see after the peloton are tested how many riders got the virus. I am less interested how many staff got it as they could get it from external but how many riders got it will be interesting relative to how many staff.

Texas at one point had a Navy, so not that surprising!

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Washed up footy player turned Triathlete.

I like it! The Nashville mayor needs to try that here on Broadway with all the tourists who don’t wear masks.

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clm
Nashville, TN
https://twitter.com/ironclm | http://ironclm.typepad.com

Looks like France is becoming a SSHOW. I would say no based on the crowds it could draw. Official finish will not be in Paris.

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http://www.TriScottsdale.org

If they did, I'd certainly hope they'd televise it.

I couldn't imagine a better evening's viewing. Sitting back with a glass of red and some cheeses enjoying the Tour, after watching a curtain raiser of motorcycle cops with cattle prods zapping the groins of recalcitrant morons.

How good would that be? Whether they made it to Paris or not, I would still call it the best Tour in living memory.

If any riders test positive, I hope it’s roglic, Bernal and pogacar, they look the strongest and it would be anyone’s race.

In fairness, the oldest, most co-morbid (the low hanging fruit) is already dead. We also know who is by far the most likely to die (people over 60 and especially people over 80 and especially especially anyone in these groups with serious co-morbidity) and can take extra precautions to prevent them from getting infected (isolate these people). As far as the everyone else, the death rate looks to be on the order of somewhere between 0.1 and 1.0%, depending on what you believe the true infection rate is. So for example, using these bounds, with 5000 new cases per day, this gets you to between 5 and 50 deaths per day (assuming 5000 new cases a day holds and the most vulnerable are strongly isolated), and 20 deaths per day is right in the middle of these bounds.

So I as long as new cases holds steady at 5000 cases per day (and we keep the most vulnerable from getting infected), the death rate should hold and therefore the Tour should make it to Paris. My logic being that if they have accepted about 20 deaths per day in France, if deaths stay at about that number the status quo holds.

A bucket of numbers in what you've written, apparently laced with much speculation and even more wishful thinking.

Mid July, France was recording 500 new cases/day. There has been a continual rise in the 7-day average ever since. End of July, that had increased to 1000. By end of August, 5000. A week later, the 7-day average is 6700.

What are the indicators that it will plateau at 5000? What evidence is there that a significant increase in deaths won't follow the rise in new cases?

It will be very interesting to see the test results after today.

At least we know the Tour would never cover up or explain away testing results to preserve the race.

My guess is the tour makes it to completion. Might be a few positive tests along the way, and I could even see a team or two being knocked out. But I doubt they buckle to the pressure to cancel the event mid-way. All speculation -- we'll find out one way or the other soon enough.

The interesting thing is the existence of the crazy fans all cramming the route, are, in effect, a message to the govt to actually keep the race rolling, in that people are saying, "hey we want normal, and we're less worried about dying than in April, so let us go enjoy". In the process they might be doing stupid things, but if the population at large felt the risk of dying and hospitalization was super high, they would not all bike and hike up 10km mountains en mass as they have been doing. That's not logic for not cancelling, but there is a psychology aspect that may come into play.

This is not just any event in France. Tour de France is part of the national identity in many ways (I think you can only really get it if you have spent extended time in France during this event). But if it looks like hospitals are getting loaded up, then the pressure will be on. If the rider bubble has managed to stay largely clear in spite of the fans, then there will be pressure to keep the race rolling and manage the fans. Let's see what results come out after today's rider bubble testing of all 600.

Fingers crossed.

I never said there was a guarantee that new cases will plateau at 5000, in fact clearly stated that was an assumption. What we do know is it is basically impossible to get to (or at least maintain) zero new cases (NZ made that pretty clear). So, for any given level of controls there will be some kind of "steady-state" level of infections, which obviously we would like as low as possible, but that clashes with the reality of what level of controls will large populations religiously follow for an indefinite period of time? This is backstopped by expected political action (harder controls) if cases rise to some level (depends on the country). My personal assumption is that if deaths stay under about 75 people per day (does not get too close to 100) for large European countries (France, Spain, Italy), we will not see a wide scale lockdown, but would probably see some additional restrictions. Based on the bounds I gave you, we would have to see reported cases get into the range of 10-12K per day for a somewhat extended period to get deaths to that level and I don't see it, or at least not before the TdF is over. I think people in the EU are responsible enough that the recent increases is going to cause some voluntary actions (people behave more strictly with their isolating), because I truly believe the most important part of keeping cases down is voluntary compliance (by making the personal choice to minimize contact with others, regardless of masks or distances, just staying home is the best defense).

