This is great. Thank you so much for doing this. Donation will be coming in later on today.

this is awesome, thanks! is it easy to run an updated version or super labor intensive? thanks in advance, I know quite a few people who have registered the past month. Thanks!

Really cool! Thanks for putting this together.

% to next slot is if there is a roll down?

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2024: Bevoman, Galveston, Alcatraz, Marble Falls, Santa Cruz

Was wondering if it would be possible to update IMFL with the latest pre registered list? Thanks

Very cool. That is amazing. I signed up for IMWI late, is it a huge pain in the ass to update with the new bib list? Definitely will send a donation your way.

Dan

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"It's nice to be great, but far greater to be nice"

Ironman Florida has been updated with the August 1 start list.

I can do an update, but the latest start list posted is still from July 5, so there isn't any new data to process.

I am sure there is a massive amount of time put into these! That said, any specific reason you chose these two races instead of others or are you working on others like IMCHOO and IMLOU as well? Just curious.

You parse it from a pdf? Those are usually very tricky! I wrote some code to get the results from ironmans. Swim, bike, run, T1 and T2 times for each athlete. Done just for pretty much all ironmans of the last 5 years (but would work for 70.3's as well), but Vichy last year for a long time the results were only posted as a pdf and I didn't get it to work.

Any update to Wisc start list....yes I sent my pay pal money! I used to do this would take days! 5 bucks you can have this every race I do for this list! Thanks.

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2024: Bevoman, Galveston, Alcatraz, Marble Falls, Santa Cruz

This stuff is so awesome man, thank you. I'll happily donate for an IM Chatt sheet too!

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Too old to go pro but doing it anyway
http://instagram.com/tgarvey4

Ryan - this is awesome. I sent you a donation. Thank you.

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David
* Ironman for Life! (Blog) * IM Everyday Hero Video * Daggett Shuler Law *
Disclaimer: I have personal and professional relationships with many athletes, vendors, and organizations in the triathlon world.

Are you sure?

Toothengineer (brendan loehr) is on the participant list for July 5th but isn't in your spreadsheet. There's a few others I can name as well.

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blog

There was at least 1 duplicate on the IM Florida one as well. (same name with same results displayed 3 times in a row). For example. M45-49, David Roth #93, #94, and #95. I guess that means there are "<=487" in age group instead of "489".

My name is on the list, which is great! I'm in the mid-140s on the list. I'm a mid-pack finisher (12 hour).
What does the list / ranking mean?
How is it sorted?
What does column B (USAT Score) mean? Etc.
Other than seeing my name and some of my past results displayed, is this psych sheet mostly a ranking for those who plan to be Kona bound as they eye their competition?... and for determining # of Kona slots in the given age groups.

Same - I'd love to have this for Chattanooga. A couple of girls I coach are racing and potentially in the mix for Kona slots.

AMEN!

Yea, I misread when I had last updated...it was from the May 1 start list. So, it's updated now with the July 5 start list.

David Roth showed up 3 times in the start list pdf Ironman published, so that's why it is duplicated. I just manually fixed it.

It is roughly sorted by previous finish position within age group at Ironman or Half Ironman events with more weight given to recent performances. The times are informational...hard to use them given course differences and shortened segments. The USAT score is the USAT Ranking number...and asterisk means the score is from less than 3 USAT results (3 results are needed for an official ranking).

I originally did this to see who the competition was for Kona slot...so the algorithm probably does good at putting likely contenders at the top of the list. I haven't created something to compare the prediction to the results to see how it fares further down the list.

Weird, I was on the list but now I diapered in the Men's 30-34 for IMWI.... Andrew Lashlee

you're on the 35-39 tab, weird

https://www.teamusa.org/usa-triathlon/rankings/rankings-criteria

I updated the original post with psych sheets for the requested additional races...some are from start lists a month ago:

Ironman Wisconsin Psych Sheet (July 5 start list)


Ironman Florida Psych Sheet (August 1 start list)


Ironman Louisville Pysch Sheet (August 9 start list)


Ironman Chattanooga Psych Sheet (July 3 start list)


Ironman Maryland Psych Sheet (July 2 start list)

This is pretty cool. The rankings on the AG tabs? Is that supposed to represent the "performance" rankings within that AG? So, I'm 45-49, and ranked 7th on list. Is that supposed to roughly estimate a 7th place finish in that AG? Just curious what that means, if anything. Thanks for doing this!

Yea, it's an estimated finish order based on past performances at IM and HIM events. It's meant to be directional in nature since it can be hard to compare across years and courses.

Would be interesting to compare your list with the race day results just to see how everyone did. It is this kind of data I have been looking for as someone who is pursuing Kona. Always wonder about the competition. At any rate, what are the odds of you doing one for IMAZ this year?

Here you go: Ironman Arizona

I can’t see how I can donate? This is great stuff.

