Why stop at the Tour? He will probably win the vuelta aswell and then keep on winning for the next few years until someone finds a way to become an even bigger alien.

I'll bet he skips the Vuelta this year regardless of how the Tour goes, but you never know.

I think the bigger question is whether he wins in the courts vs on the tarmac!

personally i see 4 x TdF + giro and vuelta for the full set as greater than 5 x TdF, even without the extra prestige of holding all 3 at once.
i know much of the world is solely focused on the TdF but that's their problem ;)
just trying for the giro bought froome a lot of kudos from me

i agree though, i'd still rate froome as #1 favourite - he has the all round performance, he has the team and he and sky have shown that most times when they target a GT they win it.
of the major rivals, dumoulin also has the giro in his legs and doesn't have the team or history of success; movistar el tridente will lose time in the TTs as with bardet and none of them have shown the ability to put big time into froome in the mountains; nibali is always a bit of a wildcard; adam yates is unproven; porte always seems to find a way to fail...

there's certainly more potential coming into this tour than recent years though - froome might have miscalculated; the opening week has pitfalls to take someone out, most particularly the cobbles; el tridente might attack enough to break the sky train; porte might finally have luck on his side... unfortunately the TTT shifts the balance back to sky as the only team that can really combine a top TTT squad with serious mountain support

I'll start out by saying that I'm not a Froome fan, but I think barring a crash or sickness, it's pretty much a given that Froome will roll into Paris wearing yellow.

Nothing is for sure. So many variables in bike road racing.

There has not been a Giro/Tour winner in a very long time - really in the more modern era of the sport.

Others have tried, but failed in either the giro and/or the Tour and come up short (even those of suspicion - Contador, Armstrong et al). Will Froome be different?

---

---

Steve Fleck @stevefleck | Blog

Huh? Armstrong raced the Giro once, & it was during his final comeback. I’d hardly say he was trying for a double.

How is Richie Porte doing this year? Until his crash in the TDF last year he was looking really strong. I don't follow cycling enough but, if he has a good team, and he's in top shape, he might be in with a chance?

Porte is hauling at the Tour de Suisse...but it's a one week stage race, not 3 week. 3 weeks is another animal.

Assuming he gets by without any major catastrophe, he certainly is the favorite. Nibs is looking good, but I just don't think he has the team. Bardet has looked great this spring, but his losses in the ITT and TTT will be too much to overcome. Tom D is a killer, but how he responds to back to back grand tours is an unknown. I really do hope Richie stays out of trouble and is able to ride to his potential. I think he is the only rider with a team that can compete with Froome and Sky. The Movistar trifecta will be interesting, but the whole concept of the team not having a leader is going to be trouble. At any rate, I don't think any one of the Movistar boys could when any way.

All of that and we arrive back at Froome and Sky. Sky has multiple riders who could win a grand tour in their own right. I think his biggest threat will be due to issues from the AAF. I wish that would get resolved one way or another.

Porte is looking very good indeed.

I just remembered about Rigo Uran. Cannondale isn't the strongest team, but Rigo rode a killer race last year and can time trial relatively well. He hasn't raced much this year that I've seen. Any betters want to jump on the Uran train or was last year an aberration.

I was glad to see Uran finish 2nd last year, but it was a case of catching lightning in a bottle.

There's not another rider who can beat Froome right now. But there are other things (crashes, sickness, the on going drug case) that he and team Sky cannot control. I'd bet money on him winning, but I wouldn't bet the whole farm.

---

"Human existence is based upon two pillars: Compassion and knowledge. Compassion without knowledge is ineffective; Knowledge without compassion is inhuman." Victor Weisskopf.

Rigo has finished on the Podium twice at the Giro as well so he is no slouch. Should their be any issues with Froome, I actually think Geraint Thomas could win.

I don't think it's a foregone conclusion. "Barring a crash or sickness" is also leaving a lot of room for excuses. A lot of sickness can be attributed to a weak immune system. You know...from the immense stress of riding and trying to win two consecutive GTs, as well as trying to stay down at race weight for a longer period of time than normal. Also, being involved in a crash significantly increases when you're not riding at or near the front. GC riders are often tempted to ride mid back and get a better draft benefit, but the strongest riders don't always want to take that chance. Even while descending, it's much less common for the guy near the front to go down as compared to the guys trying to press just to keep up.

Also the cobbled stages and chances of getting caught out in crosswinds are real issues. Even though Nibali won in 2014 by a 7+ minute margin, he put 2 minutes on the rest of his GC competition on the cobbles stage. The next year Quintana lost 1:28 in the crosswinds during stage 2...and ended up losing the GC by 1:12.

This is bike racing where there are tons of unexpected variables that come into play and eventually decide placings. Thomas nearly lost control of the Dauphine when he flatted in the final 40 km and the race was on. Usually the fittest rider wins, but not always. That's why they don't decide the TdF on Zwift.