As far as why we won't see. a significant increase in deaths (even with new cases in the range of 5-10K per day), I very clearly explained that using what is pretty well established consensus evidence at this point (as well as stating my assumptions), but there were a lot of numbers which may be hard for some people to understand. There is no "average" death rate for COVID, the death rate is highly specific to demographics groups (primarily with age), with at least 1-2 orders of magnitude in difference of death rate between the groups. If we can keep infections in those over 60 very low, death rates will never get close to what we say before. And I am not saying the deaths don't matter or this isn't a serious disease, I am just saying there is a lot of misunderstanding about the death rates among the general public, because the overall average means nothing and once you get beyond averages many people are incapable (or unwilling) to take the time to understand the numbers (based on your reply, you may fall into this category).

My point being, relax, I think it is very likely the TdF makes it to Paris (I don't think we are going to see an earth shattering change in cases in the next 2 weeks; cases may very well continue to rise, but slowly enough to prevent as severe an action as stopping the Tour). Likewise, there is a certain "inertia" to an event in progress, it is lot harder to cancel the tour with four days to do than it is to not start it. I'll admit Pinot being out of contention hurts, because I do truly believe if a Frenchman was in contention (but not actually in yellow) it would strengthen the inertia for the event to continue (not saying this is a deciding policy factor, but like any difficult choice there are many considerations). Likewise, the Tour is visible on a World scale, cancelling it would basically be the French government admitting they made a mistake in allowing it in the first place. I also am not sure what the riders think, one assumption in my thinking is that only the government would cancel the race, I think they can keep the rider bubble intact and if they do, the riders would not call for a cancelation, nor would ASOs or the UCI (too much money at stake). I'd be more concerned about the Giro and Vuelta. As we are observing there are clearly upticks in cases in Europe, we will have to see.

How much are you willing to bet the Tour gets to Paris? I'll go 100 Euros on my forecast, how much is yours worth;)

In fairness I seriously doubt that. ~31K people have died in France (worldometer). France has a population of ~67M. About 20% of the population is over 65. (source).

20% of 67M is ~13.4M. 31K is ~0.04% of 13.4M.

So, no, all the old people in France haven't died yet.

Sure there is. Divide the total number of deaths in any given cohort by the size of the cohort. That's the average death rate for that cohort.

Nicely stated.

I agree to a certain extend, let me explain..
In Denmark 600-ish people (maybe 700, not completely sure) have died from covid-19 (small population), But we had a mild flu season during Fall/winter, so 2000 people less died from the flu, compared to the year before. Then came lockdown and general social distancing along with awareness of disinfecting. Net result is a Record low number of deaths in Numbers. You could argue that all the weakest old people have died from covid-19, But AI Think in general the death toll is much lower than it “should” have been because of restrictions and awareness (very much depending on local restrictions/recommendations). Not only from covid-19, But Also from common cold a flu (basically any virus that May potentially be lethal, given the right corcumstances). If this years flu is more harsh than last years, we May say a higher fatality on that account. Not only because of more survivors from last year, But Also because the flu won’t spread as fast, meaning less immune people, which May extend the duration. Instead of healthy people catching it in november, maybe it’s middle of december. And spending time with the family during Christmas May kill off some of the old and weak. Here covid-19 is hitting Numbers compared to april, But then again, 10-12 times as many people are tested Daily. And stories of people having it more than once are emerging (shame on them for their inconsiderate behaviour Btw). Which could mean that it has mutated a bit, being more contageous, But less deadly. However, the tendency here is that Young adults now get the positive tests, in the spring it was mainly elderly

When do we have to match your 100 Euros on the TdF making it to Paris. Do we need to do it by noon PDT or do we have till 10 am tomorrow France time. If you give me till 10 am France time tomorrow, I'll put down 1000 Euros with my position! At noon PDT today, I am going with the same 100 Euros that the TdF makes it to Paris. By tomorrow morning I could put down 1000 for or against depending on results from today's testing LOL!!!!

I'm not willing to bet. I don't know.

My point is I believe your interpretations of stats and predictions to pump up your opinion are dodgy.