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I'm closer to the feathered end of the spear than the point.

Thanks! There's a link at the top of each sheet: "Useful? Consider a $5 donation to support this project."

Oh, boy! Someone is sicker than me! I complied a list of results for the guys in my AG to see how I stack up against them. Now, you did this for all these races and for all AGs! Nice job!

While the start lists haven't changed, the race results have changed since you ran the numbers... I was looking at IMWI and a gal that raced IM Santa Rosa is entered but her IMSR results are not populated...


Cool tool... thanks!

Right - these are all using results/data from 2017. I will have to make some updates to get the latest 2018 data incorporated.

Per a request, I added a psych sheet for Ironman Cozumel. That start list was in a slightly different format, and it took some more manual effort to parse out the names and countries...hopefully most of the data is there.

Got it... still super helpful!

I can't believe I missed that. I was on my iPad, that's my story. Money sent.

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I'm closer to the feathered end of the spear than the point.

Could you update IMMD with bib list? Donation sent!

Sorry, I'm not able to parse the bib lists right now because they are formatted slightly differently than the participant lists and are missing the exact age. I can look at doing that in the future, though. If there is a specific person or persons you want added, just message me their name/age/country, and I can update it.

Very cool. Shooting you a donation.

Can you go back and run this for prior races? I'd be interested to see how your projection compares to actual results and use that to improve the algorithm. I'd particularly be interested to see Lake Placid since I competed there.

Thanks for doing this.

If you have a participant list pdf (not the bib list), I can do that. Otherwise, I color coded first/second/third for Ironman Santa Rosa which I competed at. I improved the algorithm after that to better include HIM results. If people aren't on the start lists, I can't rank them. I haven't had a chance to try and programmatically update the sheets with the final results, but it is something I want to do...also want to try and parse the bib lists since they tend to have several people not on the last participant list posted.

Thank so much for doing this. I just donated.

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leslie myers
http://www.foodsensenow.com

so cool! thank you

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website/blog | Instagram

I just sent you the IMLP participant list via DM.

Thank you for doing this - money sent!

Would love to see these with the 2018 results included (and once an updated bib list is posted for IMAZ, ha!) I've tried to figure out how to make one of these and your Excel brain is definitely smarter than mine.

Cool stuff but does a half have anything to do with a full? Also, I don't know if it takes into account athletes that aged up this year....

Is it possible to update Chattanooga and Maryland? Thanks!

21. RODNEY SCOTT


2017:(100.850)(41m26s, 2h44m30s, 1h49m16s, 5h22m25s, 58)
2016:(101.291)
2015:(100.182)
2014:(99.394)
2013:(100.876)


This guy WON Ironman Boulder 2017 M40-44 AG with a time of 9h44. He's one of the favourites in this year's IMLOU M40-44.


Any chance to update the pysch sheet with 2018 race results as well?

I updated this one to include 2018 results. There is a Rodney Scott from USA and Canada...the one listed on the start list is from Canada and the one from Boulder is USA. I'm looking at name/country/age to keep track of people, so if these are the same people, that is why the result doesn't appear.

Sorry, I'm not set up to process the bib lists right now...they are formatted a little differently than the participant lists.

Yes, the first one I did was for Ironman Santa and didn't factor in 70.3 results. Rosa https://docs.google.com/.../edit#gid=1765503760 Some of the outliers in top performers were people with good 70.3 results but no full results, so I updated the algorithm to factor them in (although full still takes precedence).

anyway to update the IMFL list, i think it is updated once after your last post.

Could you do the updated Cozumel list? This is awesome. Donation incoming.

I was tracking M 55-59 last weekend IM Wisconsin. I believe 1 and 3 on the list took 1st and 2nd. Pretty damn good I'd say!

Pretty accurate for M 40-44 at Wisconsin, too. The spreadsheet predicted 1st, 2nd, and 4th exactly and a few others within the top 10.

Would it be possible for you to update the Cozumel list? A new participant list was released on October 1.

would be interesting to see what a sheet like this looked like for Kona this year. Just to see how the comp. stacks up in each age group?

Here it is:

https://forum.slowtwitch.com/forum/Slowtwitch_Forums_C1/Triathlon_Forum_F1/Ironman_World_Championship_Psych_Sheets_P6735585/?search_string=psych#p6735585


-Jason

Any chance you can update the Cozumel sheet? There is an Oct 1 participant list now posted. Would love to see where I stack up.

And, I have at least 4 friends told me they are switching to Coz from Florida due to the hurricane, so even that will change from 10/1. I bet Coz has its highest participation yet.

Just wondering now that IMFL is moving to Haines City, are your friends still switching to Cozumel?

Would you mind update Cozumel? I have a converted spreadsheet for you to start with. It's converted from the Oct 1st update PDF using pdftoexcel.com. Thanks! I would gladly donate if you can help out. Thanks!