I do believe Froome risked being a 5x tour winner for the chance at the Giro/Tour double as well as trying to hold all 3 GTs at the same time. Even if Froome doesn't win this year's tour, his accomplishments so far in his career are more impressive (to me) than if he skipped the Giro and won this year's TdF.

Seems like there are some odds makers in Europe offering 2/1 on Froome. Maybe time to mortgage the house?

---

No. I do not think Froome will win the TdF. He might have the strongest GT team and the best puffer in his pocket, but there are too many other variables involved in bike racing. Luck- you have to have it in spades. And a stronger overall field will not allow him the leash that gave him his excellent Floyd day out.

Not only that but Nibiali exhibited an amazing display of all-around skill that year while everyone else crashed themselves around him. To me that, along with Contador’s last Vuelta win, were among the best GTs in recent memory. They won with skill and tactical noir as opposed to going uphill the fastest after following teammates around all day.

In the modern age of specialization, I will be shocked if he can. No one has managed that since the uncontrolled epo days of Indurain and Pantani and whether or not Sky is clean, the modern era can't get away with what they did then. So then you have to go back to Hinault and the last time he did it, they created a fairly easy, TT heavy course to favor Moser and Hinault beat them at their own game in the Giro and then ran away in the Tour that featured like 5 individual time trials. The Giro no longer thinks of itself (ascribing traits to a thing) as 2nd banana to the Tour, even if stats would say otherwise, so the courses have been very difficult. I would not bet money on him. Not that I would ever bet money on anything...
Chad

Don't forget we have cobbles again this year!

Somebody probably already said that but I didn't have time to read the whole thread..

Assuming the Giro was all fair and square, he timed his form perfectly to that he peaked in the 3rd week, as everyone else was tiring.
I don't see how he can then rest, re-build and come back a 5 weeks later and still be on top form.

Contador won the Giro a few years ago and would have been a massive favorite for the Tour, but just looked lethargic the whole time. I think the same could happen in the Tour to Froome. Unless of course it wasn't a natural form peak in the last week of the Giro...

Rigo has Rolland who is going well. Porte has Tejay who is going well and has the right temperament for pulling back breaks on behalf of the team.

I'm pulling hard for Rigo. Class guy.

Froome's been having gravity issues, that's what made the Floyd-away necessary

Geratin Thomas also collided with a planet in the Dauphine Prologue [OK, it was a glancing blow, as he kinda skidded along the surface], and got up lickety-split to almost win the thing right there

SKY will be solid and committed for Le Tour [not like last year, when everyone wondered if or when Landa was gonna go rogue]. If Froome can't start, or crashes out, they'll just move the next man up and dominate with him

Or not, who knows?

---

"What's your claim?" - Ben Gravy
"Your best work is the work you're excited about" - Rick Rubin

we need my namesake back!

The Giro - La Tour double hasn't worked for most GC contender people in the last decade or so. . . .

Right you are, but Sky might just have it cracked...maybe Froome will pull an Adam Hansen and complete 20 grand tours in a row, except he will win every one!

Drugs.....lots of them! May as well call him Nikki Sixx over te next few weeks.

Indeed. Let's hope bike handling and moxie matter. As for Sky, there's a special place in hell...just kidding. Don't want to demonize what are basically a bunch of super talented athletes doing their thing for a team with a lot of dough. It's just that I like rooting for the underdogs.

Nibs is flying under the radar again. Has a solid team and panache. I would not bet against him.

This year is different. TDF is pushed back one week so not to compete so long with the world cup. That extra week rest after the Giro will help Froome a lot, and unless he crashes, gets sick, he is sure to win again.

The interesting thing about the mountains this year is that I'm not sure Froome will have the same advantages of having a strong team in the mountains as he normally does. Sky has always gone to the front and just set such a hard tempo that nobody could attack from more than 5 km out. And even if you did wait until late when the Sky team slowly peeled off, you were so tired from the hard tempo that you didn't have much left in the tank to make an attack that could create significant time gaps.

This tactic of Sky only works though if you assume you have the strongest GC rider in the field. It doesn't make sense to set a ridiculously hard tempo if all you are doing is forcing Froome to struggle behind and become exposed to fresher GC contenders like Nibali, Quintana, Porte, etc.

So I'm wondering if Sky will back down the tempo a hair, and open up more opportunities for others. Or maybe Froome really is an alien?

I agree with your sentiments. Baring an catastrophe (sickness, crash, etc), he will win. His team is very strong and, in the high hills nobody is his equal.

i don't understand the logic of this thread. if this thread had been posted on the friday morning prior to stage 19 i don't believe anyone would be calling froome a favourite. he was inconsistent, was getting dropped, and was considered done in the giro.
80km solo TT and now he is untouchable.

nairo tried the double. contador tried the double. both of them got pounded by a fresher SKY squad that had the legs 3 weeks into the TDF.

froome did not have an "easy" giro by any stretch of the imagination. A lot of stress was piled on in that last week. That is going to make him fatigued coming into the TDF and vulnerable from the get go. Most GT riders "ride" into form through the 3 week tour. He will have the opposite problem going on.