Though if it is stopped, it isn't number of deaths In France that's going to be the reason. It most likely to be about excess positive cases among the cyclists and team staff knocking out the teams. And the rapidly escalating numbers of positive cases in France reflects a spread of covid that makes that increasingly likely.

I think more pertinent hypothetical may be, "How many teams can be ruled out of the Tour before it is no longer a viable race?"

Here is an interesting "hypothetical" scenario. What if zero riders tested positive and all positive tests were with staff, with some teams in excess of 2 positives. Do we think the teams will get the boot or be asked to replace staff and isolate the infected (and how do you isolated anyone infected while that person is on business travel.....does that employee end up stuck in a hotel by themselves for 14 days solo)?

Ready to roll:

https://www.lequipe.fr/...-au-covid-19/1169383

no rider positive

I wonder how dangerous the virus would be to riders in the third week. I've read all kinds of crazy stories about what riding the tour does to your body, I can't imagine throwing a virus into the mix would be a good thing.

I've started thinking about that as well. Covid-19 to a day 1-3 TDF rider is probably no-factor. On day 20? Probably a different story. Definitely a real-life case study.

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"The person on top of the mountain didn't fall there." - unkown

also rule 5

The irony is Christian Prudhomme tested positive and now has to sit on the sidelines. Hopefully he will be fine, but the irony is striking.

Ha - I was thinking the same thing.

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clm
Nashville, TN
https://twitter.com/ironclm | http://ironclm.typepad.com

Why is he only isolating for 8 days?

The good news is no rider positives but the staff positives is troubling since its just a matter of time that it enters the riders themselves. Prudhomme getting it will not help the overall picture either though should enough riders get it.

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Nothing to see here...Carry on.. :-)
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I think this is what we all said early in the thread....riders will magically drop out and only staff will test positive....everyone will ride on.

If 1999 holds in 2020, the winner will get the Yellow in jersey with an asymptomatic scenario positive Corona test covered up.

So INEOS just needs one more positive test and they are out. And because they had one positive test already, it's been present in their bubble, which means a higher likelihood of somebody else also contracting it. If they're smart they would isolate/send away anybody who had contact with the person who tested positive.

Not saying it’s a cover up, But Pinots perfomance suddenly dropped for one stage and he had lower back pain. When I get the flu, I usually have lower back pain

And when I lift weight improperly, I get lower back pain. If it were a rider that was actually doing well, I might be concerned. But this is Pinot. Same shit, different year. Gets his ass dropped and leaves the race like half the years.

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"The person on top of the mountain didn't fall there." - unkown

also rule 5

It presents an interesting scenario or at least it makes a huge difference that Bernal is in second and not in first. Understood what the stated rules are, but pulling the whole team (including Bernal) out of the race when the riders are not positive (but parts of their bubble are) would certainly be controversial. If he was in first the optics would be really difficult, if he remains in second it makes the optics of pulling him from the race a bit better (still difficult in second, put pulling out the race leader without them being positive would seem almost as bad as cancelling the whole race).

But to your point, internally they need to take very serious action because by the rules they are one strike away from being sent home.

Just pointing out that the false positive rate is very much non-zero. So high that for riders who test positive, there's a protocol for an "B sample" test so they're not immediately rejected. But I'm not sure what the protocol is for staff. I'd think they're all getting re-tested at maybe a slower pace than the riders are and can maybe be taken off the list if they definitively find one to be a false positive.

What optics? I think people understand the situation the world is in. Riders too, as they mostly say, "We'll be happy to race all the way to Paris, but understand if that doesn't happen"

The rule that the its 2 strikes inclusive of staff is stupid.

It should just be 2 rider positives and you are out.

Why. Because a team staff member from Team A has no excuse to interact with Team B. Thus a staff member can only spread it inside Team A.

A rider from Team A can, in theory spread it to Team B by breathing at 100% FTP on a climb and the following riders pick it up (this is a theory, we have not proof yet), but riders from Team A and Team B do interact with each other without masks, not physically distanced.

So as soon as riders from Team A are positive they can, in theory spread it to team B. Staff from Team A could be sick as dogs, or asymptomatic and not spread it to riders in Team A or they could spread it to riders in Team A. Once they spread it to their own team it could crossover to other teams. But in theory, staff from Team A don't spread it to Team B. So as soon as staff are positive, isolate them and replace them with new staff and keep rolling with the event. I don't know if in Bundesliga, or MLB, or MLS if positive staff from Team A affects Team A getting benched.

yes, all the teams with a positive will be very nervous though they have the advantage over us speculators in that they know the identity and how much contact they have had through the team. if say it was Bernal's masseuse then very nervous!