I will see if I can do something this weekend (have been in Kona). The main issue with the Cozumel list is that the names are on different lines (sometimes first name, sometimes last, sometimes both) so it takes more manual effort to get the input data right.

Yes they had already registered

I just updated the Cozumel sheet. It has some more of the 2018 results factored in now. Some results may be missing due to variations on how names are spelled in the results.

Thank you!

The IMAZ list was just updated. Any chance you can update it?

Sorry, I can't currently process the lists when they are in that format. I'm currently relying on age and country data. But I see that IM tends to strip that information when they produce the final bib list, so it's something I have in mind to address in the future. If there is a particular name you want me to add, I can do that.

Thank you!!!

Ryan, would you mind do this one more time? They just published a Nov participant list. I also converted it to Excel there. Thanks in advance!

I would just need a little help in cleaning up the data this time - remove all rows that aren't participant information and then everywhere there is a line break (first name, last name, and/or country on the following line) copy/paste the information into the line above (with a single space after existing content) so that it is one row per athlete...and then delete the dangling row. It is a fair amount of manual effort, but I can update the rankings if someone does the above for me.

Thank you for doing this. The sheets are great.

I updated the Cozumel sheets with the information you provided...it's using race results before Kona, so that's why you won't see Kona Starter information accurate for this year.

I went ahead and included all the 2018 Ironman results to-date, including Kona. I don't have a list of people already qualified for 2019 Kona, though...can't imagine there are many at this race.

Updated for 2019, starting with Ironman Texas

Needed this motivation to go get the long run in.. thanks!!!

Added Ironman Santa Rosa. I don't see a start list for Kona yet, so I can't add that information right now.

I wouldn’t bet against my bud Colin in the 35-39 AG at Santa Rosa.

Any chance you’ll do this for IM Norway? It’s a smaller field of racers.

---

Blog: http://262toboylstonstreet.blogspot.com/
https://twitter.com/NateThomasTri
Coaching: https://bybtricoaching.com/ - accepting athletes for 2023

How often do you update these psych sheets? Looking forward to checking out the latest for Santa Rosa since it's almost sold out.

Thanks!

I noticed the start list for Kona 2019 has been posted, so I've updated IM Texas and IM Santa Rosa to show who has already qualified. Santa Rosa came out with a new start list at the end of last month, but the new format of the document (listing state instead of country) doesn't work with how I have things setup right now. I might be able to re-work it at some point. If you have a particular name you want me to add, I can do that.

Will you do be doing one for Boulder? If so, when do you think?

texas has 80 slots, if you want to changed your first page

Thanks - I fixed it.

I created one here: Ironman Boulder Psych Sheet That participant list has state/region/province instead of country, so I just ignored it when trying to make sure I was looking at the right athlete. So, for two athletes with the same name in different countries, I'm not making a distinction right now.

jssvnstr wrote:

Will you do be doing one for Boulder? If so, when do you think?

I'd love to chip in a donation for IM Mount Tremblant.

These are really great. Thanks for continuing to pump them out for us. Hope everybody who benefits from them keeps donating!

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Too old to go pro but doing it anyway
http://instagram.com/tgarvey4

I'd love to see a Mont Tremblant one as well:)

This is one of the best posts i have ever seen in slowtwitch forums. Thanks for this great work.

Personal request, if possible, Ironman Frankfurt, as it is European Championship, and lots of potential. Asking for a friend ;)

Just wanted to give a shout out to the accuracy of your algorithm.
Even though this was my first IM brand race (so just off my USAT scores) you were only one (1) place off my result.
So if anyone is looking to get an idea of where you may end up this is a great resource.

Updated the original post with a few more psych sheets with the latest start lists. I will have to update my program to do this for some other races with start lists that are formatted differently.


Ironman Wisconsin Psych Sheet (April 5 start list)
Ironman Maryland Psych Sheet (March 4 start list)
Ironman Lake Placid Psych Sheet (March 1 start list)

Thanks for doing these! Although now I wish I wouldn't have transferred out of IMLP.

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Dimond Bikes Superfan

Happy to make a sizable donation for IM Cork, if that one's a possibility :) Good work!

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Strava

Where it says "Kona Qualified" is that for 2019?

Yes

Jesus M30-34 at LP is stacked. So much for hoping 9:4X would get me in the ballpark.

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Editor-in-Chief, Slowtwitch.com | Twitter

There isn't a race where that AG isn't stacked.

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blog

This is the worst at Placid I've seen in a couple of years. Naturally, some people will have bad days, and the numbers will shake themselves out some.

Clearly this means I just need to suck it up and race whatever the regional champs are if I want to really roll the dice on a slot.

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Editor-in-Chief, Slowtwitch.com | Twitter

This is awesome. donated. Thank you!