Nonetheless, it should make things interesting to watch.

froome has been the standout GT rider for 5 years. he was off-form for much of the giro but that is just more reason why he is a strong contender to do the rare double - he clearly did not peak for the giro the way he normally would, instead holding back on the form so that he should be in a better position to recover and peak again for the tour.
if anything, if he hadn't done that monster stage 19 we might think him even more the favourite for the tour as he would have just been using the giro as training.

at least that's one way of looking at it, we will see in a month or so...

I would be shocked if he rode into yellow. It’s been so long since the double Giro/Tour has been done that I believe in this cycling era it’s become impossible. Last I remember a real favorite giving it a go was Contador tried the double, looked decent half way through but fell later in the tour. There’s just too deep a field out there. Especially with team BMC having a pretty formidable one two punch. I’m looking to Porte to win.

---

I still lapped everyone on the couch!

Most years I would agree with this. However, this year is bit different with one additional week in between the Giro and tour, plus the team TT will eliminate some of the threats (ie., Bardat). That additional one week is huge.

BMC with Porte winning would not surprise me. I saw today in the Tour dr Slovenie Rigo won the stage and took the overall lead over an attacking Roglic and Impey. Certainly not the deepest of field but with some good guys attacking it looked good for Rigo. Still don't think his team is strong enough for GC win at the Tour though unless something major happens.

Quintana looked good today as well taking the stage win with Porte retaining the overall lead in the Suisse. Tejay and GVA looked excellent though limiting the losses for Porte.

I pretty much agree with this, but I think the biggest factor in Froome's favor is the TTT. Sky sent notice to the rest of the peloton at the Dauphine with that effort and proved they can field an amazing TTT team that can also provide mountain support. I think there's a good chance we are about to see the best Quintana we've seen yet, but the TTT + ITT combo coupled with the concerns around Landa's priorities might put him just out of reach. Uran should be a contender but the team will not be competitive with Sky's TTT, same for Nibali, Bardet, Fuglsang, etc... Domoulin and Porte with their talents and teams, however, are real threats. Domoulin will have to deal with fatigue just like Froome so advantage probably goes to Sky with the better team. Porte may actually have bike handling issues that could prove costly on the cobbles (I'm nowhere near skilled enough to call out a pro rider's skills, so I'll leave it at a maybe), but barring a crash I think he is the favorite to unseat Froome.
*Oh yeah, I put Thomas on slightly lower footing than Porte as the next most likely to unseat Froome based on having the exact same team and being fresh with great form.

---

Powertap / Cycleops / Saris

Man, I would love to see Quintana win the TdF, but after the last couple of years I'm not convinced he can do it. Physically I think he can, but from what I've seen I don't think he has a winner's mentality.....he seems to fold up to easily. The best fight I've seen from him was on Alpe d'Huez in 2015 but he seems to be missing that ever since.

I think he used to have that mentality for sure, but it feels like something has rattled his confidence in the past couple years and he has developed some self doubt. Hopefully this success at Suisse will inspire that confidence again, I too would love to see Quintana win the GC overall.

---

Powertap / Cycleops / Saris

Fernando Gaviria is going to win.

Porte is really looking strong here in switzerland. On thursday he surged very hard and very long. Went out of the saddle and just kept pushing until everyone was in pieces.
Yesterday he was also strong and closed a lot of the gap to Quintana rather quickly (but not entierly). The TT tomorrow should be no problem for him.

I have no idea if he can keep the form or hold himself together as the captain in a grand Tour. But I hope he does well. With Küng and Dennis the TTT should be fine.

Also nice that Quintana tried something yesterday. But I am not sure if he will so something similar in France.

My money would be on Froome. But I hope for Porte. Could be one of the best tours in recent years.

---

10k - 30:48 / half - 1:06:40

Very good analysis. I think that Quintana may end up being the guy wiht the best form, but he has the weaker TTT squad and Landa is effectively useless to him and may as well be on another team. It's almost worse that he is at Movistar as it removes a Quintana helper. Quintana COULD also lose time on the cobbles early. That's a wild card that could hurt many lighterweight guys!

Personally I would like to see Tom D or Porte do it. If Thomas was on another team, I'd be happy with him winning, but he's on the wrong team for me to be cheering for him.

I think he probably will win but wouldn't mind seeing it be more competitive... I'm just not sure who that would be... team and rider combo doesn't seem to be there for anyone else.

I sure he will take just enough asthma medicine to win!



.

---

Yellowfin Endurance Coaching and Bike Fits
USAT Level 1, USAC Level 3