France isn't immune to making rules just to make rules.

Look at the French national soccer team. Players are testing positive and they are still practicing and playing. Mbappe tested positive and the team still plans to play their next match in a week. Presumbly they are still training, sans Mbappe.

Exactly why they should suspend international matches for now. A Belgian international player tested positive after their match against Denmark. One thing is national leagues where things a relatively under control within the same country, But travelling around, is just helping disease to spread

3 days into increasing deaths in France. Is this an unfortunate start of the lag time from cases? Spain is nearing triple digit deaths after their second wave of positives.

The tour might make it to Paris, But I’ll seriously doubt the giro and Vuelta make it all the way through. Actually, my Bet is that Vuelta Will be cancelled

And possibly more interesting than we could of guessed

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cycling/54072769

With only occasional tests and daily temperature checks, I'm curious how comprehensive the questions are on the daily symptom questionnaire.

Everyone in the bubble tested negative at the start (needed to enter the bubble....two Lotto staff were sent home when they tested positive before the start). 650 people were tested, with four positives.....so 0.62% caught the virus despite the bubble after just over a week. That's not encouraging, especially given the exponential nature of community spread.

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The encouraging part is after the Dauphine, various national Championships, Milano San remo etc etc etc, the riders have not picked this up off each other or the fans roadside. The support staff have picked it up off their interactions with the public. Now the riders may be incubating this after being exposed to their staff (example Fernando Gaviria at UAE Tour), but after a month of racing they don't appear to be giving it to each other or getting it off screaming fans (YET).

One of the articles I was reading yesterday said that it obese individuals more due to there being more receptors for the virus on fat cells compared to nonfat cells. It may be one of the reasons, combined with the outdoor part of the sport, being why cycling hasn’t had Much of a problem. It also doesn’t bode well for American Football starting up.

It would be interesting to see that average BMI of overall cases, cases not hospitalized, cases hospitalized, and cases resulting in death. Its not like athletes cannot get this (Bolt, Gavaria, Dojokovic etc). BMI of cyclists clearly on the way low end, just above marathoners!

On a plus note, we have stage 11 on the road. 40km closer to Paris already today!!!

Actually, this is not the case. Refer back to my chart above. https://forum.slowtwitch.com/...ost=7315880#p7315880 Daily deaths are flat. France has yet to see an increase in deaths since their cases began increasing in July.

Here is a table from the chart that shows the daily new deaths and rolling 7-day average. It is key to look at the 7-day average, because France, like most countries, reports on a weekly cycle. This shows that deaths has been flat for the past three weeks... and it goes back way further than that. (9/4 had a reporting anomaly that I corrected. They reversed the deaths reported on the 9/5.)

I'd ask to see a breakdown of surviving patients regardless of initial hospitalization who have FULLY recovered from the virus with zero lingering issues / organ damage vs those who have damage or ongoing symptoms for months and months afterwards. There are plenty of low BMI athletic types who have been through the virus who are struggling in its aftermath. https://www.bbc.com/news/health-54031587

Just saw a rider drop out during the relative flat stage 11 not looking well. I wonder if riders who drop out like that are re-tested in the days following.

I was thinking the same thing this morning when I walked in and heard the NBC announcers talking about a rider wearing the Gabba jersey because he wasn't feeling well. Not long after Muhlberger dropped out. Fingers crossed it was just a bad day.

This is the part that worries me. The risk of me or my family (parents excluded) Dying is remarkably low. But getting something where I may not be able to be active again or my kids getting something that affects them for the rest of their life they’re 2 and 4, would be horrible. We just don’t know those details yet, and it seems like that has been 100 percent overshadowed by the number of deaths.

You don't understand the optics of pulling out the race leader (or perhaps the race leader who is also the defending champion) when he hasn't tested positive, as say compared to the 100th placed rider or even the 2nd place rider (or anyone who is also not the defending champion)? Sure people understand COVID, but I would also say it would be pretty unprecedented to pull the leader out of a race because of a test result for someone else, and no matter what the rules are this would create some serious criticism and depending on who it was and how they were placed would put a huge asterisk against the final result of the race.