Placid is stacked in 30-34 (I’m the 5th). Plus it doesn’t look like we’ll get a roll down from any other AG. On the flip side last year 1st didn’t take his spot and it rolled down to like 8th.

I was surprised by the ranking. I would have Matt Malone ranked 1. No one above him has come anywhere near the performance he had at KONA last year.

Jake didn’t take the slot last year at Louisville? Looks like he won 25-29.

It’s going to be fun! It’s a brutal course and we know we’ll get the full distances in each leg and that could change things a lot for sole guys. No soft pedaling to draft the whole ride and run fast on this course.

You’re correct, I didn’t take the slot at IM Louisville last year. I’m going to race in the pro field this year so decided to pass on it. I think there is another pro or two who are on the 30-34 list who shouldn’t be as well.

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https://www.strava.com/athletes/4391866

OH SWEET BABY JEEBUS THANK YOU.

(And good luck.)

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Editor-in-Chief, Slowtwitch.com | Twitter

Well then, best of luck Jake. Now I can root for ya!

Curious who else on that list do you think will be racing pro instead of AG?


Scott

30-34 is the age group of death for ironman. Usually a solid field with only two slots per race. I was so happy to get into 35-39 last year. IMO some of the fast guys back off 35-39 at the IM distance because of starting families.

My two year-old daughter will be happy so long as she gets to see the lead motorcycles at some point. And as long as I don't take forever and a day on the run.

My track record would suggest she has better chances of success at the former versus the latter.

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Editor-in-Chief, Slowtwitch.com | Twitter

Another one relieved to hear 30-34 might be slightly less stacked than the psych sheet makes it look! I took a year off racing tri last year, did some unstructured training and finally went sub 3 for an open marathon last fall. I’ve been putting together a pretty strong base/build towards IMLP since then and was hoping a perfect race might get me in the KQ ballpark. Still looks like it’s going to be a strong field, but looking forward to it!

I’m pretty sure Max Biessman who is 30-34 is listed on it at 24 is racing pro as is Adam Feigh who is listed on the 25-29 tab.

Thanks! Should be a fun day out there!

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https://www.strava.com/athletes/4391866

So is Todd Burns, 35-39

+1

Maryland has an updated list (as of 5/8/19). Can you please update the sheet?

thank you

This list is very cool and awesome to see how things stack up, but unless I have a major malfunction catastrophy, I will not be 222 in the 40-44 group... hoping for a 10h30 time or better if the day goes well to plan.

I have not done a full since 2015 so I am assuming this affects overall rankings.

+1

Happy to see this getting updated for 2019. Eager to see the IMFL breakdown later this year

Someone say IMFL :-)

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2024: Bevoman, Galveston, Alcatraz, Marble Falls, Santa Cruz

Think we’re in different AG’s :) also aged out of Steve’s AG too, I think, just in case he’s doing it again

You are a glutton for punishment!!

I did not say I was racing just a ":-)"

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2024: Bevoman, Galveston, Alcatraz, Marble Falls, Santa Cruz

ok lololol

I got old this year :-(

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2024: Bevoman, Galveston, Alcatraz, Marble Falls, Santa Cruz

This is me blowing you kisses Sean :-)

I think you SHOULD get crazy post Kona and race one last time in 2019 :-)

I am full of love and great ideas today.

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2024: Bevoman, Galveston, Alcatraz, Marble Falls, Santa Cruz

I aged up to the 35-39. Last time in PCB 4 guys went sub 9. I can’t go sub 9, but we’ll have to see who shows (why I’m eager to see the cheat sheet)

I think its a doable sub 9 course if weather cooperates and you bring A game. Should be stronger field then last year as well: will get some Europeans and some guys coming off Kona.

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2024: Bevoman, Galveston, Alcatraz, Marble Falls, Santa Cruz

You're funny. We'll see if I can enjoy the training for Kona or not (and if I can do well off that training). If not, I'm not sure I'll ever do another full. But if I do then who knows!

2017 conditions were pretty ideal, and 6 guys went under. 4 of them just happened to be in an AG with 3 slots. Fingers crossed for a cool day

Incredibly useful! Any chance you could add IM Canada?

x3 for hoping to have you go international and do a IM Cork

Hi! Could you please create a sheet for IM Louisville 2019?

I updated IM Maryland and added:

Ironman Canada Psych Sheet (May 1 start list)
Ironman Louisville Psych Sheet (May 8 start list)

A few I'm looking into:
Mont Tremblant - doesn't have a start list yet
Frankfurt and Cork - have start lists formatted differently, and I need to update the process to work with them

Any chance you could update Boulder now that the bib list is up??

Was there a donation option?

I know the start list isn't out yet for IM Norway (June 30), but it would be awesome if you could do that too. There were only around 600 finishers last year - don't know if it's a quicker process for less racers.

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Blog: http://262toboylstonstreet.blogspot.com/
https://twitter.com/NateThomasTri
Coaching: https://bybtricoaching.com/ - accepting athletes for 2023

This is great stuff! any idea when Arizona start list will be out?

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https://www.strava.com/athletes/11645943 https://www.instagram.com/timeforicecream/

Not sure when they'll post it, but I can create a psych sheet whenever it is.

There is a paypal link - hover over the text at the top of each page to get the link. Thanks!

I think the IM Maryland sheet may be off a tad. I notice a few names in the wrong age group.

The age groups are taken from the participant list: http://www.ironman.com/...and%205%208%2019.pdf

If something isn't matching with that, let me know.

You have me listed as #17 in M40-44, but I am in M35-39.

you have me in M50-54 should be M45-49

Same for me, you have me as 7th in 50-54... which is cool, but I am 45 (correct on the participant list). Maybe everyone is shifted one AG up on the sheet?

I see what happened - a new age group was introduced in the updated start list, and it didn't get updated in the sheets correctly. The lists were right, just the age groups were labeled wrong. It's fixed now. Thanks for noticing!

Any chance we will see a Cork list? Thanks

oh canada...
http://www.ironman.com/...ada%205%201%2019.pdf

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TEAM F3 Undurance

It is here: Ironman Canada Psych Sheet

florida too?

list: http://www.ironman.com/...da%205%2020%2019.pdf

Thanks, donation sent.
interesting to see some usat scores of 60s/70s ahead of 80s/90s

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TEAM F3 Undurance

Why can't IM just do the start lists by AG? I made it through the A's trying to cross reference my AG before saying "screw it".

I'll add another +1 for Cork :) thanks again this is great

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Strava

they like to make us work

Does anyone know if European IM's tend to post bib numbers very late? I'm doing my first European IM (Norway) in 3 1/2 weeks, and I emailed the race director about numbers. The response was that they would be posted a week prior to the race.

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Blog: http://262toboylstonstreet.blogspot.com/
https://twitter.com/NateThomasTri
Coaching: https://bybtricoaching.com/ - accepting athletes for 2023

Cork was just posted 1 or 2 days ago and we are 2.5 weeks out (June 23). Just my N=1 experience.

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Strava

Can you kindly do Chattanooga as well? Much appreciated

Any chance you'd be willing to do an Ironman Psych Sheet for Chattanooga for this year? :)

So.....any chance you’ll be doing Florida for this year?

I think its coming.

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2024: Bevoman, Galveston, Alcatraz, Marble Falls, Santa Cruz

I can not wait for Frankfurt, as the race is in 2 weeks, i would really appreciate if you could get this soon?

Let me know if i can help with whatever format in starting list you need, pretty proficient in excel if you need it on certain format.

Cheers, thanks again

I saw they have a participant list now, so I created a psych sheet for it here: 2019 Ironman Florida Psych Sheet

I would create one if it were straightforward. I try to match people on name, age, and country. I've had to remove the country constraint for some due to it not being available. I haven't updated things to look at an age group rather than a specific age. It is something I want to do as a lot of the final start lists drop the age information. I just need to find the time to make the appropriate changes to make it more flexible but not sure I'll get to it before your race.

This is great work you are doing. The majority seem to be US races though (timing, interest?). Any chance of doing one for IMUK?

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Practise doesn't make perfect, practice makes permanent. Only perfect practice makes perfect!

Thanks! Awesome to see we've got the highest athlete to KQ ratio haha. Also notice at least one pro name on there in the 35-39 AG. Probably because I don't think the pro start list is out yet. Really appreciate it though. Lot of work to be done haha

Thank you for doing this; you get my donation again this for this...... FL one I dont quite understand how a ex pro and a guy with USAT score in high 90's get pushed to 17th and 18th in rankings and 1st never has had significant results (m40-44). Guess thats how they fell in the algorithm? Normally they have seemed to be mostly spot on.

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2024: Bevoman, Galveston, Alcatraz, Marble Falls, Santa Cruz

I double checked, and it is working as expected. The rankings are meant to be directional rather than exact. For the people you mentioned, 1st is ranked that way because they are the only one with a top 5 IM finish in the last 2 years. 18th is ranked further down due to USAT rankings taking less precedence (not everyone in the world will have one). I count All American status for slightly more, but otherwise USAT score only comes into play after anyone with a top 20 IM in the last 5 years or a top 10 HIM in the last 5 years. One project I want to do is back test a lot of the results to see if my thresholds for top X finish in Y year for race distance Z can be improved or customized by division.

Yes, he is listed on the normal start list http://www.ironman.com/...da%205%2020%2019.pdf so that is why he's included.