There's a huge difference between pulling a rider who tested positive versus pulling a rider who did not test positive (but one of his support staff tested positive). However, according to the rules they set up, these are administratively the same. If you don't call that optics, what do you call it? And I'm not saying the rules are wrong or imprudent, just saying they set up a potentially very delicate, controversial and perhaps unfair situation for some rider.

I'm pretty sure the reaction of the riders would be a lot different for pulling out a rider with a positive test (absolutely the right thing to do, no rider would question this) versus pulling out a rider who did not test positive, but where a support staffer tested positive (in accordance with the rules they set, certainly a reasonable precaution, but at some level unfair because you are punishing the rider for the actions of another, not their own).

My hope is the couple of positive tests scared everyone straight and they make it through incident free. I'm only speculating, but I would assume that even within the bubbles the riders and staff are taking precautions, masks and distancing to the extent possible because the stakes are so high, especially for the teams with top placed GC riders.

The backpedalling already started: https://www.cyclingnews.com/...cond-rest-day-tests/


In an apparent overnight change in position, ASO and the UCI, in consultation with the French government, have decided to reset any counter before the next round of planned COVID-19 testing, which will take place on and around the second rest day in the Alps.
“We are resetting the counters for the next round of tests. However, if before those tests one of the four teams has another positive then they will be out,” a source told Reuters.


The key part of the above is, "In consultation with the French Government"....
Now what scientifically changed between the start of the Tour de France and now for the French govt to have one set of rules starting in Nice and be supportive of changing those rules yesterday. Nothing changed in terms of how Covid19 is transmitted and it makes zero sense to wipe the slate clean starting the next rest day. Cases are cases. Now if they said, "we will treat rider cases different from staff cases". If 2 riders test positive the entire team is out in addition to the riders who test positive. If support crew test positive, they get isolated and are out of the Tour, but clear riders can keep riding. That would make sense from a science perspective in terms of virus spread.
This latest reset of the counter makes zero sense (even though I am glad they are resetting).

As I said in an earlier comment, once they allowed this to go, any major disruption or cancellation of the race amounts to the French government admitting they made a mistake to let the race happen. This reset lessens the chance of the disruption, so protects the French government from looking stupid. Don't underestimate how much governments and executives are driven by vanity and the perception of success (even if they actually failed, the POTUS being the best example). Based on reading the comments on this thread I get the perception some people think if say 5 riders (or even one) get COVID over the three week tour it would constitute some major public health crisis. We need to stop these unrealistic scenarios and exaggeration of consequences. One or five, otherwise healthy, young athletes getting COVID is not a tragedy, undesirable yes. The chances of them dying would be very low, yes we see examples of organ damage, but even that is not common. How many broken femurs and hips, or people in comas do we from pro bike racing. Is the average rider at more risk from COVID or a crash like happened at the Tour of Poland? So balance COVID risk against the existing risk and both of those between all the economic activity and enjoyment for the fans watching something normal amidst all this chaos. Nothing ventured nothing gained.

What I will agree was probably a poor decision is announcing it. If everyone thought they were one step away, they would probably be more careful. Giving them a known reprieve might let them take down their guard.

The other part is, these are highly paid professionals engaged in what is already a somewhat dangerous sport. They are taking a lot of precautions, but you can never get the risk to zero. No matter what they do, someone will criticize them. But it's like everyone ignores the reality, we may never have a cure or vaccine for COVID or not for many years. People need to start thinking about what life is going to look like in a world without a cure, because although we can live in a fearful bubble world for 6 months (which is arguably prudent as there may be a quick fix or at least to get a handle on how deadly this is and what are the most effective precautions) we cannot do this forever. People will go crazy, wish they were dead because life is so boring.

Paid professionals, taking relatively well understood risks, with a lot of precautions in place is reasonable, even if the result is a few riders get COVID (because that is one of the known possible risks and nobody forced any of the riders to do anything). So as long as I don't hear the riders complaining about their own safety, I don't see any reason to question any of the decisions of the race organization or the French government.

Very well thought out and reasoned post. And yes, I have a vested interest as a fan for this thing to get to Paris, for a World Championships to happen for a Giro to happen. There is an overflow impact on the psychology for the entire business world from pro sports happening and existing in the context of Covid19 that allows for other businesses to get on with things in a risk mitigated manner (versus none at all).