Thanks - just time right now. I did the first one last year (IM Santa Rosa) for my own interests. The US races seem to be pretty standardized in terms of the data provided (i.e. last name, first name, gender, age, country line by line), so it is easy for me to parse those other races. When it deviates from this (no exact age, region instead of country, or data spanning multiple lines in a pdf), it isn't straightforward with what I have. I could match athletes on name only, but then I might be crediting one athlete with another athlete's results. I tried to do an analysis on IM and HIM from 2014-2018 and found:

There were 398,727 unique athlete names.
There were 25,023 names with more than one country.
There were 82,344 names with more than one division. (some of these would be people aging up)
There were 90,795 names with more than one country+division.
carlos martinez appeared in 10 countries.

PrimalSteve wrote:

This is great work you are doing. The majority seem to be US races though (timing, interest?). Any chance of doing one for IMUK?

Interesting it did not pull up my 5th place in 2017 at IMTX; so must be slightly off or something not pulling up right? Never to take anything away from way you do this since your the only way that does it... but not all placing are equal. Lets look at IMTX which at least to me always seem to have the most prev KQ'ers racing in it and is harder to place top 5 then other races. This list at certain spots does not seem to past the eyeball test. Ivan Dominguez is the clear cut favorite of m40-44. I would be awesome if you could run back end numbers to see how how the predictions pan out by a % or something. Once again thanks for doing what you do.

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2024: Bevoman, Galveston, Alcatraz, Marble Falls, Santa Cruz

No problem! I had a deeper look into what you are doing and realised that you are pulling data from USATF data which might cover a lot of the North American race entrants but is likely less of the overall field for IMUK anyway!

Keep up the good work!

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Practise doesn't make perfect, practice makes permanent. Only perfect practice makes perfect!

Thanks for mentioning the missing result. There was a bug in some new code when the athlete DNS'd/DNF'd in a particular year, which I've fixed. The sheet has been updated, and you are now #1 in M40-44 :)

I don't have the stats on accuracy, but spot checking, the podium finishers are normally near the top of the sheet. Where it misses is if someone wasn't on one of the participant lists but then ends up on the final start list.

For Ivan, it looks like he has raced as Pro, so when I look at if that name has been in M40-44, or M35-39 the last 5 years, it doesn't return any results. So Pro converting to Age Group is an edge case not covered right now.

Agree that some races are more difficult to place higher in than others and it's something I can look at in the future. For now, the algorithm is the same for all divisions and is meant to be directional (and works because there is normally a wide variety of ability in a race). I recognized that when doing the Psych Sheet for Kona last year (most people having placed in the top 5 to qualify)...I created a different algorithm for that one, but it still wasn't as accurate. Thanks for the feedback!

Yeah mine is going solely off USAT ranking and not showing the two IM results I have (not a complaint at all). I'd imagine once the pro list comes out Colin and Ivan will come off AG rankings

Oh I got it: all the pros are falling into the ag just on the bib list and he is running off that.... ha I did not even know FL had a pro field! .... I should not have said anything I dont like being bumped to #1 in my AG, so much for flying under the radar.

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2024: Bevoman, Galveston, Alcatraz, Marble Falls, Santa Cruz

That’s just my guess because both of them raced in the pro field in Boulder. I’m okay with being as low as I am, not that results would bump me up much higher.

Random question: is there some common sense way to figure out what my approximate ranking would be in your algorithm BEFORE I sign up? Like comparing my IM and HIM finishes and or my USAT ranking to the competition. For example I was considering entering IM MD after a disastrous Cork race and wanted to see if I would even have a shot for the podium in M35-39.


Thanks!

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Strava

You can't determine if you actually have a shot just by looking at the list?

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blog

Can you do a 70.3WC one?

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http://www.TriScottsdale.org

I just updated the sheet with the June 7 start list. If you were on it, you would be 7th.

A vague notion, yes, but unless I've raced the people on the list before it's tough to tell whether I would be ranked, say, 2nd or 10th based on just USAT scores and previous finish times/places

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Strava

Awesome thanks! I'll make another donation

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Strava

FYI I think the AGs are shifted by one tab on the IM MD sheet. So for example the M35-39 folks are actually under the M40-44 tab. Seems to be shifted like this across the board

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Strava

Thanks, I fixed it.

IM canada released the bib list. any chance you could update IM Canada.

Start list is up for IMMT.

Happy to keep paying my annual contribution if they gave you a format you can work with (or if they didn't).

Thanks again for all of these!

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Too old to go pro but doing it anyway
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Anyway, you could update IM Louisville? The start list updated on 7/8/19.

Thanks!

Seconded!

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Jeffrey Sankoff, MD
TriDoc Coaching/TriDoc Podcast
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I will try to update it in the next day or two. In the meantime, I generated a new one for Ironman Chattanooga.

Your work is super cool. I don't do IMs and wondered about the slots, odds of getting a slot, roll downs, etc.. Seeing it in a spreadsheet makes it so clear.

Good on you.

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Indoor Triathlete - I thought I was right, until I realized I was wrong.

I've updated it with the July 9 start list: Ironman Louisville Psych Sheet

Thanks for the update, although I am in the start list, i could not find myself in the updated sheet.

Will you be doing one for AG Nationals again this year. I swear the announcers were using your Psych Sheets data.

I accidentally forgot to use the new start list when updating. It's fixed now - thanks!

I went ahead and generated them, similar to last year. I posted on that thread, but here they are:

Olympic Distance Psych Sheet
Sprint Distance Psych Sheet

Thanks so much for doing this!

I think you may have used the Sprint start sheet for both the Sprint and Olympic. They have the same people listed. It also looks like tab for at least the 50-54 and 50-55 are mislabeled since the 50-54s are on the 55-59 tab. 50-54 per the registration list shows 73 for the sprint and 167 for the Olympic.

Thanks for doing this! Anyway you will update IM Maryland? They have a fresh start list as of 8/2/2019.

Hey Ryan. Any chance you could add Arizona to your list? Thanks for all the good work

Any chance of getting to IMMT? Would be great to see with two weeks left till the race!

Thanks!

as someone not racing any of the races with a 2019 psych sheet, "wow, this is super cool".
as someone who will race one of the races in 2020 if you keep doing this (please do! it's amazing), "oh fk, this was a terrible idea to look at"

Hi Triryan, I have heard about your psych sheet work. I would love to send a donation if you are able to produce one for IMMT. Regards,

Any chance on updating the IMWI psych sheet now that the bib list is updated? Appreciate it!

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Eric Engel | http://www.ironmandiary.com
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I am still seeing start list as of June 4th - maybe my computer is pulling an old cached copy? Is a new one really up?

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Strava

Second the motion to update IM_MD. Thanks.

Do you have a link to this? I only see the June 4 participant list on the Ironman race site.

I second the request for IMWI update!

Here is the link to the new IM Maryland start list.

https://www.ironman.com/...and%206%204%2019.pdf

**Nevermind they switched back to 6/4

I now see the list for 6/4/2019 again, either i have misread it, or it changed back or something. I will email the race director to update it if possible.

Thanks

Ironman Maryland. The age group bib list is up now, updated as of 8/12/2019. As the race is at the end of next month. Could you give this is try?

Thanks

Out of curiosity, is it possible to put a psych sheet together for 70.3 WC in Nice? Start list for men below

https://www.ironman.com/...%208%2013%202019.pdf

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Strava

I see you did a Kona psych sheet last year...will you be doing one again this year?

I'm not currently able to parse the pdfs when they are in the bib list format. If you send me your name and age, I can add you to the current list I have.


I'm not able to parse the format of this list, either. I hope to be more flexible in the future.


Yes, I can try to do that and am able to parse the list they've posted. The predictions weren't as accurate, though, because there wasn't as much differentiation in past top performances.

Scott Hansen
37

Thanks!

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Strava

May we please get an IMAZ sheet?

Here you go: Ironman Arizona Psych Sheet

At AZ M40-44 is stronger field then 35-39; I thought getting older might make this easier! #fail

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2024: Bevoman, Galveston, Alcatraz, Marble Falls, Santa Cruz

Hey, could you please update Luisville?
They published the final list here - https://www.ironman.com/...uisville%20final.pdf

18 of the top 25 at IMWI were between 35 & 49. Welcome to the gauntlet.

Yes, I would also appreciate the Louisville update. Thanks for your great work!

When you get a chance, possible to update IMFL with the new start list?

The randomness of the strength of field at any given IM race seems to be high and getting higher. Are you doing both FL and AZ?

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Dimond Bikes Superfan

Possible; but if FL goes well probably not....... you?

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2024: Bevoman, Galveston, Alcatraz, Marble Falls, Santa Cruz

I will be cheering you on from afar while you race Florida! Free up a spot for me at IMAZ! LOL!

Definitely not both! Possibly one or the other, with AZ being much more likely, but I’ve been dealing with a run injury that won’t go away, hard to say if I’ll be able to train properly.

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Dimond Bikes Superfan

Just don’t crash in front of me like you did in Wisconsin... Just kidding, see you at FL. Also thanks on the aero bar recommendations a while back, big change

Oh yea let’s not have that happen again please!!! No bike mechanicals either.

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2024: Bevoman, Galveston, Alcatraz, Marble Falls, Santa Cruz

I find it’s often the battle of who can show up to the start line in one piece. 😭

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2024: Bevoman, Galveston, Alcatraz, Marble Falls, Santa Cruz

Possible to get a updated IM Florida Psych Sheet?