We only need to look at the day when the NBA closed down and how that sent a cascading set of events (rightfully so) towards prudence on all fronts in face of the virus and the psychological impact it had. Now with things better known some things can happen with caution and measures and you actually need for these things to be tried in a measured way to overcome some barriers that societies have placed on themselves. 200 or so super fit young people travelling around France pushing their limits with prudence, and caution seems like a decent test.

As it stands pro bike racing has been going on for 5+ weeks and very few Covid19 cases amongst riders themselves, from what I know, zero hospitalizations and zero deaths (all of which you'd expect from this age group anyway if they are behaving themselves).

Based on those carts, and other data, I see no evidence that would require a cancellation of the tour. In addition to the fact hospitalizations and deaths are not tracking, there is a possible issue with the "positive test" number. There is increasing evidence of a problem with the PCR test. With the test you can set the number of cycles, the "cycle threshold" or "Ct".


From a recent New York Times article: "Tests with thresholds so high may detect not just live virus but also genetic fragments, leftovers from infection that pose no particular risk — akin to finding a hair in a room long after a person has left, Dr. Mina said"


The higher the Ct is set , the more likely it is to detect a lower viral load. So if a person has recovered and has a minute amount of viral debris (incl dead debris) still in his body:
- by setting the Ct on 30, the viral debris won't be detected => giving a (-) test result
- by setting the Ct on 40, the viral debris will be detected => giving a False (+) test result 3/n.


The WHO's guidelines: Ct=47. For now, I will ignore the issue as to whether the test might actually detect other virus, and the issue of quality and control as testing was scaled up rapidly.


Where are the scientific studies by the WHO and other governmental agencies used to set the Ct at 47 or above 35? The government and public health authorities need to explain this. Come on Dr. Fauci, instead of giving us your opinion, share the actual science and data with us. Is this incompetence, or a deliberate decision to make COVID 19 worse than it actually is? I hope it's the former, I fear it's the latter.


As Richard Feynman said, “science is the belief in the ignorance of experts.” I am tired of expert opinion. Show us the god damn science. If you don’t your policies should be ignored.


BTW, it should be noted that France implemented an indoor Mask mandate in mid July. What good did that do? Alleged cases spiked after that. Again, as Feynman says, if the results of the experiment disagree with your hypothesis, it’s WRONG. It’s that simple. This would suggest masks don’t work.


We have a situation where bad science, or no science, has become “religion”.

Lastly, I know four people, who in the last couple months had really bad sore throats, high temperatures and other symptoms. All of them tested NEGATIVE for Covid. What did they have? Did some of the alleged Covid deaths also have this? Did they test for it, or just Covid. Total shit show.


The reported Covid death numbers are also WORTHLESS. Go to CDC and look at Total Deaths. That is only somewhat decent number. There has been an increase, most of it likely due to Covid, but possibly other factors as well.


Time to get back to racing.

The crowd in today's stage appeared to really have taken the mask wearing to heart. I saw very few maskless fans lining the route compared to a couple stages from last week. The message must have gone out, and it was being heeded. Really encouraging to see that.

It was a lot better. I also noted the simple post & rope fencing to help contain the crowds on the climbs.

But it wasn't the Grand Colombier.

Rest day number 2. Everyone gets tested, counter reset to zero.

What are the odds on the Tour getting to Paris. I would say 99/100 it gets there.

Worldometer says that 7 day moving average for cases has gone up from 5000 per day to around 8000 per day and 7 day moving average for death from 10 to 30 or so, the latter nearly doubling in the last few days.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/france/


Worst case a few teams get tossed. With the number of abandons already, its not the end of the world, but if it blows apart the GC (ex: UAE or Jumbo being tossed) that's going to suck.

Will be surprised if there are no positive test results in the peloton. Dream scenario will be the same results as last week. Although, I did read that teams have been conducting their own tests so they are not caught off guard. Hopefully, all remaining riders get to Paris.

Agree on the 99/100 odds. Hidden in France's death rolling average is a mega-spike to 80 deaths reported on 9/11. In the days preceding, their numbers were consistent with prior weeks.

That took the 7-day average from 18 to 30 immediately. It was Friday, and France generally reports light on Saturdays and Sundays, so we will not know for a few days if the 80 spike was an outlier or the new trend for them. But, by that time, the racers will be closing on the finish line.