:-))))))))) Same

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2024: Bevoman, Galveston, Alcatraz, Marble Falls, Santa Cruz

Sorry, I'm not able to parse the bib-list format. If you have start list since May 20 that has "Last Name / First Name / Gender / Age / Country" by row, then message me it, and I can process a new version. Or, if you are on the start list and not on the psych sheets, send me your information, and I can add you manually.

I did go ahead and update the psych sheet with the latest race results and USAT rankings from 2019.

Any chance one last psych sheet of the year for Indian Wells 70.3?

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2024: Bevoman, Galveston, Alcatraz, Marble Falls, Santa Cruz

Well psych sheet was pretty spot on for the people that registered for the race when sheet come out for FL..... Did not account for all the late European Entries that showed up on race day!

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2024: Bevoman, Galveston, Alcatraz, Marble Falls, Santa Cruz

Would love to see an updated Arizona list. Thanks!

Accurate for IMFL? Really? What AG? In M40-44 I believe only 3 in the top 10 on the sheet made it in the top 25.

But all the guys that where in top 5's across the board m30-45 where mostly not on the psych sheet to start.

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2024: Bevoman, Galveston, Alcatraz, Marble Falls, Santa Cruz

Is it too early to see a first cut of St. George?

Any chance we may see a St. George psych sheet?

Ironman needs to release the participant list first. I've been waiting forever. Same for Oceanside.

IM has released the participants list for IM TX 2020. Are you planning on doing a psych sheet for that?

Either way, really appreciate what you've done in this area. Thanks!

Looks like the St George athlete list is up, were you planning on doing psych sheets for races this year?

Thanks for these! Looking forward to 2020, specifically St George.

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Team Zoot So Cal

To the top in hope Ryan produces these for 2021 and upcoming races!!

X2

I'll paypal $20 if he does one for Gulf Coast 70.3. lol.

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@floathammerholdon | @partners_in_tri

I know there’s a PayPal link on the old sheets...maybe $20 will get his attention...?

Thanks for the interest here - I haven't maintained this in the last year and a half, so it would need a little work (and finding the time to do it between work and a two year old). I'll see what I can do but not sure by when.

I will volunteer to help out!

I'm sorry, but I call bullshit on this. I showed up at boulder and the individuals who were predicted, according to your algorithm, did well, but an outlier like myself....may show up, and may just crush the dream of qualifying, I have raced ironman since 1987, and Kona qualified since 1988, prior to any algorithm. My, most likely outdated, belief, if you hope to qualify, go race and not think about qualifying, because on any day, any one can show up and have a quality race and you may or may not have the race you want. Race, commit, race hard, dig deep, and hope to have a great day, and in the last 10 miles, think how bad do you want it.

Call bullshit on what? What do you think he's doing exactly? He's pulling together all the public race data for everyone on the start list, not claiming to see the future. A lot of people like to see that info and are grateful he complies it. I'm sure he's sorry though that he can't manufacture a forecast out of thin air based on how bad you want it.

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Me: https://carnivoreendurance.blogspot.com/...ever-comes-next.html

Latest: Colorectal Cancer is in the News Again. Don't Blame Red Meat
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alternatively: "hey, thanks for the work you put into this! can you explain the algorithm to me?"

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____________________________________
https://lshtm.academia.edu/MikeCallaghan

http://howtobeswiss.blogspot.ch/

you are right, it is good work. I am sure it is appreciated. thank you for compiling the data.

Have qualified since 88 and you are an outlier?

yes, according to the list, I wasn't even in the top 75, and the second place age grouper not even in the top 100, if I read the list correct. To clarify, I think there are individuals, who are not the "professional age grouper, " who come out to race, not every year, not every decade, but can certainly upset the predictions. Call me superstitious, after doing the training, more often than not, the times I thought I had a good chance of qualifying based on looking at the lists of individuals, I did not qualify. Every time I went to have my best race, with no expectation, I often times did qualify.

These sheets/lists aren't predictions. They're basically start lists and have ratings of the folks who are on the start list based on recent-ish past results. I know plenty of people who have looked at these lists and psyched themselves out of contention simply thinking that they're going to lose because they're ranked lower than others in the field. Hence "psych sheet".

Show up and race and let the chips fall where they may.

If you are approaching a race with the goal of a KQ or podium, it is very helpful to use this as a starting point for gauging the competition. It’s absolutely true that AGers that are showing up at the last minute or have been inactive for years can skew the results. These are very useful directionally, and tactically—if you see someone that looks 5 minutes slower than you on the run and they pass you at 90 miles on the bike, you need to react accordingly.

You can supplement the recon by visiting obstri.com and looking up individual people and seeing their history.

I really appreciate the work by the creator of the Psych Sheets.

Just donated in hopes that there is a chance for a 70.3 Worlds psych sheet. Regardless, I've used them in the past and your work is much appreciated!

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Mark Saroni
____________________________________________________________
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