France seems like it should be due for an increase in daily deaths, given the rise in cases since July. So, it is actually a big shocking that it hasn't occurred yet.

Just spoke to a friend that is in the bubble. Their belief is if they make it through today, they make it to Paris.

That's pretty much a given because they only test on rest days. So that only leaves self-reported illness over the last week.

If I am on a team, I am testing my riders daily and if anyone has it, they suddenly have an injury and quit the tdf and go home or staff have to go home for an "emergency". So by the time testing is done today, its all good to go.

If Jumbo or UAE are on the verge of testing out, ASO will likely re-test anyone with a positive enough times to turn up a negative result to keep them in the race. They don't want an asterisk'ed Tour winner.

Apparently they are testing more than that and not just teams testing internally

I suspect that any rider that tested positive twice would want to pull out of the race even if being pressured to stay in. I'd also hope that any team doctor would squash that move. Even with mild symptoms, there's a high probability they'd not be able to finish within the limits, especially for more than a single stage. Fatigue is prevalent with covid.

If teams are self testing are they required to report positive results?

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Let food be thy medicine...

On a plus note since Christian Prudhomme tested asymptomatic positive and he was in a car with the French prime minister, magically in France the period for quarantine for asymptomatic positive shrunk to 7 days given that most of the transmission happens in the first 5 or so days and 14 days is overly conservative resulting in people just not following the quarantine....there is some common sense to this when enacted in law since laws have to take into account how people comply (or not...whichsadly has nothing to do with science).

But French govt is roughly saying that they are trying to figure out how society can move ahead in the context of this thing, not totally avoid it. This bodes well for completion of the TdF and who knows if it is good or not for public health. I guess we will find out in 2 weeks, 4 weeks and 6 weeks if French hospitals are overwhelmed and there is a new wave of deaths in France due to the TdF happening.

785 COVID tests yesterday at the Tour de France. Zero (0) positives. On to Paris.

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clm
Nashville, TN
https://twitter.com/ironclm | http://ironclm.typepad.com

Not really, it goes the other way around...most people act based on laws, How Well they’re enforced and Possible punishment.

In any case zero positive during testing yesterday, so TdF heading to Paris (YAY):

https://www.cyclingnews.com/news/no-covid-19-positive-tests-emerge-during-tour-de-france-second-rest-day/


and this bodes well for Worlds and Giro in Italy as their numbers are low compared to France

Chris Cuomo disagrees with you.

Cathy, I literally cried when I saw this year's version of this picture happen as the Tour de France rolled into Paris




In a year which for almost all of us has sucked pretty badly, for one fine moment, it felt "almost normal". I've followed every pothole in this race since 1984....it did not dissappoint....now back to reality of life, business, family navigating through the Covid19 worlds of 2020.

On a plus note, we have the UCI World's and Giro on deck followed by Vuelta and the rest of the monuments. With the rider rider bubble making it thorugh 2 months I am optimistic we will get the rest of the cycling season

I've said to others that I didn't think the Tour would make it to Paris. I'm glad to be wrong - but I don't think we currently know how many spectators got infected, and that's an issue.

I'm still thinking that given conditions in Spain and Italy, it's risky to let the Vuelta and the men's Giro go ahead. If both those countries are stricter about crowds than France was, then it could be acceptable. The thing is, I'm not sure I see that happening.

I don't think we will ever know how many people in crowds got infected because of the Tour de France. What we do know is that in Italy during Strade Bianche and Milano San Remo, there was literally no one on the sides of the roads where otherwise it would be 5 spectators deep. So minimally Italy already had better crowd control in some of its biggest races and we roughly saw the same subsequently during Tirenno Adriatico (well at least on the flobikes.com coverage). I think Italians having really gone through the disaster in March and April particularly around Bergamo, are much more cautious publicly on how they revert back to old normal but that may just be an illusion too. Let's see. Before the Giro, the Italians are putting on the UCI worlds at the Imola Formula 1"Enzo and Dino Ferrari" track complex, so we'll see. Thankfully in Italy daily deaths since early July have been single digits to teens.

I sure hope you're right. I'm trying to remember where I heard that Italy and Spain were experiencing a resurgence. It's actually that Spain is really bad, and Italy seems to not be so bad right now in terms of incident cases. Hopefully it stays that way during the Giro.

I maintain that looking at things right now, I'm worried for the Vuelta. I hope I'm wrong.